At the time of writing, the demise of Rojava appears imminent, a project intended to provide an egalitarian space in Syria away from the Assad regime and the Islamic State (IS) group, but which became increasingly associated with Kurdish supremacy and authoritarianism.
In just a few weeks, government forces have gone from recapturing two Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) enclaves in Aleppo City to gaining huge swathes of territory in northeastern Syria, including a biocarbon bonanza, with barely a fight.
With Arab-majority and oil-rich Raqqa and Deir az-Zour now fully in the hands of the government, the SDF is confined to slivers of territory in mostly Kurdish areas, with a four-day ceasefire ticking down before the threat of military force resumes.
It is a rapid fall from grace for the SDF, which became the US-led CENTCOM’s main ally on the ground during the fight against IS, benefiting hugely from American military and material support that helped maintain the group’s control over northeast Syria.
Amid the shrill voices of Kurdish activists warning of a “genocide” by government forces and a “betrayal” by the West, Tom Barrack, the US Special Envoy to Syria, announced that the group’s role as CENTCOM's anti-IS partner in Syria had “largely expired”, now that Damascus had joined the Global Coalition Against Daesh.
In a speech on Wednesday, President Donald Trump appeared to make this divorce official when he reaffirmed his commitment to Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa as government forces encircled Hassakeh City.
“The president of Syria is working very, very hard - strong guy, tough guy, pretty rough resume, but you are not going to put a choir boy there and get the job done,” he said.
The US had offered the group a way out of the crisis with an integration deal agreed between SDF leader Mazloum Abdi and Sharaa in March 2025 that was reformulated this week in Damascus. Abdi’s insistence on consulting others in the SDF leadership on the deal appeared to spark anger among Syrian officials, already frustrated with months of delays in implementing the March accord.
The group’s leadership could be blamed for failing to understand that US-SDF relations had been essentially reset after Sharaa’s visit to Washington in November, when Damascus officially became the Pentagon's primary partner against IS in Syria.
“The writing has been on the wall for a few months now, the SDF either didn’t want to see it, overplayed their hand, or overestimated what they had heard from a few individuals within the (Washington) administration, who by showing support might have relayed the idea that the US could come to their defence more strongly, than was actual White House policy,” Dareen Khalifa, senior advisor at the International Crisis Group told The New Arab.
“I am not at all surprised by their defeat in predominantly Arab areas, at the end of the day, the SDF-Arab alliance there has primarily been that the people preferred them over the Assad regime. With all their flaws, their shortcomings, and their problems, the SDF were more lenient and humane with the population, so people preferred them over Assad.”
With Sharaa widely viewed among Syrians as liberating the country from Assad’s authoritarian rule, this loose coalition between the SDF party vanguard and Arab tribes has been weakened.
After the Syrian army’s successful offensive against the SDF in Aleppo province, this SDF-aligned tribal confederation began to break away with defections to the government, including on Wednesday night when the Shammar clan changed sides, and with it, the key border crossing linking Kurdish-controlled territories in Syria and Iraq.
“People want a central state and feel there has been a Kurdish supremacy in the way they have handled governance and security in the area,” said Khalifa.
“I don’t feel it is Kurdish supremacy per se, it's party supremacy - they have always prioritised party loyalty and membership, and it’s understandable, it’s the circle of trust, and it is something similar to what Damascus is doing now.”
The road to Raqqa is replete with signs of hubris from other failed ideological projects in northeast Syria, walls of abandoned buildings smothered over the years by fighters with the banners and slogans of the Assad regime, various Iranian militias, the Islamic State (IS) group, and now, the SDF. In time, the insignia will be wheat-pasted over with the colours of the new Syrian flag, the final victors of the 15-year-war.
Sand berms that served as artificial boundaries between SDF and government territory will likely be bulldozed, while a huge SDF security checkpoint on the outskirts of Raqqa - more reminiscent of a border crossing between two sovereign nations than a militia roadblock - will also likely be dismantled, reuniting another stretch of Syrian land.
More challenging for the government will be the issue of the SDF-controlled prisons and camps, which include not only the wives and children of IS fighters but also thousands of civilians rounded up during the US-led coalition’s military campaign and trapped in perpetual confinement.
A transfer of IS prisoners from Syria to Iraq has begun, while the Syrian government will finally be able to resolve the potentially explosive situation of militant family members and other civilians in the camps, such as Al-Hol, with a difficult task of assessment and reintegration.
The government and military’s extensive intelligence experience in dealing with jihadist groups has allowed it to deliver the names of IS suspects and foreign fighters to the US-led coalition. It is this that has given President Sharaa a green light to unify the whole country (by force, if need be) and made the SDF surplus to requirements, said Ayman Abdel Nour, a Syrian political consultant.
“Syria has fulfilled everything President Trump wanted to join the coalition against ISIS, and Washington is continuing to support the party that is most beneficial to its interests. So, the interests of the United States right now are to support one man who can unify and represent all the geography of Syria,” Abdel Nour told The New Arab.
“President Trump wants to meet with one man and not have (Druze sheikh) Hikmat Al-Hijri, or (Alawite sheikh) Ghazal Al-Ghazal, or Mazloum Abdi come the next day and say he does not represent all of Syria.”
Beyond security arrangements, the government’s control over the northeast will also allow it to exploit oil and gas reserves, with contracts agreed with US companies for onshore and offshore exploitation, but this will be a long-term effort in rebuilding battered facilities.
“After eight or nine years of SDF rule in northeast Syria, there has been no development in any infrastructure… this is something the US wants (to develop),” said Abdel Nour.
“But even the areas the SDF have withdrawn from, it is 95 percent Arab, there are no Kurds in Raqqa and Deir az-Zour, and Hassakeh would have collapsed in an hour if the Americans hadn’t called President Sharaa to tell him to stop (the campaign).”
The SDF are now confined to territories with a large Kurdish population, where the group has greater legitimacy among the local population, making a peaceful solution to the crisis more likely, one that could feature figures such as Abdi given important positions in the Syrian government or military.
Ultimately, both sides have in common a need to create security in the eastern regions and begin developing the oil infrastructure, something that will benefit all Syrians, regardless of ethnicity or religion, and bring hope of a better future, something vital to tackling the extremism problem.
“The government will deliver on whatever they agreed with the US, on security, on guarantees that there will be no attacks against Israel, and bring in the big US oil companies,” Abdel Nour said.
“This means the country will have an income from oil and gas, give civil servants bigger salaries, plus reduce the price of oil and its derivatives, such as diesel and petrol, and might even reduce the price of electricity so the people can be more relaxed (about high energy costs) and will enable industry to prosper.”
Paul McLoughlin is the Head of News at The New Arab
Follow him on Twitter: @PaullMcLoughlin