Why Iraq is on edge as Syria's northeast status quo unravels

The Syrian transitional government's recent military offensive across territory long held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeast Syria has left authorities in Iraq on edge.

With large swathes of territory seized, including oilfields and prisons holding Islamic State (IS) fighters, Iraqi authorities are concerned that instability could spill over into their borders, as has happened in the past.

Iraq’s security forces have deployed more troops to the shared border as a precaution, with some officials issuing warnings that IS could regain operational space in Syria. Memories of past chaos in eastern Syria and the subsequent takeover of Mosul by IS in 2014 heavily influence how Baghdad now views the current threat.

Amid a rapidly changing security calculus, Iraqi authorities are now on high alert amid the potential rise of smaller, more elusive IS cells, further prison breaks, and deepening political divisions in Syria, which are all viewed as imminent and long-term challenges to manage.

A looming threat from across the border

Fears in Baghdad have continued to grow after the collapse in northeast Syria of the SDF’s ruling apparatus, which had been guarding dozens of facilities housing IS fighters and their relatives.

Kurdish officials have confirmed that they lost control of Shaddadi prison in Hasakah province, where thousands of IS detainees were being held. Videos posted online by the SDF showed armed groups breaking into the prison, while Syrian authorities say that SDF forces abandoned their post.

The events have led to growing fears and online recriminations in Iraq, with powerful Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr calling for stronger security, including at holy sites, and warning that Syrian extremists were planning prison breaks that could threaten Iraq. He also warned against potential alliances between jihadist groups and former Baathists.

Fethullah Husseini, who represents the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) in Iraqi Kurdistan, told The New Arab that Syrian army forces released nearly 1,500 IS detainees from Shaddadi prison after the SDF withdrew following heavy fighting. He said he had warned Iraqi officials that these releases are "part of a broader strategy to destabilise Iraq through ISIS attacks".

The high-risk transfer of IS detainees

In response, the United States has accelerated the transfer of IS detainees from Syria. On 21 January, US Central Command announced a mission to relocate detainees from northeast Syria to Iraq, stating that this step was necessary to prevent large-scale prison escapes.

The first transfer sent 150 IS fighters from a detention centre in Hasakah to Iraqi custody. As many as 7,000 detainees could eventually be moved to prisons in Iraq.

"We are closely coordinating with regional partners, including the Iraqi government, and we sincerely appreciate their role in ensuring the enduring defeat of ISIS," said Admiral Brad Cooper, CENTCOM’s commander.

"Facilitating the orderly and secure transfer of ISIS detainees is critical to preventing a breakout that would pose a direct threat to regional and international security."

Sabah al-Numan, spokesperson for the commander-in-chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces, told The New Arab that there are "no fears of infiltration" threatening Iraq’s stability and confirmed the deployment of additional troops to the Syrian border.

Al-Numan told Iraq’s News Agency (INA) that the transfer of IS detainees was unanimously approved to serve security and judicial interests. He stressed that all detainees, whether Iraqi or foreign, are wanted by the Iraqi judiciary for crimes committed against the Iraqi people.

He warned that leaving the detainees in Syria poses immediate and severe risks, with weak security and political pressure potentially leading to escapes, sleeper cells reactivating, and increased cross-border violence. Transfers must proceed with caution, Al-Numan added, starting with 150 detainees.

A US official said that the US military expects to complete the transfer of up to 7,000 prisoners from Syria to Iraq in the coming days.

Even with these reassurances, the issue of prisoner transfers is still a sensitive one and hotly debated. Iraqi security officials said that hundreds of detainees were moved over the weekend, and as many as 1,000 could arrive in one day and be sent to different prisons. Some earlier transfers included senior IS members.

Lawmakers and analysts warn that Iraq’s prison system is already under strain and could reach a breaking point. A sudden increase in detainees could lead to corruption, radicalisation, or mass escapes. Many observers have urgently warned that the transfer could be a "Trojan horse" that destabilises Iraq.

The PKK factor and risks of regional spillover

Growing tensions in northeast Syria have raised new concerns about the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its delicate peace talks with Turkey. Last year, the PKK said it would dissolve and disarm as part of talks with Ankara.

But the group has since warned that ongoing attacks on Kurdish areas in Syria could end the peace process and start a new conflict. The PKK has warned that if Kurdish-controlled Rojava - or the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria - falls, it could lead to long-lasting violence in the region.

Political analyst Ramyar Mahmoud told The New Arab that the PKK, now held back by Abdullah Ocalan’s orders, could become active again if the situation deteriorates, leading to new guerrilla attacks, border clashes, and heightened tensions in its strongholds in Iraqi Kurdistan.

"If Rojava collapses, the region will not move towards stability, but towards its greatest chaos," Mahmoud stated. He contended that renewed conflict would further destabilise the region and exacerbate Iraq’s security challenges.

Widening humanitarian crisis

Amid the fighting and now fragile ceasefire, a humanitarian crisis is growing in northeast Syria.

The truce deadline has been extended by up to 15 days, in part because of humanitarian conditions, but also because differences remain about the integration of the SDF into the Syrian state’s military and political system.

The SDF confirmed the extension, saying it was made possible by international mediators, with talks ongoing with Damascus.

Even with the truce, conditions are getting worse, and quickly. In Kobane, which is run by Kurdish authorities, a siege by Syrian government forces and their Turkish-backed allies has stopped daily life. Damascus has cut off food, fuel, medicine, electricity, water, and internet, raising the risk of a humanitarian disaster.

If the ceasefire fails, these harsh conditions could spill over into Iraq, possibly bringing a wave of refugees looking for safety and humanitarian aid. This would put more strain on Iraq’s already stretched infrastructure and could make cross-border instability worse, creating huge challenges for Iraq’s security and humanitarian efforts.

Aid organisations say that at least six children have died as shortages, cold weather, and a lack of medical supplies push hospitals to the brink of collapse. Warnings about a coming humanitarian disaster are becoming more urgent.

These simultaneous crises have weakened the SDF, hurt local governance, and opened security gaps that extremist groups could take advantage of. The Islamic State are still active, carrying out assassinations, ambushes, and spreading fear in rural Syria and Iraq, especially along the Euphrates Valley.

Political fault lines inside Baghdad

Security concerns in Syria are happening at the same time as major political changes in Baghdad. Over the weekend, the main Shia alliance, the Coordination Framework, endorsed former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki as its candidate, which could see him back in office more than ten years after his last term.

Maliki was prime minister when IS seized nearly a third of Iraq in 2014, a moment still vivid in the country’s public memory. Political analyst Munqith Dagher warned that returning Maliki to office is risky, writing on X that the Coordination Framework was "playing a dangerous game, the price of which will be Iraq’s future and its people".

US officials, meanwhile, have warned Iraqi leaders that including Iran-backed armed groups in the next government could lead to sanctions that would affect Iraq’s oil revenues. This warning shows that Washington wants to limit Tehran’s influence as its position in the region weakens.

These pressures compound an already fragile outlook for Iraq. Instability in northeast Syria, the continued presence of active jihadist groups, and changing alliances and political shifts inside Iraq are converging at a critical juncture, heightening uncertainty about the country’s near-term trajectory.