Is Syria a safe country? Why Europe's first deportation could set a dangerous precedent

Earlier this month, Austria became the first European country to deport a Syrian national since the fall of Bashar Al-Assad in December 2024.

Both the judges and the European Court of Human Rights ruled that a 32-year-old man living in Salzburg would have to return to his homeland.

The move was celebrated as a ‘victory’ by the ruling Austrian People's Party (ÖVP), who shortly after the fall of the regime vowed to “orderly repatriate and deport” the 100,000 Syrians living in the European country.

On 2 July, Interior Minister Gerhard Karner gave a press conference outside the airport in Vienna, where the Syrian man had just been boarded on a commercial flight to Istanbul.

“I believe it is an extremely important signal that Austria is pursuing a tough, strict, forceful but fair asylum policy,” said Karner.

Ruxandra Staicu, a lawyer for Deserteurs- und Flüchtlingsberatung, a non-profit organisation that took the man’s defence, told The New Arab she had "never seen a government official take so much pride in a deportation”.

Much of the official narrative that day revolved around the Syrian man’s criminal record, which prompted the authorities to revoke his asylum status back in 2019.

Two weeks after the Austrian authorities claimed that they had successfully handed the man over to their Syrian counterparts, the 32-year-old has not yet shown signs of life, and the government in Damascus has not provided any information about its citizen’s whereabouts.

Staicu had warned against the ‘premature’ decision to send refugees and asylum seekers back to Syria, given the remaining risks in the country after the Islamist coalition Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) toppled Assad and its leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, established a transitional government in late March.

“The [Austrian] Ministry of the Interior offered no evidence whatsoever that the person they were deporting was coming home to a secure environment,” she told TNA.

“If anything, the contrary,” said Sebastian Sperner, a legal analyst at Asylkoordination, a prominent Austrian NGO dedicated to supporting refugees, asylum seekers, and migrants.

In May, the Austrian Federal Office for Immigration and Asylum issued a country guidance stressing that Syria is in many respects still not safe and that there is too little reporting to make a clear assessment on various topics.

“By then, the procedure for deporting [the 32-year-old man] had already been started,” says Sperner, who has closely monitored the case.

A precedent for Europe

Austria’s decision to deport a convicted criminal was a first in Europe since the war started in Syria in 2011, and it could set a precedent as some neighbouring countries have already announced their intent to follow Vienna’s lead.

Shortly after taking office in May, Germany’s Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt announced his department would begin taking action against Syrian nationals who offend against German law.

At a time when there are no bilateral agreements between Syria and any European country, involuntary deportations pose “huge practical concerns, especially when flight connections still require a layover in a third country,” says Christoph Tometten, attorney at Kanzlei Möckernkiez and member of the German Migration Law Network.

Little is known about how Austria managed to get the Salzburg-based Syrian man on a plane back to his birth country.

“As long as there is no formal agreement, the authorities probably reached a case-specific consensus with Syria and Turkey for that person’s handover via Istanbul,” the defence told The New Arab.

Staicu and her colleagues at Deserteurs- und Flüchtlingsberatung elevated the Austrian government’s decision to the Strasbourg-based European Court of Human Rights, which hears cases alleging violations of the European Convention on Human Rights.

“It was assigned to Section 4 of the court, comprised of seven judges. They unanimously discontinued the interim measures, alleging there was no risk of infringement of Articles 2 and 3 of the Convention, on the right to life and the prohibition of torture, respectively,” she explains.

“A person’s record should by no means influence the court’s decision, which interprets the European Convention on Human Rights, not criminal law,” says Sperner, from Asylkoordination.

The legal analyst notes that only two weeks before the ruling, a group of European heads of state that included Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, and Austrian Federal Chancellor Christian Stocker issued a public letter requesting that the European Court of Human Rights let member states “have more room nationally to decide on when to expel criminal foreign nationals”.

Asylum applications on hold

While Austria and Germany seek a migration agreement with the new government in Damascus, these and other European countries have significantly reduced the issuance of asylum and refugee status to Syrians, convicted or not.

“After the fall of Assad, German authorities stopped processing applications they had received during the two or three years before,” said Kanzlei Möckernkiez’s Christoph Tometten.

“The Federal Office for Migration and Refugees resumed assessing applications over a month ago, but their strategy remains to take negative decisions. In many cases, appealing will only have a suspensive effect and delay the deportation”, he explained.

Austria has gone further by initiating procedures to revoke the status of around 2,900 refugees and halting family reunification.

Rights groups agree that interrupting or systematically rejecting refugee applications may put at risk many Syrians who would be exposed to sectarian attacks, religious persecution, and gender discrimination in their home country.

The United Kingdom, which granted refugee status to 1,853 Syrians in the first three months of 2024 but only two in the equivalent period of 2025, has announced measures to address this issue.

This week, the Home Office published new country policy notes on Syria to support decision-making in applications from religious minorities, people from Kurdish areas, Alawites, and actual or perceived Assadists.

A change of legislation?

For convicted criminals, the course that Austria has set this month could set a precedent in other countries. Signatories of the Geneva Conventions can apply exclusion clauses to deny refugee status to individuals who have committed serious crimes or acts.

Instead of forcing a person to leave, countries may also opt for different incentives and deterrence strategies.

“Governments have various ways to motivate voluntary returns, like providing money to those who fly back to Syria or, on the contrary, threatening to extend their prison sentence or depriving them of public aid if they stay,” said Tometten.

For recognised asylees and refugees, there are no major risks yet. Tometten claims that withdrawal procedures are likely to be initiated soon but that such procedures require a case-by-case assessment, subject to judicial review.

“Convicted criminals will likely be deported, there will be some risk for healthy, young men, and women, queer people, minorities and persons with major health conditions will most probably be fine,” he predicts.

That is legally. Politically, “any decision is susceptible of directly or indirectly affecting public opinion, policies, and future cases”, says Sperner, hailing from a country where, like in other parts of Europe, migration policy is a top priority for public opinion and within the entire policy agenda.

The days after the 32-year-old Syrian national was deported, “many Austrians disregarded the fact that this man is now probably under a system that does not comply with human rights. I was a bit surprised”, he adds.

Ruxandra Staicu, the Syrian man’s lawyer, admits that the non-profit organisation she works for has been subject to a hatred campaign since their name went public in Austria.

But she remains committed: “We will not give up on the defence of Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights. This Syrian man’s current situation is proof of what we have been claiming all along: Syria is not a safe place to return to”.

Miguel Flores Hormigo is a journalist straddling Beirut and Damascus. He covers Lebanon and Syria for several Spanish and foreign outlets, mainly El Confidencial and Cadena Ser. He holds a master's degree in Arab Studies from the Autonomous University of Madrid.

Follow him on X: @FloresHormigo