What is the future of Palestinian armed groups in exile?

On 13 September, Fatah, the political faction led by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, handed over its latest batch of weapons to the Lebanese army in Ain al-Hilweh, the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon.

The transfer was one of the most important to date in terms of quantity and type, with the head of the Palestinian security forces confirming that the five truckloads included heavy weapons. Arms were also surrendered to the Lebanese army in al-Badawi camp.

The first weapons transfers took place in Beirut’s Burj al-Barajneh camp in late August as a result of a May agreement between President Abbas and the Lebanese government, and in the wider context of disarmament efforts across the country, specifically of Hezbollah.

This comes after the disarmament of Palestinian factions in Syria earlier this year, alongside US demands to ban and deport them, raising the question: what is the future of Palestinian armed groups in exile?

The Lebanese front

“For many Palestinians, armed resistance is a way for liberation, return and self-determination,” Palestinian-Syrian writer Wessam Saabaneh, who lives in Lebanon, told The New Arab.

“It is [also] a key tool for self-defence, especially in refugee camps [in Lebanon] since these camps witnessed horrific massacres against defenceless civilians,” he added, citing the massacre of Sabra and Shatila, among others, during the Lebanese civil war.

The memory of that 1982 massacre, when right-wing Christian paramilitary groups backed by Israel killed up to 3,500 people, remains vivid for Palestinians in Lebanon.

In recent years, weapons have also been used during Palestinian infighting, with clashes repeatedly taking place between Fatah and Islamist groups.

“There are fears that disarmament could increase the security turmoil in camps” by upsetting the delicate balance of power between rival factions, Saabaneh added.

Weapons have also been used against their original target, Israel.

“Since 2006, [Palestinian] Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Hamas, with the support of Hezbollah and the blessings of the Assad regime, recruited and trained fighters from the refugee camps in Syria, the West Bank, Gaza, and Lebanon, who participated in the battles against Israel in Lebanon and elsewhere,” Palestinian-Syrian researcher Nidal Betare told TNA.

While the Syrian front has remained largely calm since the 1974 disengagement agreement between Syria and Israel, the Lebanese front was recently reactivated during the latest war between Israel and Hezbollah, with Palestinians from Lebanon and Syria fighting alongside the latter.

President Abbas is actively seeking to change this through disarmament, starting with Fatah, with discussions underway with other factions to do the same.

Through disarmament, “Abbas is seeking legitimacy from Israel and the US,” says Saabaneh, in a context where the Palestinian leadership is increasingly marginalised.

Palestinian factions in Syria

Unlike in Lebanon, weapons in Palestinian camps in Syria were tightly controlled under the regime of Bashar Al-Assad. Pro-regime factions, the largest of which was the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command (PFLP-GC), maintained a monopoly over arms.

When the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011, these groups maintained their allegiance to the Syrian regime and turned their weapons against fellow Palestinians and Syrians, participating in the siege of Yarmouk, the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Syria. Others, like Hamas, fought alongside the opposition, forming the Aknaf Bait al-Maqdis faction.

Since the nascent government led by interim president Ahmed Al-Sharaa was formed, after toppling the Assad regime last December, it has set about seizing the weapons of pro-regime Palestinian factions, closing their offices, and exiling their leadership, most prominent among them PFLP-GC leader Talal Naji.

In March, the US issued a list of conditions for partial sanctions relief, to which the Syrian government responded that it had formed a committee “to monitor the activities of Palestinian factions” and that armed factions outside of state control would not be tolerated.

Then, in April, two leaders of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) were arrested by the Syrian authorities, a few days before Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani visited the UN in New York.

A government focal point was reportedly appointed in May to oversee the Palestinian file and instructed all factions - including those that were not aligned with the Syrian regime during the war - to surrender their weapons and limit their activities to relief work.

The executive order US President Donald Trump signed in July to lift sanctions on Syria reiterated that Washington would monitor the Syrian government’s steps towards “deporting Palestinian terrorists and banning Palestinian terror groups,” as well as normalising ties with Israel. 

“The current phase can’t afford to have political activities [by Palestinian factions], as they will disrupt and embarrass the new [Syrian] authorities,” says Abu Marwan - not his real name - a former high-ranking member of PIJ who spoke to The New Arab on condition of anonymity.

Palestinian factions must adapt to this new reality and adhere to what the new Syrian authorities want, he added, or there could be political repercussions.

“Everyone has adhered to this [so far] and, today, in practice, most Palestinian political activities are charitable, social, humanitarian, and don’t go beyond that,” he said, adding that Palestinian factions cannot afford to fight on two fronts, against both Israel and Syria.

“The new Syrian regime will follow the US lead on anything,” Palestinian-Syrian researcher Nidal Betare told TNA, adding there are members of the government who “are not the biggest fans of the Palestinian cause, and many of whom have strong relationships with the Israelis”.

Fate of Palestinian factions

“The idea of resistance has never been present in Syria, so it won’t start now. The previous regime took the decision to ban all military or security activities in Syria [against Israel], so nothing will change,” Abu Marwan added.

In Lebanon, the disarmament of Fatah, the largest Palestinian faction in Lebanon, is underway, although Saabaneh says the end-of-year deadline is unlikely to be met.

“The time frame is not realistic since disarmament has to be related to the issue of Palestinian refugee rights [and] legal status.” Palestinian refugees are still denied citizenship, property rights, and the right to work in many high-paying professions.

There is widespread opposition across the board, including among Fatah’s ranks, in the absence of guarantees securing these rights, Saabaneh notes. This notably led to the removal of the Palestinian ambassador to Lebanon, Ashraf Dabbour, who was against the move.

Amid these developments, armed Palestinian resistance in Syria and Lebanon appears all but over.

“Palestinian arms outside Gaza and the West Bank have no strategic role in the Palestinian struggle,” Saabaneh says. “Resistance must come from within Palestine,” Abu Marwan echoed.

“Traditional armed resistance that the Palestinian movement established after the Nakba [has] collapsed. The current phase is transformational, and it's [too] early to predict its direction,” Betare said.

“Palestinian factions are on their way to fading away completely, and a new Palestinian political structure might be built…focused on peaceful resistance.”

Natacha Danon is a Damascus-based journalist with Syria Direct

Follow her on X: @natacha_danon and @natachadanon.bsky.social.