Turkey’s role in Libya has undergone a remarkable transformation over the last 14 years. Back in 2011, Ankara, a NATO member, initially rejected a military intervention, offering mediation instead between the then-Gaddafi government and rebels.
Two months later, it joined the military campaign in support of the rebels, eventually toppling the Gaddafi government. By September 2011, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, then prime minister, landed in Tripoli to tell Libyans that Turkey stands with them as brothers.
By 2021, he said that “Turkey’s success in Libya, both diplomatically and militarily, has led to a reshuffling of the cards - not only in the Mediterranean, but across the world”. His assessment proved prescient.
Today, Ankara is no longer the hesitant regional power it once was, but a de facto regional superpower, outfoxing nearly all others, including major international actors who, back in 2011, poured political capital and military resources into Libya in an attempt to remould the country to their liking.
Turkey today not only dominates the political scene in the fractured country, but also wields decisive influence over its future, despite the United Nations mission’s roadmap presented to the UN Security Council last August.
Its role as guarantor of a recent peace deal between the Radaa militia and the Government of National Unity (GNU), averting clashes in Tripoli, underscores this reality. As Libyan expert Hafed Al-Ghwell, a senior fellow at Johns Hopkins University, told The New Arab, “nothing happens today in Libya without Turkiye”.
When everyone else looked away in late 2019, Ankara took the bold step of intervening militarily to prop up the embattled Government of National Accord (GNA), a move that has since evolved into a firm, long-term strategic foothold in Libya.
Today, Turkey controls military bases, enforces binding security agreements, wields a controversial maritime memorandum of understanding, and secures lucrative economic contracts - cementing its influence across western Libya.
With Western powers fractured and regional rivals hesitant, Ankara has become Tripoli’s indispensable partner. As Libya remains politically deadlocked and a new UN roadmap attempts to restart the transition, one question looms large: is Turkey’s dominance in the country about to become unchallenged?
From tactical intervention to strategic foothold
In late 2019, as Haftar's forces closed in on Tripoli, Turkey moved decisively; Ankara deployed drones, military advisers, and Syrian mercenaries to rescue the embattled GNA and save the capital.
This intervention proved pivotal, and by mid-2020, Haftar's offensive had unravelled, his backers - including Egypt, the UAE, and Russia - were compelled to reassess their positions, and the GNA managed to retain control of Tripoli.
What began as a tactical response to a pressing threat swiftly evolved into a sustained and strategic military engagement. In the years since, Turkey has transformed its battlefield gains into enduring strategic assets.
It secured control of Al-Watiya Air Base, located southwest of Tripoli near the Tunisian border, a strategic facility overseeing much of western Libya's airspace extending to the Mediterranean coastline.
Additionally, it established a presence at Misrata's naval base and embedded military trainers and advisers within Libyan forces loyal to the UN-recognised Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli, led by Abdelhamid Dbeibeh.
A series of agreements with Tripoli formalised its role, encompassing security cooperation and military training. Most notably, the November 2019 maritime boundary agreement granted Ankara a stake in the eastern Mediterranean's energy disputes, linking Libya's future directly to Turkey's broader regional ambitions.
What began as a defensive intervention had, by 2021, evolved into the foundation of a strategic foothold. Once considered an outsider in the eastern Mediterranean - hampered by Greek islands and a lack of a recognised EEZ -Turkey suddenly became a maritime neighbour with legitimate rights certified by Libya.
That this recognition came from a country in a fragile and politically fragmented state underscores its significance: even amid chaos, Libya’s long coastline conferred important legal and geopolitical weight, elevating Turkey’s status and granting it unprecedented influence in regional maritime affairs.
Turkey and Haftar, from confrontation to engagement
In January 2020, President Erdogan dismissed General Khalifa Haftar as a “mercenary [and] paid soldier,” warning that Turkey would “teach him a lesson” if he pressed ahead with his assault on Tripoli.
At the time, he placed Haftar firmly within an “axis of evil” that included Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. By 2025, Haftar’s backers are no longer “evil”, and he himself has become a potential friend.
Shifting pragmatically, Ankara reached out to the General himself, even inviting him to visit after a series of visits by his sons - a clear signal of thawing relations and a calculated pivot toward eastern Libya.
Simultaneously, Turkey embraced the Tripoli’s GNU under Dbeibeh, who made his first foreign visit to Ankara in April 2021. Ankara’s military presence, combined with diplomatic and strategic ties, positioned it as a political guarantor for Tripoli, deterring further Haftar advances while securing a central voice in Libya’s political processes.
By maintaining engagement with both Tripoli and the Haftar camp, Turkey demonstrates its adeptness at navigating Libya’s fragmented political landscape and shaping the country’s future trajectory.
Expanding economic footprint
Turkey has expanded its economic footprint across Libya. Turkish companies hold contracts in both western and eastern regions, including reconstruction projects in 2023 storm-devastated Derna.
Collaborations with entities such as the Libya Development and Reconstruction Fund, led by Belgassim Haftar, further consolidate Ankara’s influence in reconstruction, infrastructure, and energy sectors.
Reports indicate that Turkish exports to Libya exceed $2 billion annually, reviving projects frozen since 2011 and cementing Turkey’s long-time leverage. As of August 2025, Turkey had emerged as the leading source of goods and services imported into Libya, surpassing competitors including China and Egypt.
According to the Central Bank of Libya, Libyan banks utilised $15.3 billion in foreign currency between January and July 2025, of which over 22 per cent went to Turkey.
Strategic balancing
Turkey’s approach in Libya reflects its ability to balance seemingly contradictory foreign-policy objectives. While Ankara has supported Ukraine militarily, it has maintained working relations with Russia, including in Libya, demonstrating a pragmatic stance that prioritises national strategic interests over ideological alignment.
Similarly, Turkey’s procurement of the Russian S-400 air-defence system - despite US and NATO objections - underscores Ankara’s willingness to chart an independent course even within an alliance framework.
These examples highlight Turkey’s skill in navigating complex geopolitical landscapes: advancing its regional ambitions, maintaining strategic partnerships, and leveraging economic and military tools, all while managing the sensitivities of larger powers.
In Libya, this balancing act has allowed Turkey to consolidate influence without entirely alienating either Russia or NATO allies.
Even Egypt has been outfoxed by Turkey’s manoeuvring in Libya. The Tripoli–Ankara maritime agreement and Ankara’s deft engagement with the pro-Haftar parliament have effectively sidelined Cairo, limiting its leverage in eastern Mediterranean disputes and Libyan political processes.
Turkey’s ability to secure recognition and strategic footholds while keeping Egypt off balance highlights the depth of its diplomatic skill and the effectiveness of its multifaceted regional approach.
Through this combination of military, political, and economic engagement, Turkey has positioned itself as an indispensable partner across Libya and will not be “forced out”, Al-Ghwell emphasised.
By balancing influence in both Tripoli and the east, Ankara has ensured not only a decisive role in shaping Libya’s political trajectory but also a durable stake in its long-term economic and strategic future.
Mustafa Fetouri is an award-winning Libyan journalist, columnist, author, and translator, with contributions to major outlets like Middle East Monitor, Al-Monitor, and Washington Report, and a focus on North Africa and the Sahel region
Follow him on X: @MFetouri