Waiting for zero hour: A countdown to war in Yemen?

Since early August, the Houthis, officially known as the Ansar Allah movement, have launched drone and ballistic missile attacks across several governorates under the control of Yemen's internationally recognised government, which is backed by Saudi Arabia.

The deadly attacks have heavily targeted the city of Mocha in the Taiz governorate and Marib in the eastern part of the country, and fighting has broken out in border areas between the Houthis and Yemen's government forces.

Dozens of people have been killed or injured as a result of this escalation, which first reignited in mid-July when Yemeni government forces bombed the runway of Houthi-controlled Sanaa airport after an Iranian aircraft landed, violating an agreement between Yemen's warring parties which had kept the civil war relatively dormant since 2022.

Since then, the Houthis have systematically targeted Saudi-linked ships in the Red Sea, while also expanding their attacks to Yemeni infrastructure.

Last week, the group fired missiles at a Yemeni-owned ship near Mocha, killing four crew members. Attacks on the Red Sea port city have left at least 16 dead and 22 injured in August alone, according to the port’s manager.

The Yemeni government has responded to these attacks with retaliatory strikes of its own, according to military spokesperson Colonel Majed Al-Nuzaili.

On Sunday, he announced that the Yemeni Armed Forces had carried out over 180 military operations targeting Houthi weapon depots and military equipment. According to military sources cited in the Yemeni media, over 200 Houthi fighters were killed in 48 hours, most in the southwestern Taiz province.

In response, the Houthis reportedly freed over 850 prisoners in Saada, Hajjah, and Sanaa in exchange for joining their ranks in combat.

In addition to domestic attacks, the group has also targeted Saudi Arabia’s Aramco refinery in Jazan, attacking the Red Sea facility with drones for the second time on Thursday.

Political analysts told The New Arab that the Houthis are launching offensives in government-held territories to pressure both the internationally recognised government and Saudi Arabia into granting key political concessions.

These include resuming public sector salary payments and fully lifting restrictions on Sanaa Airport.

However, for the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), the executive body of Yemen's internationally recognised government, any large-scale response is riddled with complex strategic considerations.

An inevitable return to war?

Professor Abdulsattar Al-Shamiri, a Yemeni political analyst and CEO of Johood Centre for Studies and Research, told The New Arab that the Houthis are applying intense pressure at a time in which the government is refraining from engaging in a full-scale confrontation “out of caution”.

"They must consider that a new open battle could prove far more destructive to infrastructure and civilians than the earlier rounds in 2015 and 2016,” he said.

During both those periods of fighting, an estimated 30,000 people were killed, with millions of Yemenis left in poverty.

The caution of government forces, however, could wane if the conflict between the US and Iran de-escalates.

Professor Islam Al Mansi, an Egyptian political analyst based in Cairo, termed the PLC's calculations as “protective”, with a desire to avoid dragging Yemen back to all-out civil war or reviving a devastating cycle of internal conflict.

“The Houthis are unconcerned with such calculations because they act on external orders and execute a foreign Iranian agenda, completely detached from these considerations,” Al Mansi told The New Arab.

Furthering that point, Professor Mansour Al Mantaser, a Yemeni political analyst and former professor at Sanaa University, argued that the PLC's current stalling of a decisive military confrontation is linked to the Houthis’ role as Iran's proxy, which requires operating in ways that avoid directly dragging Tehran in.

“Iran benefits from maintaining a Houthi stronghold, and various parties use this conflict to advance their own interests without any regard for the Yemeni people,” he told The New Arab.

Asked whether a return to full-blown war is inevitable for Yemen, Al Shamiri said that “ultimately, the legitimate government will find itself forced into a comprehensive confrontation, particularly along the fronts of Hodeidah, Mocha, and Al-Barh”.

The Yemeni government has recognised that a military solution is “its only option,” Al Mansi said. Any preparations for “zero hour”, however, remain “tied to specific developments and strategic calculations”.

This caution from the PLC is connected to the government's relative lack of autonomy in its position within the broader Saudi-led coalition, describing their status quo as de facto “paralysis”.

“Even when opportunities arise, and regional or international actors need the Yemeni government to take the initiative, it unfortunately fails to seize these moments under the pretext of 'fully preparing for the battle',” Al Mantaser told The New Arab.

“True readiness, however, is impossible unless the government takes the initiative to end the Houthi coup once and for all.”

Ready to shoot

Speaking to The New Arab, fighters and military personnel on the frontlines seem to share the view that an inevitable confrontation is simmering.

A brigadier general leading government-aligned troops on the West Coast front, which encompasses parts of the Taiz and Hodeidah governorates, said that troops in the field are holding their positions while awaiting directives from their leadership on a possible offensive against the Houthis.

“The Houthis have been trying to advance on various fronts, but we have repelled all of their attempts, killing and capturing dozens of them,” he told The New Arab, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“We do not currently have orders to advance into Houthi-controlled territory, but that does not mean we won't: we will do so at the right time.”

He emphasised that government-aligned forces will dictate the timing of the "liberation," claiming that the Houthis have failed to make gains on any front. At present, they are instructed only to return fire, and in many instances, they refrain from responding altogether.

“The battle against the Houthis must be well-prepared, not an impulsive decision. The leadership is currently discussing options, and I am confident they will make the right choice,” the brigadier general said.

Last week, Sheikh Hamoud Al-Mikhlafi, head of the Popular Resistance in Taiz, posted statements on Facebook accounts linked to the movement stating that their forces were ready to advance into Houthi-held areas but were awaiting orders from the PLC.

The Popular Resistance is a collection of pro-government militias formed in 2015 in response to the Houthi takeover of Sanaa.

“Ultimately, a decisive war is inevitable, and I believe it has already begun,” Professor al Mantaser told The New Arab.  

“Even if the broader Iran file is not fully resolved, this battle will continue to the end, and any postponement will not last for long."

Carolina Pedrazzi is an investigative conflict reporter specialising in the MENA region with extensive fieldwork experience. She holds a Master's degree from Columbia Journalism School and is a graduate of Sciences Po Paris and the American University of Beirut

Follow her on Instagram: @carolinapedrazzi

Edited by Charlie Hoyle