Why Marwan Barghouti's shadow hangs over Palestine's future

As the Gaza ceasefire tentatively holds, there is renewed attention on Marwan Barghouti, the most high-profile Palestinian prisoner held by Israel, and what his fate could mean for Palestine’s political future.

Although his name topped Hamas’s list of prominent detainees during the Gaza ceasefire negotiations, the jailed political leader was notably excluded from the recent prisoner exchange deal, which saw nearly 2,000 Palestinians freed earlier this month.

Last week, though, US President Donald Trump stated in an interview that he had discussed with White House officials whether to push for the release of the veteran resistance figurehead, fuelling further debate.

Trump said he does not think President Mahmoud Abbas is capable of governing Gaza after the war, adding that the Palestinians currently lack leadership.

“We really hope that Trump pressures Israel to release my father. For the freedom of the Palestinian people, the peace of future generations, and the stability of the region,” Arab Barghouti, Marwan’s son, said in an exclusive interview with The New Arab.

He emphasised that his father embodies the Palestinian struggle, having advocated for Palestinian rights for 50 years, and could unite Palestinians around a political vision recognised both inside and outside Palestine.

“His vision is clear: a functioning, democratic state, based on a two-state solution, where people can live in peace, freedom, and dignity,” Arab affirmed.

A unifying figure

Barghouti, by far the most popular politician among Palestinians, was arrested in 2002 and sentenced to five life sentences by Israel. The Fatah leader has always maintained that his trial was illegitimate.

He is widely viewed as a unifying figure able to bridge divisions across Palestinian society, between different political factions, as well as within Fatah, which is currently weakened by internal division and paralysis. Supporters see him as both a symbol of resistance and the Palestinian leader most capable of negotiating peace.  

The 2006 Palestinian Prisoners' Document, initiated by Barghouti, was a significant effort to bridge internal divisions and advance national unity. Although widely supported among Palestinians, it failed to obtain full political endorsement due to differing interpretations and reservations from various factions.

Polls indicate that he is a possible successor to Mahmoud Abbas, the ageing and deeply unpopular head of the PA, who has remained in power for nearly two decades without holding elections. Critics, who perceive Abbas as lacking democratic legitimacy, say that such an outcome would intensify calls for his removal.

Palestinians accuse the West Bank-based PA of entrenched corruption, nepotism, and bureaucratic mismanagement. Its governance is further debilitated by Israeli restrictions along with heavy dependence on external aid, leaving the PA financially strained and institutionally weak.

Moreover, since the signing of the Oslo Accords, the PA has maintained security coordination with Israel, a policy that is despised by the Palestinian public, who argue it perpetuates the status quo of occupation.

In an interview with TNA, Hani Al-Masri, director of Masarat, the Palestinian Centre for Policy Research and Strategic Studies, spoke of the worsening national fragmentation across Palestinian politics, institutions, and approaches to ending Israel’s occupation.

Discussing Abbas’s rule, the Palestinian political analyst pointed to his concentration of power and governance by decree with a small circle of aides. He described it as a “strategy of survival and avoidance,” marked by the sidelining of institutions within the PA, the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), and Palestinian factions.

In contrast, Al-Masri maintained that freeing Barghouti, contingent on Trump’s stance and Israeli approval, “could trigger a political earthquake”, boosting the prospects for Palestinian unity and much-needed political reform. “He’s pragmatic and flexible, yet firm and uncompromising, combining nationalism with realism, and embodying both resistance and political adaptability,” he commented.

Speaking to TNA, Mouin Rabbani, an analyst and commentator specialising in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, contended that part of Barghouti’s stature comes from the lack of credibility of Abbas, making him the default candidate.

“Unlike Abbas, he’s seen as someone who can bring Palestinians together and will put limits on those who are subservient to Israel and the US,” the Palestinian-Dutch researcher said, underlining the lack of public confidence in the current Palestinian leadership.

A red line for Israel

Palestinian factions have repeatedly sought, and failed, to secure Barghouti’s liberation, including during earlier ceasefire talks in the current war.

To Israel, Barghouti is a terrorist leader. Considering his high standing in Palestinian society and his potential to unite Palestinians toward statehood, Israel is unlikely to agree to setting him free.

His release could serve as a rallying point for Palestinian unity while directly challenging Israeli authority in the occupied territories and renewing Palestinian aspirations for statehood.

“The Israelis are very mindful that releasing Barghouti could energise the wider Palestinian movement, and potentially undermine Mahmoud Abbas, who remains compliant and closely aligned with Israel on security matters,” Amjad Iraqi, a senior Israel/Palestine analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG), told TNA.

The ICG specialist also noted that Israel refuses to free such an endorsed personality, partly because it wants to block the possibility of Hamas achieving any symbolic victory from the ceasefire deal in Gaza.

Arab Barghouti remarked that his father’s ongoing imprisonment serves as a means for Netanyahu’s coalition government to maintain the status quo: keeping Palestinians trapped under occupation, apartheid, and an unending cycle of violence.

“He represents a political threat to the far-right Israeli project,” Arab stated, stressing that from the beginning, Barghouti was fully aware of what he was committing to and the price of being a politician in Palestine.

Rabbani observed that the Israeli government is determined not to liberate Barghouti, viewing him as a man who could contribute to restoring the Palestinian national movement and deal more effectively with all stakeholders, locally and internationally. “For them, that’s a red line. For Israel, the priority is Palestinian fragmentation, weakness, and division,” the expert on Palestinian affairs said.

Incarcerated for more than 20 years, Barghouti has endured prolonged solitary confinement, including a three-year period following his initial detention. Since Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023, his conditions, like those of countless Palestinian detainees, have significantly deteriorated.

He has reportedly been assaulted multiple times by Israeli guards, while access to family and legal visits has been severely restricted. In August 2025, a brief video surfaced showing far-right Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir threatening him in his cell.

Ben Gvir, who supports the Israeli annexation of the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem, regards Barghouti’s freedom as a red line, according to Israel’s Channel 14.

However, several prominent Israeli figures have in the past urged for Barghouti to be released. In 2007, former Prime Minister Shimon Peres pledged to pardon him if elected, but later backtracked. More recently, former intelligence heads Ami Ayalon (Shin Bet) and Efraim Halevy (Mossad) have also supported freeing him.

Palestine's broken politics

Many Palestinians believe he is the one who could bridge Gaza and the West Bank. But could Barghouti truly unify them?

Analysts argue that the PA in its current form would require a deep structural overhaul - if not dismantling and rebuilding - if Palestinians are to achieve unity.

Ali Abunimah, director of Electronic Intifada, recently said in a panel that as long as Fatah and the PA remain “deeply committed” to security coordination with Israel, neither Barghouti nor anyone else can achieve genuine reconciliation.

A 2024 report by former PA negotiator Ghaith al-Omari and former senior Israeli intelligence analyst Neomi Neumann examined why reforming the PA is key to stabilising the West Bank, post-war governance in Gaza, and a revived political process.

Last Friday, Palestinian factions agreed to assign Gaza’s administration to a temporary technocratic committee and called for developing a unified political strategy and revitalising the PLO, which is dominated by Fatah, as the sole representative of the Palestinian people.

“If Palestinians make decisions based on their own best interests, the world will find it hard to ignore them,” Rabbani said, explaining that no such efforts can succeed while an exclusionary leader like Abbas remains in power.

He also said that, in the event of an election won by Barghouti, Palestinians would undoubtedly be better off than under Abbas, though, as with any politician, he wouldn’t fulfil all the hopes people place in him.

Similarly, Iraqi cautioned against the idea that Barghouti alone could shake up the Palestinian political system or revive the national liberation movement.

“Barghouti is influential and could be very instrumental, but a lot more needs to be built to help him succeed,” the ICG expert pointed out, suggesting that without meaningful change in Palestinian politics, he would simply be thrown into a broken system.

Additionally, if liberated, the high-profile prisoner, in a deteriorated state of health after such a long detention, would need time to recover and to navigate the realities of today’s Palestine.

“He would have to come to terms with a completely changed Palestine and reconnect with a population he hasn’t seen for 20 years,” Iraqi said.

Alessandra Bajec is a freelance journalist currently based in Tunis

Follow her on Twitter: @AlessandraBajec