Just a couple of days before he was due to meet with President Donald Trump at the White House last Monday, Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa decided to pounce - launching a series of sweeping raids across the country targeting 61 different Islamic State (ISIS) cells and arresting 71 individuals.
Syrian security officials announced this as a “pre-emptive campaign to neutralise threats before they materialise,” but the message to the Americans was clear - Syria is a serious and effective security partner in the fight against ISIS.
Two days later, a Syrian government official would confirm that the government had joined the US-led anti-ISIS coalition. A dramatic turn of events considering Al-Sharaa’s own murky history with the group and - recently removed - listing by the US as a Globally Designated Terrorist.
What is the anti-ISIS coalition?
Syria is the 90th member of what the US State Department calls ‘The Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS’. The association, formed in 2014 after ISIS swept through Iraq and captured Mosul, is made up of a loose collection of countries that are “committed to tackling the group on all fronts,” according to the coalition’s website.
The exact nature of what Syria's involvement in the coalition means on the ground remains unclear, according to analysts. Recent reports suggest that the US and Syrian governments are currently in talks to establish a US military presence in an airbase near Damascus.
Beyond the military component, members also pledge to “weaken ISIS’s economic infrastructure, prevent the flow of foreign fighters across borders, restore public services to liberated areas and counter the group's propaganda”.
Analysts agree that it is likely to see increased intelligence sharing. A recent incident in which coalition forces mistakenly killed a Syrian intelligence operative undercover inside ISIS highlighted the disconnect between the two anti-terror campaigns.
Syria's geopolitical pivot
Just a year on from the fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, Syria’s geopolitical pivot towards Washington has been sizable, with this latest development representing “the most significant development in US-Syria relations for years,” according to Caroline Rose, Director at the New Lines Institute.
“It demonstrates that the US administration trusts Syria’s new government enough that they can actively contribute to the anti-ISIS mission,” Rose told The New Arab.
This development hasn’t come out of nowhere. The government and US forces have been engaged in informal intelligence sharing - Syrian officials and Western diplomats have recently acknowledged the relationship dates back to 2016.
Syrian security services and US forces have also taken part in several joint operations targeting the group, including a joint raid in northern Syria which killed senior ISIS Leader, Dhiya Zawba al-Hardani, in July.
Several of the government's applications to join this coalition have previously been rejected due to Al-Sharaa’s listing on the US Specially Designated Global Terror List - a position which was only removed days prior to his meeting with Trump.
“For Al-Sharaa, this step is an important way of legitimising himself in the eyes of the US,” says Henri Barkey, an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, “perhaps with the ultimate intention of getting the sanctions lifted.”
Following Al-Sharaa’s meeting in the White House, Trump announced an extension of the sanctions waiver in place since May.
Barkey believes a strong relationship between Damascus and Washington could be essential for attracting foreign investment from North America, Europe, and the Gulf.
Syria’s accession may also align with Trump's “long-term goal of withdrawing troops from the country,” Aron Lund, a fellow at Century International and Middle East analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, told TNA.
“If it trusts the government to counter ISIS, it could make them confident to further reduce their footprint.”
The US military currently has roughly 900 soldiers stationed in a number of bases clustered around the autonomously controlled northeast, with US Special Envoy Tom Barrack signalling in June their intention to consolidate their footprint to a single position.
What does this mean for the SDF?
Talks between the Syrian government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to integrate their military and political structures have been ongoing since March, although they have largely stalled, with an impending Syrian-Turkish deadline set for the end of the year soon approaching.
The government’s accession to the anti-ISIS coalition could have serious implications for the SDF, who still control large parts of the country’s northeast.
“The SDF has been the US’s primary security partner [in Syria] for years,” says Lund. “However, if Damascus becomes an effective anti-terror partner, it still requires a solution in the northeast because the Syrian government doesn’t hold sway there.”
Mazloum Abdi, the leader of the SDF, welcomed the announcement, saying that it was a “pivotal step towards enhancing collaborative efforts aimed at achieving the enduring defeat of ISIS and eliminating its threat to the region”.
Although Lund believes there might be some consternation that it “could decrease their leverage in talks with Damascus but that it may be part of the solution in resolving these negotiations”.
Rose similarly concurs that this reflects a new strategy by US officials in the face of the stalled Damascus-SDF talks.
“They are trying to use the coalition as a framework for collaboration between the two sides,” she explains. “The aim is to foster security coordination and build trust between the camps, ultimately paving the way for full integration.”
Rose recognises a risk to this strategy as it may create a culture of competition between the two sides as they both seek to court US support, but “if properly steered it could equally foster trust”.
A hedge against Israel
This move could also upend Israel's strategy in Syria. It signals that “the US is willing to serve as a hedge against any further Israeli strikes,” explains Rose. She notes that a US military advisory presence at a joint base in Damascus will make Netanyahu think twice about striking government buildings.
During a wave of sectarian violence in July, Israel struck the Ministry of Defence headquarters in the heart of Damascus - alongside striking in the vicinity of the Presidential Palace on two separate occasions in May and July.
Syria and Israel have been holding a number of direct talks to resolve a stand-off in the country’s south. Israel further encroached upon Syrian territory from their positions in the already occupied Golan Heights in the days after Assad’s fall last December.
They have forbidden Damascus from deploying its military in the south and have intervened in support of breakaway factions in the Druze-majority region of Suweida.
This development, alongside the warm relations on show during Al-Sharaa’s recent White House visit “is a very clear message to Netanyahu that this is our preferred partner in Syria whether you like it or not”.
Ultimately, Syria’s accession to the coalition formalises a geopolitical alignment that would have been unthinkable a year ago.
Washington now views the leadership in Damascus as a central partner in shaping regional security, and this realignment may, in turn, determine Syria’s ability to preserve its territorial integrity amid simmering tensions with both Israel and the SDF.
Cian Ward is a journalist based in Damascus, covering conflict, migration, and humanitarian issues
Follow him on X: @CP__Ward