Will the strategic province of Marib hold the key to Yemen's conflict?

Amid the renewed fighting between Yemen’s Houthi rebels and government forces and the Houthis’ capture of the whole of the country’s Red Sea coast, there is increasing speculation that the oil-rich province of Marib will be the next major theatre of conflict.

For many years, Marib has served as an impenetrable barrier against the expansion of the Houthi movement. It is one of the last strongholds of the internationally recognised government in northern Yemen and occupies a strategically important position 120 kilometres east of the capital Sana’a, which was captured by the Houthis in 2014.

Government forces in the area have so far adopted a defensive strategy, but amid the renewed fighting, it could become a base for them to seize the initiative and launch offensive operations.

This strategic shift has already been reflected on the ground in recent developments. Last week, government forces announced the launch of a wide-ranging military operation to take control of Houthi-held areas of the province.

These included an intensive assault by units of the Seventh Military Region, which broke through Houthi defences and recaptured strategic positions northwest of Marib city, alongside a successful flanking operation in the Mahzam Mas area.

In the south, government forces also took control of the Al-Akad Al-Ramli area and positions near Mount Al-Balaq amid fierce fighting that resulted in many deaths and the capture of Houthi prisoners as well as the seizure of military vehicles.

These operations coincided with the Yemeni armed forces repelling two major attacks launched by the Houthis against military positions in the south and west of the province.

The fighting was described as the most severe since 2021 and has marked the beginning of a new phase on the battlefield, in which the government is on the attack.

The government currently maintains full control over the province’s heartland and all its strategic points.

The tipping point of the Yemeni conflict

Marib is seen as the tipping point of the balance of power in Yemen – a key area on which the entire structure of the internationally recognised government rests.

It covers 17,478 square kilometres, with terrain ranging from rugged mountainous areas to vast desert plains.

Its population before the war was around 348,000, but around two million internally displaced people have fled there, living in hundreds of camps and shelters.

This places enormous pressure on its infrastructure and public services.

As the last major stronghold of the government in northern Yemen, it has become a key administrative centre where state institutions and military and security forces are concentrated.

Its survival is seen as key to the continuation of the Yemeni national project.

Militarily, Marib is a highly complex and vital geographical hub. It forms a strategic link between Al-Jawf, Sanaa, Al-Bayda, Shabwa and Hadramawt province, while also acting as a fortress that has repelled some of the Houthis’ fiercest attacks.

The fronts surrounding it have therefore become the first line of defence for Yemen’s east and south.

Financial and military lifeline

Economically, Marib is the country’s most important financial lifeline. It contains the major oil and gas fields in Safer, as well as a key power station, which supplies large areas of the country with electricity. It also generates sovereign revenues that finance a significant portion of state expenditure and essential services.

The military control map in Marib is characterised by considerable geographical complexity, with front lines intersecting and defensive and offensive positions overlapping between government forces and tribes on one side and the Houthi movement on the other.

While the government controls most of the province, including Marib city and the strategically important Al-Wadi district, the Houthis are present in peripheral mountain and desert areas, including areas bordering Al-Jawf governorate to the north and Al-Bayda and Shabwa governorates to the south and west.

This military overlap makes Marib an open front, with every possibility still on the table. Government forces are attempting to secure their security perimeter by taking control of  high ground in frontline districts, thereby cutting off potential routes for Houthi missile launches and ground attacks on the province’s population centres.

The potential military and strategic objectives of a government offensive appear clearly defined.

Military and political objectives

One major objective is to recapture the remaining districts under Houthi control, as well as secure and clear the western and northwestern areas bordering Sanaa and Al-Jawf.

These areas have served for years as major launching platforms for missile and drone attacks against residential neighbourhoods and critical infrastructure in Marib city.

Government forces are supported by a paramilitary organisation called the Popular Resistance, made up of residents of Houthi-controlled governorates who have been displaced to Marib.

Government-allied tribal fighters also constitute an active force, possessing heavy weapons and extensive knowledge of the terrain.

On the Houthi side, the movement relies on mobilising ideological and regional military formations belonging to what it calls the “Central Military Region.” These are stationed at strategic camps that the Houthis have seized and converted into advanced offensive platforms.

The most prominent include Mas Camp in northwestern Marib, as well as the Tamah and Khashm Al-Jafina camps.

The Houthis rely heavily on a war of attrition, using an arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones to attack government positions.

Government camps and fronts constitute the final defensive shields protecting the population centres, economy and energy facilities, while Houthi camps serve as major launch bases for threatening the front lines and attempting to penetrate the defensive perimeter around Marib city.

If the government does manage to make major advances in Marib, taking control of some or all of the Houthi positions in the province, this would represent a major turning point capable of redrawing the map of Yemen’s conflict and altering the balance of power.

Politically, it would likely push the Houthis toward serious engagement with peace negotiations while militarily opening routes towards the Yemeni capital Sanaa.

Most importantly, it would constitute clear confirmation of the internationally recognised government’s ability to determine the outcome of the conflict and restore confidence in the Yemeni national project.