Billionaires vs the ballot box: As Zohran Mamdani rises, the establishment plots his fall

Few expected Zohran Mamdani’s win in the New York Democratic primary for mayor.

What was predictable was that once he won, he would face an organised effort by his party’s establishment and conservatives to prevent him from winning in the general election.

Within hours of the 33-year-old pro-Palestinian democratic socialist’s upset win, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman wrote on social media that he was looking for someone to run against Mamdani and that he would fund a centrist candidate.

“New York City under Mamdani is about to become much more dangerous and economically unviable. Unlike our Federal government, NYC cannot print money, and this Federal Government won’t bail NYC out if things go bad,” wrote Ackman in a lengthy post on X, just after midnight Thursday morning, after Mamdani’s 24 June election night victory.

“In fact, Mamdani would be a windfall for the Republican Party as NY becomes another failed major city run by Democrats alongside Seattle, Chicago, LA, and SF et al as Senator Fetterman so eloquently stated today, ‘I'd describe it as Christmas in July for the GOP,’” he went on.

The billionaire wrote that there are hundreds of millions of dollars in capital to back a competitor to Mamdani “that can be put together overnight”, bizarrely sharing his game plan for buying an election that was democratically won.

The donor establishment

It's unclear why big-donor efforts to stop Mamdani is being done so publicly, given the largely low-profile nature of campaign finance that often puts tremendous effort into giving the impression of widespread grassroots support of their preferred candidates.

“At least we’re seeing it out in the open. This stuff has been going on behind the scenes for a long time,” J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told The New Arab.

“That’s the system we have, for better or for worse.”

In New York City, which has around 55 percent registered Democrats, 25 percent Republicans and around 20 percent unaffiliated or belonging to other parties, it is almost a given that the winner of the Democratic primary will win the general election.

Exceptions to this in recent history were the elections of Rudy Giuliani in 1993 and Michael Bloomberg in 2001, both of whom were Republicans while in office, but were Democrats at other times in their careers.

In recent years, with the cost-of-living skyrocketing in the city, left-wing policies, focusing on lower prices and social programmes, have become more popular. In the last mayoral election, centrist Eric Adams won, in large part because the left failed to consolidate behind one candidate.

Last week, Ackman called on Cuomo to drop out, saying that Adams, the incumbent mayor who was charged with bribery and fraud last year, was a more viable candidate.

The deadline has passed for names to be removed from the general election ballot, meaning Cuomo will remain on the ballot under the Fight and Deliver Party, which he formed for the purpose of the mayoral race.

Adding to the donors’ frustrations, Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee, who does not have a substantial following, has refused to drop out. With four months until the general election, the donors could very well find a completely new write-in candidate.

This tactic by the political establishment to coordinate to stop a popular progressive candidate isn’t new and has historically been highly effective.

For both presidential campaigns of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in 2016 and 2020, the more moderate Democrats consolidated to ensure he didn’t capture the Democratic nomination.

Growing grassroots politics

However, as the appetite for grassroots politics grows in the Democratic Party, with increased attention on billionaire donors, the last several years have seen some high-profile examples of lesser-funded candidates prevailing in elections.

One of the most notable recent examples was the 2018 congressional win of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in New York.

Even with the tide appearing to change, Mamdani still has his work cut out for him in building on his coalition, which currently largely consists of wealthy white liberals and youths.  

“Mamdani will have a fairly solid base, but he needs to expand into the black community and the white working class,” James Zogby, veteran pollster and president of the Arab American Institute, told TNA.

“The other side will find a candidate they can get behind. It will be in the hundreds of millions of dollars.”

He expects that Mamdani will win in the general election, even if he’s far outspent. The only thing that could stop him, believes Zogby, is if he falls in line with establishment demands and loses his authenticity.

Up against the media

In addition to the donors the mainstream media have shown a strong interest in discouraging support for Mamdani.

Predictably the far-right Fox News and the New York Post have warned of a mass exodus of business leaders from New York if Mamdani becomes mayor.

Similarly, The New York Times penned an editorial prior to the Democratic primary urging voters not to rank Mamdani on the ballot.

Earlier this month, the newspaper reported that Mamdani had identified as Black and Asian on his Columbia University application (where he was not admitted).

The information was obtained from a white supremacist (who was granted anonymity) in a theft from a hack of the university’s computer systems.

Sliwa, the Republican candidate, has shrugged off the story, saying he’s not concerned with how Mamdani identifies. Cuomo and Adams, however, have both suggested that Mamdani be investigated for his college application.

Right now, the betting markets show Mamdani having more than a 70 percent chance of winning in the general election. That could easily change as the Democratic establishment gets more organised in its efforts to stop him.

“I think it’s possible he could be stopped. They’ll throw as much as they can against the wall,” David Frank, a professor of rhetoric and political communication at the University of Oregon, told TNA.

Even with the large war chest being built up to stop Mamdani, he thinks it will be difficult to stop him with his army of 50,000 volunteers and effective messaging.

“He’s young and vital in a world of old politicians. He offers kind of an Obama moment for Muslims. The Democrats needed to seize on a theme, and he’s speaking to affordability,” said Frank.

“You can throw millions at a campaign, and it’s all for naught if you don’t have a good ground game.”

Brooke Anderson is The New Arab's correspondent in Washington DC, covering US and international politics, business, and culture.

Follow her on Twitter: @Brookethenews