Trump's war cascades into a multifront battle for regional order

Iran has widened its war in the Gulf. Israel, meanwhile, continues its war in the Arab Levant and is also preparing for a greater role in the Gulf.

Tel Aviv is openly declaring that it will continue its war against Iran and its regional axis, while Benjamin Netanyahu continues to speak of bringing down the Iranian regime. Tehran, weakened and in retreat across parts of the Levant, is seeking to expand its influence in the Gulf, not only through the Strait of Hormuz but also by opening a new front around the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

It has already laid the groundwork through a series of military operations against Gulf states and appears to be preparing for further action if the US blockade continues and military strikes persist.

The world is holding its breath. Donald Trump is threatening to strike Pickaxe Mountain, the heavily fortified nuclear facility near Natanz. Netanyahu, meanwhile, continues to say that Israel is ready to carry out further operations against Iran as Tehran seeks to restore its nuclear programme.

Israel is working to provoke Iran further and draw it into a renewed war. Netanyahu appears to see escalation as the main route through which to fight his electoral battle, and therefore prefers to continue military operations in pursuit of achievements that could improve his political standing.

What Netanyahu wants is a renewed war stretching from Lebanon to Syria, alongside renewed confrontation between the United States and Iran. He is also seeking a greater Israeli role in the Gulf, particularly in the Yemen war.

Israeli reports point to concern in Tel Aviv that the Houthis could consolidate control over Bab al-Mandab and gain greater influence over shipping in the Red Sea. The Israeli military has also conducted exercises in Eilat simulating naval warfare.

Redrawing West Asia for good?

What the United States is doing amounts to redrawing the map of the Middle East, and of a significant part of the wider region. Israel, for its part, repeatedly says that it has already changed the Middle East and intends to continue doing so.

The shared US-Israeli objective is to draw the states of the region further into Israel’s orbit and into the Abraham Accords. Israel will seek to impose this through military pressure, whether in Lebanon, Syria or later on other states, including Gulf countries.

Saudi Arabia is particularly important in this regard, as Trump continues to push for it to join the Abraham Accords.

Lebanon, meanwhile, remains under sustained military and political pressure aimed at pushing it in the same direction.

This cannot be separated from remarks by the Israeli president about his ambition to meet the Lebanese president, visit Beirut and announce a peace agreement. Nor is it different from US statements that openly point towards an eventual peace agreement between Lebanon and Israel.

The framework agreement between Lebanon and Israel is increasingly being presented as the basis for governing that relationship, with Hezbollah’s disarmament across Lebanese territory treated as a central condition.

In this way, Washington is effectively giving Israel political cover to remain militarily active until Hezbollah is disarmed.

The US position coincided with Israel’s destruction of tunnels at Ali al-Taher, north of the Litani River, a clear indication that Israeli military operations may continue in other areas.

Netanyahu himself said that the Israeli army had destroyed tunnels around Beaufort Castle and Ali al-Taher, adding that there would be further operations.

Against this backdrop, the region appears to be approaching another moment of explosion.

It may be delayed, or it may erupt at any moment, particularly as Iran studies the options available to it and considers how to respond to the tightening US blockade, the strikes it is facing and the escalation in Lebanon.

In Yemen, Iran has moved towards an escalation through its allies, with the aim of strengthening control over Bab al-Mandab.

This has come alongside advances by the Yemeni government in other provinces as it seeks to tighten pressure around Sanaa and weaken the Houthis.

Iran’s moves in Yemen therefore constitute one of the most important tests of the Mecca security arrangement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey.

Dealing with the situation in Yemen will require renewed activation of the international coalition established by Saudi Arabia to protect navigation through Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea.

Israel is likely to watch from the sidelines initially and wait for an opportunity to impose itself as a central player there, whether through security and intelligence cooperation or through direct military power.

But that would come at a high political price: first through a security agreement with Saudi Arabia, and then through a political agreement, peace deal or normalisation.

Israel as the region's policeman

What Israel wants is clear: to become the “policeman of the region” and the effective successor to US predominance from the Gulf to the Arab Levant.

Israel is presenting itself as a state capable of guaranteeing the security of regional governments and protecting them, on the basis that such protection requires alliance with Israel and acceptance of its conditions.

Israel also wants to demonstrate that the Mecca arrangement, or any other security or defence agreement, cannot provide Saudi Arabia or other regional states with an alternative source of military strength.

Turkey and Pakistan did not intervene militarily in support of Saudi Arabia in the past, have not done so now and may not do so in the future.

Israel, which is increasingly fighting over strategic routes, corridors and crossings, is also unlikely to accept a Turkish military presence around Bab al-Mandab or Turkish intervention in a campaign against the Houthis.

Israel is seeking to widen the war across the region.

It wants to show that it alone is capable of confronting Iran and its allies, and through that confrontation impose itself as an essential party in any regional equation involving the Arab Levant, the Gulf or the Eastern Mediterranean.

This is what Israel has been working towards for years.

It has built partnerships and strategic alignments around the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly with Cyprus and Greece, while also seeking to connect these arrangements to the Gulf.

The same logic is visible in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, or IMEC, which links India to Europe through the Gulf and the Eastern Mediterranean.

Israel wants Saudi Arabia and Egypt to become part of this wider strategic architecture, while gradually drawing Lebanon and Syria into it as well.