Will Hamas disarm? A looming question mark over Gaza's ceasefire

Ramallah, occupied West Bank - US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he would give Hamas a chance to honour the Gaza truce deal with Israel, but warned that the group would be "eradicated" if it fails to do so.

This comes less than a week after statements Trump gave to reporters regarding the disarmament of Hamas, a point of contention in the US-brokered peace deal agreed on by both parties earlier this month.

“If they don’t disarm, we will disarm them, and it will happen quickly and perhaps violently,” Trump said.

Since the ceasefire began, Israel has killed at least 97 people and injured 230, according to Gaza’s Media Office. The Israeli army said airstrikes were launched in response to what it described as a “blatant violation” of the ceasefire by Hamas, a claim the group denied, saying Israel was fabricating “flimsy pretexts” to resume the war.

Observers, meanwhile, are debating the mechanism by which Hamas would be disarmed amid a security vacuum where the group has violently clashed with armed factions and clan militias.

Last week, Hamas released a video showing the public execution of eight blindfolded men accused of collaborating with Israel.  

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said Britain could take a leading role in helping to disarm Hamas in Gaza, based on its experience in decommissioning the Irish Republican Army (IRA) in Northern Ireland, which agreed to lay down its arms in the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, ending decades of sectarian violence.

However, critics say the IRA never governed Northern Ireland, unlike Hamas, which has been in control of Gaza since 2007 and has overseen all sectors of public life.

Mohammad Nazzal, a member of Hamas’ political bureau, told The New Arab in an exclusive interview that Hamas remains open to all proposals aimed at managing the Gaza Strip within the framework of genuine Palestinian dialogue.

“Any political solution should be based on true national consensus, away from dictates or decisions imposed by external forces,” said Nazzal, noting that Hamas has proposed a national partnership encompassing all Palestinian factions, which could be managed either under the Palestinian Authority (PA) or through an agreement involving Fatah and other factions.

Nazzal said Hamas was ready to allow the PA to manage Gaza if this would see a return to normalcy in the devastated territory. He also stressed the importance of holding comprehensive and fair elections in the future under Arab, Muslim, and international supervision, reflecting the movement’s desire to achieve a genuine national consensus.

Regarding the Hamas movement’s stance on disarmament, and the ceasefire agreement’s proposal to deploy an International Stabilisation Force (ISF) as a “long-term internal security solution in Gaza”, Nazzal emphasised that any such ideas must be seriously discussed with Palestinian factions.

“We reject imposing conditions that strip the resistance of its weapons without a comprehensive agreement,” said Nazzal. “There is a big difference between a stabilisation force aimed at establishing security and a force that comes in to disarm the resistance.”

Hamas does not seek to obstruct the agreement, he added, noting that the group was keen to fulfil its commitments and move quickly to the next phase.

Esmat Mansour, a political analyst with Palestinian think tank Vision for Political Development, explained that the demand to disarm Hamas did not start with Donald Trump’s administration, but is part of a broader strategy adopted by the Israeli government for years.

“Netanyahu wants to eliminate the Hamas threat and ensure that historical moments like 7 October never happen again,” Mansour told TNA.

He pointed out that disarmament is not merely a legal concept but carries profound implications when it comes to armed groups.

He invokes multiple global experiences, such as the recent case of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which destroyed their weapons in a public celebration that ended decades of violence, and the IRA, both of which reached political settlements leading to disarmament.

“However, in the Palestinian context,” Mansour said, “weapons are a legitimate Palestinian right, tied to the existence of occupation and the right to resist.”

Yet he points to the chasm between Hamas’ open pursuit of national unity and international and regional pressure to defang the group, noting that the rights and security of the Palestinian people must be guaranteed without succumbing to external pressures.

Ramallah-based political analyst Murad Harfoush interprets repeated calls to disarm Hamas and Palestinian resistance groups as a reflection of Israel’s strategy to “weaken the Palestinian people” at a time when Israel has been isolated internationally.

“The growing international demands to disarm the Palestinian resistance come amid Hamas’s declining ability to resist,” Harfoush told TNA. “Reports indicate that the movement has lost much of its heavy weaponry.”

While estimates vary, it is thought that Hamas had up to 30,000 fighters before Israel’s war began. Some reports suggest up to 9,000 Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters have been killed.

However, US intelligence officials said earlier this year that Hamas has since recruited 10,000 to 15,000 new fighters during the war.

“Demands for disarmament must be viewed within a comprehensive political framework that guarantees Palestinian rights,” added Harfoush, calling for these negotiations to take place within a broader context of political solutions.

Any agreement ignoring Palestinian rights will not be sustainable, added Harfoush, emphasising the necessity for all Palestinian factions to form a united front to negotiate and not succumb to external pressures.

Zaher Jabarin, head of Hamas in the West Bank, reaffirmed the movement’s commitment to implementing the ceasefire agreement to protect the Palestinian people, but rejected “any form of international guardianship”.

He warned against “the path of normalisation” at the expense of Palestinian rights.

“We must seize this historic moment created by the Al-Aqsa Flood to establish a Palestinian state,” Jabarin told TNA.

“Disarming the Palestinian resistance in Gaza under the current circumstances would lead to widespread chaos and a dangerous vacuum,” added Jabarin.

“Hamas’s weapons are linked to the occupation and the right to resist. Once an independent Palestinian state is established, these will be relegated to Palestine’s national armed forces.”

Demanding disarmament without a Palestinian government managing Gaza, added Jabarin, could lead to chaos, as past experiences have shown that concessions without guarantees are an invitation for Israeli aggression.

“The continued Israeli violations of the ceasefire agreement indicate the occupation’s lack of commitment to agreements, leading to mistrust.”

Political analyst Ashraf Akka believes Nazzal’s statements reflect a state of “political bankruptcy within Hamas,” pointing to internal contradictions amid an Arab and Palestinian consensus on ending divisions and restoring the PA in Gaza.

“The real test is Hamas’s ability to meet the requirements of rebuilding Gaza without external intervention,” Akka told TNA, stressing that internal contradictions in the movement are evident in conflicting statements addressed to Trump and regional mediators.

“Failure to achieve national unity could worsen the humanitarian conditions in Gaza,” he added, noting that the movement must clearly define its priorities and avoid moves that could dismantle the Palestinian national movement.

This article is published in collaboration with Egab