Hamas announced its acceptance over the weekend of US President Donald Trump's proposal to end the Gaza war, albeit with key issues still to be discussed, delivering its response to Egyptian and Qatari mediators.
The 20-point plan calls for a comprehensive ceasefire, the return of Israeli captives, dismantling Hamas's military capabilities, and establishing a transitional government in Gaza.
While fundamental sticking points remain, the group’s response to the plan raises critical questions about its strategic calculations and future role in Palestinian politics.
Multiple factors converged to push Hamas towards accepting, in principle, the plan, according to analysts and Palestinian faction officials interviewed by The New Arab.
"The reasons Hamas accepted at this time are multifaceted," said Abdel Fatah Dawla, an official spokesperson for Fatah.
"On the international and regional levels, we see escalating diplomatic movements pressuring Hamas to become an acceptable negotiating party. But we cannot ignore the direct threat from President Trump, who indicated that Hamas's rejection would allow Netanyahu to continue his war on Gaza with full American support."
Gaza's humanitarian catastrophe proved decisive. Two years of war have left the territory on the brink of collapse, with widespread destruction of infrastructure, health systems, and educational facilities.
The official death toll has exceeded 66,000, with independent estimates suggesting as many as 180,000 deaths when accounting for indirect casualties. Human rights groups, legal experts, and the UN have defined Israel’s war as a genocide.
"The field situation changed the balance of power," said Dr Murad Harfoush, a political analyst specialising in Israeli affairs. "The Israeli invasion destroyed most of Gaza's cities and led to the martyrdom of many Hamas leaders, both military and political. This pushed Hamas toward a pragmatic approach aimed at reducing pressure and stopping the war."
Regional dynamics have also shifted against Hamas. The withdrawal of key support fronts, particularly Hezbollah's reduced role, diminished Hamas's bargaining position. "Hamas witnessed changes in its positions as a result of these pressures, in addition to regional and international transformations that were often not in its favour," Harfoush explained.
Trump's threats of Hamas facing "all hell" if it didn’t accept the deal, combined with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's commitment to continuing the war until achieving his objectives, left Hamas with diminishing options.
Israel launched its "Gideon's Chariots 2" military plan to encircle Gaza City last month, with intensified bombing and destruction of residential towers, displacing over one million people southward under deteriorating humanitarian conditions.
The weapons question: Hamas's red line under pressure
Openness towards Trump’s truce proposal represents a fundamental reassessment of Hamas's position within Palestinian politics and the broader resistance framework.
"Hamas recognises that retaining weapons means losing influence," a senior Hamas official told The New Arab on condition of anonymity. "The movement may seek to shift the discussion about disarmament to a broader national level, including other Palestinian factions."
Dr Ali Al-Jarbawi, political analyst at Birzeit University, emphasised the limited options available. "The choices for ending the war were minimal, as Hamas was subjected to great pressure from several parties," he said. "Through this agreement, the issue of expelling Palestinians from Gaza has been ended."
Al-Jarbawi suggested Hamas must now consider "safe exit options, where those who wish to leave Gaza can do so, while others can remain, provided they leave their weapons". He added that the agreement "contains positive issues that open prospects for a future solution, despite the need for great efforts to achieve that".
The movement's response was carefully calibrated after consultations with resistance factions, Arab allies, and regional mediators. "Hamas's position was welcomed by most Palestinian national action factions, as it was considered a responsible response that returns national issues to the framework of internal dialogue," Harfoush noted.
Egypt has announced plans to convene a comprehensive national dialogue conference for Palestinian factions to formulate a shared vision for the coming period - a potential opportunity to renew commitment to national responsibility and political partnership.
Hamas's arsenal remains the most sensitive issue. In its response to Trump, the movement did not address weapons directly, insisting that weapons are a red line that cannot be touched until an independent Palestinian state is established.
"The talk about a huge arsenal for Hamas is exaggerated, as the movement possesses individual and simple weapons locally manufactured," Harfoush said. However, he acknowledged that "in the coming period, Hamas must focus on rearranging its internal affairs and presenting a new political vision commensurate with regional and international changes".
Dr Ashraf Akka, a political analyst, explained the practical constraints. "International and regional pressure will affect Hamas's presence in the post-war phase. Despite the pressure, there is still a possibility for Hamas to engage in the political process over time."
Al-Jarbawi was more direct. "Hamas realises that it cannot continue to possess weapons as a threat to Israel. Hamas has already begun thinking about the possibility of giving up offensive weapons, while retaining individual weapons. If there is consensus between the different parties, the collection of weapons can be organised and stored outside the sector."
The question extends beyond military hardware to political structures. "There is a strong trend within the movement toward making strategic changes in its policy and mechanisms for confronting the occupation," Harfoush said.
Ideas currently circulating include transforming the movement into a political party or changing its name to reflect a new phase for the group.
Gaza's divided response
On Gaza's devastated streets, reactions to Hamas's response to Trump’s plan remain mixed.
Khaled Al-Agha, 33, who lost 22 family members in the war, expressed bitter frustration. "We died of hunger, we died of humiliation, we died of oppression," he said, his voice hoarse. "Why did Hamas bring us into a war it couldn't handle? Who's left of them?"
His words capture the trauma of Gaza's residents, who have endured displacement, starvation, and the systematic destruction of their territory. Yet opinions vary between those seeing the potential ceasefire deal as positive - potentially improving economic and political conditions - and those viewing it as abandoning historical rights.
A senior Hamas official, speaking to The New Arab on condition of anonymity, outlined the movement's conditions.
"We express our deep appreciation for the efforts made by Arab, Islamic and international countries to achieve peace and stop the war,” they said. “We affirm our strong commitment to releasing Israeli prisoners according to the proposed exchange formula, with the necessity of providing international guarantees for the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza."
The official emphasised that "any progress in this context requires full respect for the rights and interests of the Palestinian people. We are determined to enhance our rights to return and self-determination, and we will continue to resist occupation as a strategic choice".
The Palestinian political landscape is at a critical juncture, and Hamas’s role in it is still uncertain. "Hamas must realise that there are issues that transcend its own interests, such as the future of Gaza and Palestinian national responsibility," Akka said.
The deep division that has grown between Palestinian factions over more than twenty years presents significant obstacles. "There is a lack of trust between the basic parties, which makes it difficult to reach consensus," Al-Jarbawi said.
However, he noted that "Hamas has approached the position required by other factions, including the Palestinian Authority and the Palestine Liberation Organisation".
Dawla stressed that Hamas’s response to the Trump plan opens possibilities. "This provides an opportunity for Hamas to integrate into the comprehensive Palestinian project, provided that this is done within the framework of national legitimacy and ensures Gaza's return to the national framework instead of perpetuating separation."
The success of Trump's plan depends on whether it can transform statements into tangible commitments - with international oversight ensuring compliance from all parties.
For Palestinians in Gaza, the immediate concern remains survival: ending the bombardment, securing food and medical supplies, and beginning the massive task of reconstruction in a territory where 60-70% of infrastructure lies destroyed.
Whether Hamas's positive overtures represent genuine transformation or tactical manoeuvring will only become clear as implementation of the plan progresses.
For now, Gaza's residents oscillate between cautious hope and deep scepticism, aware that promises have been broken before.
This article was published in collaboration with Egab