South Korea is presently seeking weapons contracts worth up to $15 billion with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), an indication of its growing status as an arms supplier to the Middle East.
Seoul has already secured several significant multi-billion-dollar arms deals with regional countries in recent years and seems poised to gain even more in the near future.
Several Middle Eastern countries value the East Asian country’s homegrown Western-standard military hardware and Seoul’s extensive and generous technology transfers and co-production arrangements, which it readily offers as part of its arms sales.
“I would generally see these as advantages over purchases from the US or Europe,” Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, told The New Arab.
“The pro-Western parts of MENA (the Middle East and North Africa) are hungry for tech transfers and want to avoid end-use requirements as much as possible.”
Seoul hopes to secure approximately $15 billion worth of contracts from the UAE, according to media reports in November.
Following a meeting with Emirati President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi on 18 November, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung announced a “comprehensive value chain” that would include joint defence development, local production, and exports to third countries.
The arrangement, Lee added, “will raise the chances of our defence firms securing deals worth more than $15 billion”.
The development follows Abu Dhabi’s evaluation of South Korea’s upcoming KF-21 Boramae stealth fighter jet. Manufacturer Korea Aerospace Industries exhibited a KF-21 prototype at the Dubai Air Show, which coincided with President Lee’s visit.
The UAE previously suspended a deal for the US fifth-generation Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II stealth strike fighter in 2021.
“South Korea is moving in the direction of becoming a leading arms supplier, though it will remain unable to replace the US on the fifth-generation fighter jet front anytime soon,” Bohl said.
“The most advanced equipment will continue to come from the US, but South Korea will likely play a greater and greater role for defence diversification across the region.”
Seoul is currently the 10th-largest arms exporter worldwide. It aims to become the fourth largest by 2027. More Middle East deals would play no small part in helping it attain that ambitious position and possibly surpass some traditional arms suppliers to that region along the way.
“South Korea is positioning itself to be a customised provider to a number of Middle East countries in keeping with its global defence sector strategy,” Nicholas Heras, senior director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute, told TNA.
That strategy, he elaborated, “is to emphasise that South Korea, as a major industrial country, not only has advanced technology as a result of its electronics, trade, and its manufacturing capabilities”.
Seoul also wants to convey that what sets it apart, its “sell-point” to Middle Eastern countries, is that “its defence companies emphasise customer service and return on investment for long-term partnerships”.
Such arrangements are arguably ideal for leading Gulf Arab states like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which seek rapid development and expansion of their arms industries and the simultaneous reduction of their hitherto over-reliance on external supplies and support.
South Korea already played a role in the development of one of the region’s foremost arms industries and manufacturers, namely Turkey.
For example, Turkey’s T-155 Firtina howitzer, which participated in Turkish military operations in Iraq, Syria, and Libya over the past decade, was developed through technology transfer from South Korea’s K9 Thunder.
Additionally, Turkey’s Altay main battle tank, which Ankara aims to gradually replace its older imported German Leopard 1 and American M60 tanks with, is also based on South Korea’s K2 Black Panther.
Both systems feature significant Turkish-designed components and subsystems, but the foundational designs are Korean. Turkey also has the option to export them, another perk of military cooperation with South Korea that the UAE may have soon.
More recently, South Korea reached a $1.7 billion deal with Egypt for an estimated 216 K9 howitzers. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s arms database, the agreement includes “production under license in Egypt and technology transfers” with deliveries planned by 2028.
Since 2022, South Korea has also secured contracts with three countries for its advanced, medium-range KM-SAM air defence missile system. These include the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, with Baghdad expecting to field the system in early 2026. While Saudi Arabia and the UAE have advanced American-made air defences such as the Patriot and THAAD, the KM-SAM marks a significant upgrade for Iraq’s less advanced air defence.
Additionally, unconfirmed reports suggest Baghdad is considering purchasing up to 250 K2 tanks to replace its older American-made M1 Abrams fleet.
“I think there is a chance that certain Russian and Chinese systems will face stiffer competition from South Korea, especially in air defences and fighters, in part because South Korea’s purchases will avoid CAATSA sanctions from the US,” Bohl said.
“But it’s not clear that KM-SAM systems would replace American air defences (particularly advanced ones, like THAAD), or could compete with Israeli air defences in Abraham Accord countries.”
Still, Seoul’s arms sales have several unique selling points that set it apart from many of its Western competitors in the Middle East.
“South Korea is a major non-NATO ally of the United States, which means its technology is advanced,” New Lines Institute’s Heras said.
“Combined with its domestic industrial capabilities and know-how in terms of customer service in other industries, such as consumer electronics and the automobile industry, that really provides South Korean companies with an intuitive understanding of how to engage in regions like the Middle East.”
In that region, he added, customers “want to feel that they are being provided top quality service,” which is “flexible and available on demand.”
“So essentially, South Korea is trying to provide a comprehensive industrial approach to its security sector,” Heras said.
On the other hand, several factors could put South Korea at a significant disadvantage. For example, RANE’s Bohl noted that Middle Eastern states may hesitate to rely too heavily on South Korea in the event of war in Asia.
“The biggest question is how long Seoul can carry out arms purchases before a major geopolitical crisis erupts in Asia, whether that’s over Taiwan or North Korea,” he said.
“If that is the case, then South Korea will rapidly become an unreliable export partner, something I suspect must weigh in the back of the minds of its purchasers in the region,” the analyst added.
“In other words, while the region will be happy to take South Korea’s technology and equipment, they will not exclusively rely on South Korea in case there is a supply interruption in Asia.”
Heras of New Lines Institute sees a broader problem that could potentially impact South Korea’s overall competitiveness with those more established arms exporters to the Middle East.
“South Korea has one major disadvantage to other suppliers, such as Russia and China, and never mind the United States or France, which is that South Korean hardware, especially security hardware, is still relatively untested in the field of battle,” he said.
“Because of this, there are some lingering questions as to whether South Korean defence technology will be rigorous enough, durable enough, and will give South Korea’s customers a qualitative advantage on the battlefield.”
Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist based in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, who writes about Middle East affairs
Follow him on X: @pauliddon