Beirut, Lebanon - Pope Leo XIV's visit to Lebanon has raised existential questions among Christian communities, particularly in the Levant, where their numbers are shrinking due to migration, political and economic changes, and wars.
No official statistics exist for Lebanon's Christian population, but according to estimates, their numbers stand at around 2.24 million people - around 33% of Lebanon's population. The Maronite Catholic Church and the Eastern Orthodox Church are among the most prominent communities.
The visit by the Catholic Church’s leader has divided experts and citizens alike, with many viewing it as a symbolic moral event that will make little material difference to the Church's faithful.
Dr George Harb, a professor of political philosophy, believes the papal visit had diplomatic objectives more than religious purposes. In his view, the visit carried the Vatican’s message that Lebanon is a strong country despite all the challenges it faces, most notably the threat of another Israeli war, and can rise beyond political tensions and divisions.
Others, such as Dr Dal Hitti, a university professor and political analyst, say the papal visit gave moral support to Christians in the region, but notes that previous papal visits have not produced any tangible impact in limiting migration or addressing the structural crises that Christians face in the region.
Researcher Myriam Sherbati, who specialises in Christian affairs, says Pope Leo XIV's visit to Lebanon maintained ‘neutrality’, without touching on the real challenges threatening Christians in the region, or Lebanon, specifically.
While providing a moral boost to the Middle East’s Christians, it did little to offer a practical project for addressing their crises.
Migration and demographic decline across the Middle East
Julie Yaacoub, 25, does not hide her desire to leave Lebanon. She says she is not an exception, because "the idea of migration” crosses the minds of many Lebanese.
"Leaving Lebanon opens new professional doors for me and provides stability for my life that no longer exists in Lebanon," she told The New Arab.
Lawyer and historical researcher Shadi El Haber shares the same motivation, largely centred on job opportunities, stability, and economic drivers.
"The idea came back to me many times," the lawyer says, but he has ruled it out because of what he sees as a duty to stay in his country and a sense of belonging to Lebanon.
For El Haber, concerns about the Christian presence in Lebanon are not just related to demographic decline but are also related to losing a societal and political role. According to him, the dwindling Christian presence is a tangible result of conflict and wars.
Julie from the Keserwan district, northeast of Beirut, says most families in her village have migrated. Houses are empty, and migration is no longer just from the countryside to the city, but from the city to other countries.
On one street, there is only an elderly man and woman left after all four of their children migrated abroad. There are dozens of other similar cases, she says.
According to Dr Sherbati, the Church has come to tolerate what is known as the ‘quiet’ or ‘soft displacement’ of its faithful, as has happened in Canada, Australia, and the United States in the past. She adds that the papal visit did not address the roots of this crisis, nor provide solutions for the phenomenon of migration.
Journalist Evlina Mahous comes from the coastal Batroun area in northern Lebanon and lives in the town of Zgharta, which suffers from an acute migration crisis.
"Ehden is the cradle of Maronite nuns and has the oldest Maronite church dating to 749 AD - Mar Mema Church," she told TNA.
But migration has risen noticeably in the last six years in the town, one of northern Lebanon’s most marginalised, because of deteriorating services, a lack of job opportunities, and the economic crisis that has cast a shadow over Lebanon since 2019.
Evlina hasn’t considered migrating, however, because she "believes in Lebanon” and its uniqueness.
"I have great hope in holding onto Lebanon and staying because what Lebanon has been exposed to in terms of wars would have collapsed another country long ago. Lebanon has a strange ability to live and survive, especially in southern Lebanon, which witnessed the miracles of Christ."
Christian anxieties across the region
Concerns for Christians in Lebanon are similar for communities in Syria. Researcher Bassel Kasnasrallah, former advisor to the Mufti of Syria for interfaith affairs, believes the papal visit "may ease difficulties but does not stop migration," adding that "temptations outside the homeland's borders are much stronger than possibilities inside it".
He believes Christians have few opportunities to thrive in the region in the future, citing a desire for better living standards.
"We lack reassurance," Nasrallah says, adding that "reassurance is more important than freedom for us, and that is why Syrian Christians migrate."
The war in Syria led to massive waves of Christian displacement that emptied many Christian cities and towns. The recent bombing of a church in Damascus has only heightened the community’s fears for the future.
In July, a suicide bomber detonated himself using an explosive vest inside Mar Elias Church in the Dweila neighbourhood, killing 22 people and injuring 59 others, according to the Syrian Ministry of Health.
The attack is the first of its kind in the Syrian capital since the overthrow of former President Bashar Al-Assad's regime in December 2024, and the first attack inside a church in Syria since the war began in 2011, with Assad’s crackdown on peaceful protests.
Nasrallah notes that a hundred years ago, Christians constituted 30% of Aleppo's population and 10% of Syria's population.
These numbers have declined significantly due to migration and security threats from extremist organisations, forcing thousands to leave their homes and flee Syria to seek safety.
The long-term decline of Christian communities is evident across the Middle East. In Palestine, Christian numbers declined from about 10-15% of the population during the British Mandate to approximately 1% of the population today, with most living under Israel’s military occupation.
Figures from 1932 indicate Christians constituted about 70% of Lebanon's population. Today, it is around 30%, according to most studies.
Similarly, in Iraq, the Christian community has seen a dramatic decline since 2003, decreasing from over one million to around 250,000 today, largely because of the Gulf War, the US invasion, and persecution from extremist groups like the Islamic State (IS).
In Turkey, the Christian population has declined to around 1% of the population.
Dr Hitti describes this decline as "an existential haemorrhage threatening Christians' presence and their historical role".
Future scenarios for Christians in the Middle East
Once the cradle of multiple religions and a place of shared coexistence, the shrinking Christian presence in the Middle East is a cautionary tale for the future of statebuilding and development.
"We are heading toward disappearance unless the mentality changes and we adopt acceptance of the other to build stable states," Dr Hitti says.
Researcher Sherbati says a fundamental challenge facing the Christian presence in the Levant today is the lack of a political vision by Church institutions and their inability to respond to transformations in the region.
Instead, the burden falls on groups and individuals themselves, who often choose migration as one of their only real solutions.
This article is published in collaboration with Egab