Shared threats: The making of an Egypt–Saudi security doctrine

In the shadow of the political fallout between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, Egypt and Saudi Arabia appear to be forging a regional alignment, one driven by escalating security threats and rapid geopolitical shifts.  

While neither Cairo nor Riyadh has publicly declared a formal alliance, their coordinated actions strongly suggest a tacit understanding and shared commitment to defending core national security redlines.

Whether in Yemen, Sudan, or Somalia, regions where state fragmentation, proxy conflicts, and non-state armed groups threaten broader Arab stability, the two countries seem to be increasingly aligning their strategies.

This approach was articulated implicitly by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in late January.

Egypt, he said, "categorically rejects" any fragmentation of regional states, including attempts to carve out territories, create parallel entities, or establish militias operating outside legitimate national armies and state institutions.

In recent years, Sisi has consistently upheld these principles, emphasising respect for the territorial integrity of fellow Arab states, the primacy of national armies, and the preservation of functioning state institutions.

What distinguishes his latest statement, however, according to analysts, is his country's shift from merely declaring these redlines to actively enforcing them.

Egyptian political commentator Islam Mansi says Cairo has begun implementing concrete, on-the-ground measures to influence developments in regional states, especially Sudan and Somalia, by providing direct support to their national armies.

"This assistance aims to protect Egypt’s core national security interests, preserve broader regional stability, and safeguard shared priorities among Red Sea coastal nations,” he told The New Arab.

Egypt views bolstering legitimate state institutions, particularly national armies, in these neighbouring conflict zones as a strategic necessity.

"By empowering these armies, Cairo aims to counter fragmentation and prevent the emergence of ungoverned spaces that could harbour extremist groups or foreign proxies," Mansi explained.

In Sudan, Cairo has reportedly escalated its enforcement of long-standing "red lines" by launching airstrikes targeting the supply routes of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), particularly those running through southern Libya.

The 9 January strikes appeared to be part of a pattern of discreet but repeated operations aimed at disrupting arms, fuel, and logistical flows allegedly facilitated through Libyan territory.

This military activity coincides with indications of broader Egyptian preparations to bolster the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).

These include upgrades to a military airfield near the shared border with Sudan and Libya, signalling the potential for deeper direct involvement in the Sudanese civil war.

From rhetoric to resolve

Egypt's military actions in Sudan come only weeks after Sisi invoked his country's 1976 joint defence pact with the southern neighbouring country during a meeting with SAF chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Cairo.

In that encounter, the Egyptian president explicitly affirmed Egypt's right to adopt "whatever measures it deems necessary" to safeguard its national security amid Sudan's escalating civil war and fragmentation risks.

This assertive position, meanwhile, mirrors Saudi Arabia's approach in southern Yemen, where Riyadh has actively countered the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC).

Notable actions by the Saudis have so far included - among many other things - airstrikes on weapons shipments destined for the STC at al-Mukalla port in eastern Yemen in late December 2025.

Analysts observe that both Cairo and Riyadh are now coordinating quietly in multiple hotspots to defend their national security and prevent the further breakdown of fragile states across the region.

"The two capitals closely align in their strategies to stop the fragmentation of regional countries," Saudi political analyst Omar Saif Qaid told TNA.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia, he added, share a firm conviction that the disintegration of nations, such as Sudan, Yemen, and Somalia, would create direct and severe security threats.

This unified stance, Qaid noted, reflects a strategic recognition that instability and state collapse in neighbouring or nearby countries do not remain contained.

In Somalia, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are increasingly coordinating efforts to bolster the federal government to help it preserve Somalia's territorial integrity, and combat Al-Shabab, the al-Qaeda-affiliated militant group that continues to challenge state control across large swathes of the country.

This support arrives at a critical juncture, as Somalia grapples with the acute risks of fragmentation, including through the possible secession of Somaliland, which was recognised by Israel in December last year.

This recognition has intensified concerns in Mogadishu and among regional powers about the potential unravelling of Somalia's unity.

Red lines in action

By decisively intervening to block the secession of southern Yemen, Saudi Arabia averted what could have become a multi-generational national security disaster that would leave Riyadh vulnerable to persistent border threats, Red Sea instability, and empowered rival proxies for decades.

Similarly, Egypt's active support for the SAF and its measures to halt Sudan's potential breakup comes in defence of its own existential interests, from Nile water security and border stability to preventing a chaotic southern flank that could invite endless spillover violence and threats to the Suez Canal, the Arab country's economic lifeline.

Egypt is, meanwhile, aligning with Saudi efforts in Yemen to safeguard Red Sea maritime security and counter separatist dynamics that threaten shared strategic waterways, while Saudi Arabia is backing Egypt's stance in Sudan to protect the same vital Red Sea corridor from fragmentation-induced chaos.

This pattern extends to Somalia, where the two countries coordinate, including through emerging military-security pacts and diplomatic pressure, to reinforce Mogadishu's central authority.

Analysts describe this as a "deliberate, cross-regional strategy" that - among the aforementioned objectives - aims to prevent the exploitation of divisions within these states by external actors.

Sudanese political analyst Osman Mirghani told TNA that prolonged conflicts across the region leave devastated states dangerously vulnerable.

"The vacuum generated by wars in these countries transforms them into safe havens for terrorist organisations, and even hostile foreign powers, posing direct and serious threats to the security of neighbouring states," Mirghani explained.

“This instability will inevitably endanger the security of the Red Sea, which remains a vital economic artery for both Egypt and Saudi Arabia," he added, highlighting the broader strategic implications.

He and other analysts believe that Sudan's potential fragmentation would dramatically worsen instability across the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea basin, intensifying proxy rivalries, prolonging humanitarian disasters, and creating a nightmare scenario for Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which straddle this vital waterway.

In parallel, the emerging Egyptian-Saudi coordination in Somalia serves the same overarching objective of preventing spillover effects that could destabilise the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Of particular concern to the two countries are Somaliland's deepening ties with Israel, which have raised alarms about the possibility of Israel establishing a naval or military presence along Somaliland's strategic coastline near the Gulf of Aden entrance, potentially granting it a foothold to monitor or influence one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints.

Tightrope diplomacy

As Egypt deepens its alignment with Saudi Arabia, it finds itself increasingly at odds with a longstanding economic powerhouse and close ally, namely the UAE.

Abu Dhabi is a key player in the regional conflicts where Egypt and Saudi Arabia are actively working to preserve territorial integrity and central authorities.

In Yemen, Abu Dhabi provides backing to the STC. In Sudan, it is widely accused of supporting the RSF. In Somalia, meanwhile, perceptions of alignment with Israel have fuelled suspicions that UAE policies indirectly bolster separatist trends in the Horn of Africa.

This perceived convergence between Abu Dhabi and Israeli interests was sharply captured by a Saudi commentator, who recently described the UAE’s regional conduct as "an Israeli project, wearing the attire of Abu Dhabi".

Nevertheless, Egypt's opposition to these UAE-backed dynamics places Cairo in a precarious position.

Analysts in the Egyptian capital note that while defending its core national security and geostrategic interests, such as Red Sea stability, Nile water security, and border integrity, Egypt must carefully avoid alienating the UAE, its largest Arab investor by a wide margin.

Over recent years, the UAE has committed tens of billions of dollars in investments to Egypt's economy, including landmark deals like the $35 billion Ras Al Hekma development project and current expansions in critical sectors, such as ports, infrastructure, and state asset acquisitions.

These inflows have provided vital economic lifelines to a country facing persistent fiscal challenges, making the UAE a partner that Cairo cannot afford to lose lightly.

This highlights the fine line Egypt walks as it navigates this tension, analysts say.

Mansi said Egypt has so far managed to safeguard its core strategic interests without jeopardising its vital relationship with the UAE.

"Egypt is achieving notable success in protecting its strategic priorities, while maintaining strong ties with the UAE," Mansi explained.

"Although genuine and credible differences exist between Cairo and Abu Dhabi, both capitals have demonstrated a clear ability to contain and manage these divergences, ensuring that bilateral relations remain stable and protected," he added.

Saleh Salem is an Egyptian journalist

Edited by Charlie Hoyle