From stalemate to rupture: What lies ahead for Yemen's war?

As military escalation gathers pace and rival actors mobilise, the new year has arrived in Yemen amid heightened instability, signalling a troubling new phase in the conflict.

Although 2026 marked the end of a decade of war, the year ahead may instead usher in a new chapter defined by deepening foreign involvement and intensifying civil strife.

The current situation in Yemen, especially in the south, is deeply unstable, with allies of yesterday, along with their regional backers, turning into deadly enemies and deploying sophisticated weapons against one another.

Last month, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist force backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), expanded its presence in Hadramout and Al-Mahra, expelling internationally recognised government forces from several positions and spreading fighters across key positions in the two provinces.

For years, Saudi Arabia had tolerated a UAE-backed separatist expansion in southern Yemen. However, after secessionists tightened their grip on Hadramout and Al-Mahra - Yemeni provinces bordering the kingdom - the Saudi response was swift and forceful.

Riyadh used both aerial operations and ground forces to counter the separatist expansion. It also demanded the withdrawal of separatist forces from the two provinces and the departure of Emirati forces from the entire south.

Saudi-backed forces on Sunday retook the port city of Mukalla, the capital of the Hadramout province, with UAE-backed STC forces withdrawing.

Abdulsalam Mohammed, the head of the Yemeni Abaad Studies and Research Center, expects that the STC, which is spearheading the secessionist agenda in Yemen, will ultimately withdraw from areas in eastern Yemen that it recently seized.

Any refusal to comply with the Saudi-backed government would lead to a prolonged confrontation.

Although separatist forces possess thousands of well-armed fighters, their ability to withstand sustained Saudi airstrikes in desert terrain is limited.

Recent strikes have killed and wounded dozens of fighters, destroying their military equipment near outposts and along the main roads of Hadramout.

“In the coming months, the STC will become a component of the southern movement, and not the leading representative of the south,” Mohammed told The New Arab.

“The STC’s power and influence will be reduced as a result of its recent military escalation, which was a miscalculated adventure,” he added.

The future of southern separatism

Despite the success of its lightning offensive in early December, the STC now faces the military might of Saudi Arabia and thousands of its allied Yemeni fighters.

The coming months will be vital in determining whether the separatists can preserve both their military strength and political relevance in the south.

Abdulraqeeb, an STC soldier in Shabwa, told The New Arab that he and thousands of others like him are fighting not for personal gain, but for independence.

South Yemen was a sovereign state from 1967, the year Britain withdrew, until 1990, when it united with North Yemen. In 1994, an attempt to break away again resulted in a short civil war.

Recent losses in Hadramout, however, have demoralised the STC and dealt a blow to the movement. At least 80 of their forces have been killed in fighting with Saudi-backed forces and strikes since Friday, a military official said on Sunday.

“I never imagined Saudi warplanes would bomb us,” Abdulraqeeb told TNA. “It is a painful betrayal. We pose no threat to Saudi Arabia and do not seek to harm the kingdom. We are only struggling to regain our independence.”

On Saturday, the head of the STC, Aidrous Al-Zubaidi, declared in a televised speech that there would be a two-year transitional phase leading to a referendum on independence.

If military attacks on the south continue or if calls for dialogue over partition go unheeded, the STC would declare independence "immediately", Al-Zubaidi added.

For Abdulraqeeb, the year ahead will be decisive, as STC dominance in several southern provinces faces growing challenges.

“We have multiple adversaries on the ground, including the Houthis in northern Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and the Yemeni government,” he told TNA. “Tough days are coming.”

How the UAE could respond

The ongoing fighting between Saudi-backed forces and UAE-supported separatist fighters in Hadramout is a cause of serious concern for Yemen and the region.

A swift, decisive military victory by either side remains uncertain, raising the risk of prolonged instability in the south.

“There are many levers which Abu Dhabi might use if it decides to operate behind the scenes,” Yemeni analyst Abdulsalam Mohammed told TNA.

“These include supporting the Houthis, pushing STC forces to continue their fight against the Yemeni government, and funding arms and drug traffickers to carry out acts of chaos in Yemen,” Mohammed told TNA.

However, he believes that the UAE’s withdrawal from Yemen represents a significant shift in the country’s balance of power and could strengthen the UN-recognised government.

“The expulsion of the UAE and the weakening of the STC strengthen the legitimate government and give it more options against the Houthis, whether in peace or in war.”

Over the weekend, the UAE urged de-escalation and constructive dialogue to resolve Yemen’s internal disputes, affirming that "de-escalation and constructive dialogue remain the most effective path to overcoming current challenges".

What happens now?

A high-ranking military source in Yemen’s government said on Saturday that the expulsion of separatist forces from Hadramout will be followed by measures to retake the remaining governorates under STC control.

If this strategy is implemented in the coming months, the south may abruptly fall under government control. Should the separatists put up stiff resistance, a new and bloody chapter of violence could engulf some southern provinces, including Aden, Shabwa, Abyan and Lahj.

In recent years, Yemeni government forces and southern separatists have repeatedly clashed, but have usually acted upon orders from their backers, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to halt hostilities.

Strained ties between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh may, however, serve Yemen’s long-term interests, a Sanaa-based academic who wished to remain anonymous told TNA - but much is still uncertain.

“Riyadh allowed the UAE to pursue its agenda in Yemen, especially in the south, and that was destructive,” they said. “The UAE’s actions weakened the legitimate government, empowered separatists, and prolonged the war.”

Abu Dhabi’s retreat, or the weakening of the separatists, is not a cure-all for the conflict in Yemen, the academic added, but it reduces the complexity of the crisis and could help pave the way for a political or military agreement between the government and the Houthis.

“This year in Yemen could be a turning point - a leap toward peace or a slide into brutal war.”

Khalil Karim is a freelance journalist from Yemen

Edited by Charlie Hoyle