Why the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is in danger of collapsing

When Israeli forces raided the southern Lebanese village of Blida last week and killed municipal worker Ibrahim Salameh, Lebanese President Michel Aoun condemned the attack and, in a rare move, ordered the army to confront any future Israeli incursions to defend Lebanon’s territory and citizens.

The Israeli military reportedly said the operation targeted alleged Hezbollah infrastructure. During the raid, soldiers attempted to capture a suspect and opened fire to “neutralise a threat”.

The raid marked an unusual step for the Israeli military. Since the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon took effect in November last year to end hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah linked to the war in Gaza, Israeli forces have seized five strategic hilltops in southern Lebanon and carried out near-daily airstrikes in the area, but no significant incursions had taken place until now.

Israel's escalation in Lebanon

In recent weeks, Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon have intensified, hitting civilian sites and reconstruction projects, and now, this escalation is fueling fears of a new conflict in Lebanon, which also risks disrupting the US goal to stabilise the region, an aim it sees as contingent on the fragile ceasefire in Gaza.

When Israel and Hamas agreed to the US President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan to end the war in Gaza in October, Israel’s focus shifted to Lebanon. Claiming that Hezbollah is rebuilding its capabilities, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with security chiefs on Thursday to address the situation in southern Lebanon.

After Israel killed four people in southern Lebanon on Saturday, saying they belonged to Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force, Defence Minister Israel Katz threatened to intensify attacks against Hezbollah, accusing Beirut of stalling efforts to dismantle the group.

These recent events signal growing pressure on Lebanon, which is being asked to implement Hezbollah’s disarmament. While the Lebanese government seeks to proceed at its own pace, Hezbollah insists it will not disarm as long as Israeli forces occupy parts of southern Lebanon. In August, the Lebanese army presented a disarmament plan, which the cabinet approved without setting a timeline.

The United States has since increased pressure on Beirut to act. US envoy Tom Barrack has been continuing to warn that if Beirut hesitates to disarm Hezbollah, Israel may act unilaterally with grave consequences.

“There is a risk that, for political reasons and because he believes the job isn’t finished, Netanyahu could reignite the war in Lebanon to keep weakening Tehran and annihilate what remains of Hezbollah,” Karim Emile Bitar, a professor of international relations at St. Joseph's University in Beirut, told The New Arab.

The Israeli government may also have internal reasons to escalate in Lebanon, as it appears to rely on a state of war to keep its coalition intact and could risk collapse without continued tension, former Egyptian diplomat Hesham Youssef told TNA.

“Some in the Israeli government see conflict in Gaza, Lebanon, and beyond as key to their survival, while internal disputes over the budget, annexation, and conscription threaten to collapse the coalition if fighting stops,” he said.

Aside from these internal matters, the delay in Hezbollah’s disarmament represents a potential casus belli for Israel to use against Lebanon. Beirut, on one hand, is under pressure from the US to expedite disarmament, but on the other, it fears that a more aggressive stance on Hezbollah’s weapons could plunge the country into civil conflict, given the internal political fragmentation.

This leaves diplomacy as Lebanon’s only viable option to prevent another Israeli military escalation.

After United States President Donald Trump brokered a ceasefire in Gaza in mid-October, Lebanon’s President Aoun called for negotiations with Israel.

Last week, US Deputy Special Envoy Morgan Ortagus visited Lebanon to discuss the ceasefire with Hezbollah and the “mechanism” that monitors it. She reportedly proposed expanding the committee to include civilian and diplomatic representation, allowing for indirect engagement with Israel.

Diplomatic efforts

Meanwhile, in recent weeks, a new player has stepped onto the stage to help ease tensions between Lebanon and Israel: Egypt. Cairo’s intelligence chief, Hassan Rashad, visited Beirut to offer assistance with southern Lebanon’s security, a week after he met Israeli leaders, including Netanyahu, for Gaza ceasefire talks.

Egypt is emerging as a more prominent player in regional political mediation, said David Butter, an associate fellow at Chatham House.

“One reason is that they have been effective on Gaza, getting the US to support their concerns, especially preventing Palestinian displacement, which they see as a diplomatic win following the Sharm el-Sheikh meeting,” he told TNA.

“Another is that Egypt, long seen as economically weak and aid-dependent, now senses it has more agency and regional influence, so it doesn't necessarily have to fall in line behind the Gulf states.”

Paul Salem, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, nonetheless, told TNA that “while Egypt has very experienced diplomats and can communicate with Israelis, giving good advice to Lebanese officials on negotiations, the US remains the key mediator with real leverage over Israel”.

The continuation of these diplomatic efforts to prevent an Israeli escalation in Lebanon benefits not only Lebanon but also the regional architecture that the US seeks to establish to achieve peace, an architecture that Israel’s military actions are threatening to disrupt, even after signing off on ceasefires.

Israeli violations of the ceasefire in Gaza mirror those that the Lebanese have endured for nearly a year.

Since Israel accused Hamas of an attack in Gaza that killed an Israeli soldier, it has violated the ceasefire several times, killing more than 220 people, according to Gaza’s Ministry of Health. In Lebanon, the UN has verified that Israeli forces have killed over 100 civilians since the ceasefire took effect in November 2024.

Trump told reporters that "nothing" would jeopardise the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, adding that Israel should "hit back" when its soldiers are targeted.

At the same time, however, the US has taken a more cautious approach to Israeli claims since the ceasefire in Gaza took effect. Washington has reportedly deployed surveillance drones to monitor the fragile agreement, with Israel’s consent, signalling a desire to track developments independently.

Bitar noted that while the US Gaza peace plan marked one of the first times in decades that Washington has used its leverage to restrain Israel, forcing Netanyahu to halt extremist ministers’ plans for ethnic cleansing in Gaza, recolonisation, and annexation of the West Bank, it is still not a genuine peace process, as key issues like occupation, the status of Jerusalem, the right of return of refugees, and Palestinian refugees were largely ignored.

“There’s a sense that most parties involved in the negotiations were trying to please Trump right before the Nobel Prize was announced, so they went along with his program. No one was willing to confront him with the hard truth: that the problem is far from solved,” he said.

“Because of Trump’s unpredictable behaviour, this plan might hold for a few weeks or months, but it definitely won’t resolve the Middle East conflict. The idea of burying political problems in a mega business deal with the Gulf countries seems completely unrealistic to me.”

Yet, the US is reportedly planning to replicate the Gaza peace model in Lebanon, with Beirut having received similar proposals from US envoys.

This would call for ending the state of war with Israel, disarming Hezbollah, and creating a demilitarised buffer zone,  dubbed “economic zone,” overseen by international forces, with a Lebanese technocrat committee handling local governance.

If Lebanon refuses these conditions, which could prompt further concessions, it could face a major escalation.

“The situation is fragile because Israel is trying to achieve through political pressure what it couldn’t through war,” former diplomat Youssef said.

“By insisting on full disarmament of Hezbollah and Hamas before any progress, even though this takes years, Israel is creating a recipe for a standstill, not a durable peace.”

Dario Sabaghi is a freelance journalist interested in human rights 

Follow him on X: @DarioSabaghi