Is a thaw in long-frozen Egypt-Iran ties on the horizon?

Arriving in Cairo on 2 June, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was keen to add a personal dimension to his visit to the Egyptian capital.

First praying at the Fatimid-era Al-Hussein Mosque in Cairo, located just metres from Al-Azhar Mosque, the highest seat of Sunni Islamic learning, he later treated three former Egyptian foreign ministers to dinner at a restaurant named after Naguib Mahfouz, winner of the Nobel Prize for literature in 1988.

The restaurant is situated in the middle of Cairo's bazaar, where hundreds of traders sell tokens of Egypt’s ancient civilisation.

The symbolism behind the Iranian foreign minister's tour in the Egyptian capital was clear: deep respect for everything that Egypt represents as a centre of Islam, one of the world's oldest civilisations, and an Arab cultural powerhouse.

Hours earlier, Araghchi said at a press briefing with his Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdelatty that the “opportunity is available now more than ever” to improve relations.

"A final hurdle will be removed in the coming weeks,” he added, without specifying, adding that ambassadors from both countries have not yet been reinstated.

"We're not in a hurry," he said. "When our brothers in Egypt are ready, we will be ready."

Drawn into Iran's orbit?

Observers of the Iranian foreign minister’s trip view it as a reflection of major shifts in regional alliances.

Egypt severed its relations with Iran soon after the eruption of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, given Cairo's close ties with Iran's last shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, at the time.

Relations between the two states deteriorated even further after Egypt signed a peace treaty with Israel later the same year, and after the 1981 assassination of Anwar Sadat, the Egyptian leader who inked the deal.

Iran, angry at Egypt for granting asylum to the shah after his overthrow and Sadat's decision to bury him in Cairo, applauded the Egyptian leader's assassination and named one of its streets after the assassin.

In the following years, the deterioration in relations between Cairo and Tehran was driven by the latter's hostility towards fellow Arab Gulf states and what was viewed in Cairo as Iran's negative regional policies.  

Two days before Araghchi arrived in Cairo, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan visited Damascus, an Iranian stronghold before the overthrow of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime in December last year.

While in the Syrian capital, the Saudi foreign minister prayed in the Umayyad Mosque, a symbol of co-existence in Syria.

By praying in the Al-Hussein Mosque, an important house of worship for Shia Muslims, the Iranian foreign minister may have wanted to send a message to Saudi Arabia, an arch regional ideological rival of Iran, that even though the Iranians lost Damascus, they can still make inroads into Egypt, a key regional ally of Riyadh.

Balancing regional ties

Nevertheless, a radical shift of regional alliances is unlikely, especially if it involves Egypt, a country that has an aptitude for fostering relations with different regional and international rivals at the same time.

Cairo nurtures good relations with China and Russia, is central to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, and is a member of BRICS, a bloc of emerging economies that want to challenge US global economic hegemony.

Part of the US’s regional security strategy, Egypt maintains close contacts with the White House, as Cairo, Doha, and Washington have worked to end Israel’s war in Gaza.

"This is why I say warming relations between Egypt and Iran don't mean that Egypt will break free from its original or traditional alliances," retired Egyptian diplomat Ambassador Rakha Ahmed, a member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, a think tank, told The New Arab.

"However, these improving relations put a lid on old tensions in relations between the two countries, which can positively affect regional stability and security," he added.

On this point, analysts like Ambassador Ahmed have a strong argument. At his press briefing with Araghchi on 2 June, Abdelatty described improving relations between Iran and Arab Gulf states as a "good sign".

Economic cooperation

Economic cooperation is perhaps the only thing Cairo and Tehran agree on as they take measures to expand this cooperation, with both having their own motivations.

Economically weakened by decades of sanctions, Iran is looking to break out of its isolation by doing business with a regional heavyweight like Egypt. 

Egypt, which has its own economic hardships, also wants to attract as many Iranian tourists as possible in the coming period.

In recent years, Egypt has courted different Shia groups, including the Dawoodi Bohras, who have contributed millions of dollars for the restoration of some of Egypt's mosques.

These renovation efforts were part of a plan by the Egyptian government to refurbish shrines known to be important for Shia tourists, known as the mosques of Ahl al-Bayt, or the houses of worship associated with the descendants of Islam's Prophet, Muhammad, Egyptian observers say.

"Egypt restored these mosques as part of its plans to attract Shia pilgrims and tourists to them from around the world," Gamal Abdelrahim, a professor of Islamic archaeology at Cairo University, told TNA.

"Improved relations with Iran will serve this plan because it can open the door for the attraction of Iranian tourists in the coming period," he added.

Iranian tourists started flocking to Egypt in their thousands in 2013 as relations warmed between Egypt and Iran.

When he visited Egypt in February 2013, then-Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was given a hero's welcome by then-Islamist President Mohamed Morsi.

Nevertheless, improvements in relations between the two countries proved fleeting after Morsi was toppled by the Egyptian army.

Difficult convergence

The mutual desire for enhancing economic cooperation may not be enough to drive a radical improvement of relations between the two countries, analysts in Cairo say.

Uncertainties over the future of relations between the two countries are rooted in Iran's failure to acknowledge Egyptian concerns, they add.

By inviting the Iranian foreign minister to Cairo, Egypt may have been attempting to end a standoff between Iran and the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over the agency's leaked report, which said Tehran had stepped up production of uranium enriched up to 60 percent.

Araghchi met with IAEA head Rafael Mariano Grossi, who was visiting Cairo for talks on Egypt's peaceful nuclear programme, with Grossi posting on X that he was “grateful for Egypt’s constructive role in supporting peaceful, diplomatic solutions to regional challenges”.

In return, Cairo likely wanted to hear positive overtures from Iran about a number of sticky issues, including Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, which have cost Egypt tens of millions of dollars in Suez Canal revenues every day.

Instead, the Iranian foreign minister said his country does not have leverage over the Yemeni group, adding that Tehran gives them support but that they make their own decisions.

"The armed forces in Yemen are independent," Iranian political analyst Mokhtar Haddad told TNA. "This means that they are not influenced by Iran."

He added that only vessels heading to or from Israel have been harmed in Houthi attacks.

However, given the financial losses Egypt has sustained, this argument seems to carry little weight for Cairo.

Egypt also likely wanted Araghchi to indicate changes in Iran's regional policies, including its involvement in the affairs of fellow Arab states, especially Lebanon, whose president, Joseph Aoun, visited Cairo in May.

Iran’s regional allies, including Hezbollah, have long stood at the centre of the Islamic Republic’s influence in the Middle East, but have been significantly weakened in recent months.

Nevertheless, continued support for some of these proxies will always be a contentious issue with Cairo, analysts say.

"These proxies are part of Iranian influence in the region," Ambassador Ahmed said. "Iranian support to these proxies will make it necessary for states like Egypt to exert additional efforts if they want to outrival the Iranian influence," he added.

Saleh Salem is an Egyptian journalist