Netanyahu's last war? The struggle for Israel's political future

In a typically theatrical display, US President Donald J. Trump addressed the Israeli Knesset on the day the final Israeli captives returned from Gaza, and used the occasion to call for a pardon for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Casting Netanyahu as a heroic “wartime leader” in the aftermath of Israel’s two-year genocidal campaign in Gaza, Trump dismissed his ally’s corruption charges with a joke: “Cigars and champagne - who the hell cares?”

The remarks functioned as a thinly veiled political endorsement ahead of Israel’s next elections, due within a year.

As Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, Netanyahu has long demonstrated a talent for weathering political storms. In recent years, however, his popularity has waned. Yet with the return of the last living Israeli captives held since 7 October 2023, Netanyahu appears to view the moment as a potential turning point - a chance to recast his leadership and seek political redemption amid deepening domestic discontent.

Facing political division, a pending corruption trial, and the fallout from the 7 October security breach, Netanyahu is intent on rebranding himself as a wartime leader who delivered results.

He portrays the final release of Israeli captives from Gaza as vindication of his military strategy. Trump’s vocal praise may help him regain traction, despite the lasting damage to his standing among the Israeli public.

Netanyahu may gain a temporary boost from the captives’ return and Trump’s endorsement, but their political impact could soon be eclipsed by the fragile ceasefire’s trajectory, Trump’s 20-point “peace” plan, and reactions from far-right coalition partners.

Will the tenuous ceasefire hold or collapse?

The ceasefire agreement championed by Trump remains fragile, and the road ahead is fraught with serious and unresolved challenges. Although it has been touted as a diplomatic breakthrough, the deal rests on a precarious foundation, with critical questions still unanswered.

Chief among them is the issue of how - and whether - Hamas can or will be disarmed, a condition which remains both politically explosive and logistically uncertain.

Equally contentious is the future governance of post-war Gaza: who will assume control of the war-shattered enclave, and under what legitimacy or mandate?

These fundamental questions remain suspended in ambiguity, threatening the coherence of the agreement itself. Moreover, the sequencing of Israel’s incremental military withdrawals introduces further complexity. Any misstep, delay, or disagreement over timing could quickly derail the process.

Success in Phase I offers no guarantee of progress beyond it.

In terms of where Netanyahu stands politically amid all this, he is “secure for now”, believes Barbara Slavin, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center.

“Phase 1 is being well received in Israel. The question is how long that support will continue during the months ahead, assuming the ceasefire holds,” she told The New Arab.

Netanyahu could receive a “political boost” in light of Hamas releasing the last Israelis held captive in Gaza, said Gordon Gray, the former US ambassador to Tunisia, in an interview with TNA.

“He may now have more space to manoeuvre, and no Israeli political figure is more adept at doing so than him. That being said, most Israelis apparently credit Trump, not Netanyahu, for the release of the hostages,” he added.

Speaking to TNA, Marco Carnelos, the former Italian ambassador to Iraq, said that with the last Israelis held captive in Gaza now released, one can expect a large segment of Israel’s political establishment to “settle its scores” with Netanyahu.

“Israeli public opinion does not seem to give to Netanyahu the credit for having finally got the hostages released,” he commented.

The former Italian diplomat also pointed to the general consensus that there could have been more Israelis brought home from Gaza had Netanyahu “been more reasonable earlier when he had the occasion to have more hostages released alive”.

This may leave many Israelis angry with Netanyahu for years to come.

Moreover, the deep divisions that fractured Israeli society before the Gaza war remain unresolved. While Netanyahu has long been, as Gordon Gray described, the “ultimate political escape artist,” many Israelis continue to hold him responsible for the Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023, which unfolded on his watch.

As political space gradually opens for a closer examination of the security failures that day, public scrutiny is likely to intensify, Gray noted.

Israel's coalition politics in crisis

Although the Israeli cabinet ultimately ratified the deal to secure the release of all remaining Israeli captives held in Gaza in exchange for Palestinian prisoners/hostages, the decision passed despite very strong objections from Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners.

Key figures such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, and the majority of members from their Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism parties vocally condemned the agreement.

These hardline ministers argued that such an exchange would severely compromise Israel’s national security, embolden Hamas, and set a dangerous precedent by rewarding what they see as “terrorist blackmail.”

Ben-Gvir has consistently opposed previous ceasefire and hostage-exchange deals, often leveraging his position to obstruct negotiations. He has publicly boasted about having thwarted earlier attempts at reaching similar agreements during the two-year war on Gaza, portraying his resistance as a matter of ideological principle.

His continued defiance reflects the broader tension within Netanyahu’s coalition, where far-right elements remain deeply hostile to any deal that could be interpreted as a concession, irrespective of the humanitarian stakes involved.

“We will see intense political jockeying in the run-up to the Israeli elections, which need to be held by the end of October 2026. [Ben Gvir and Smotrich] lead parties that hold 13 out of the 120 seats in Knesset, so they can bring down Netanyahu’s governing coalition at any time,” Gray told TNA.

“The question is whether they calculate they would do better in the next election, or whether they assess they can exert more political influence on Netanyahu by threatening to leave the coalition without actually doing so,” he added.

“The far-right factions have had considerable influence over Netanyahu's room for manoeuvre in the current government. But they seem to be losing influence,” John Feffer, the director of Foreign Policy In Focus, a project of the Institute for Policy Studies, explained to TNA.

Polling shows Otzma Yehudit slipping to six seats - down from nine on 3 October and equal to its current tally. Religious Zionism faces a steeper fall, polling below the threshold despite currently holding seven seats. In contrast, support for the ultra-Orthodox parties has remained stable.

“The opposition parties, which have championed a ceasefire deal, should be able to take advantage of a post-war environment. But Netanyahu has proven surprisingly adept at cobbling together coalition deals and remaining in power,” noted Feffer.

Beyond Netanyahu? Why a post-Bibi Israel may look the same

Even if Netanyahu loses the next election and far-right figures like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich exit the cabinet, Israel’s broader political landscape may remain largely unchanged.

“Perhaps the settler policies in the West Bank would be scaled back a bit; perhaps the post-settlement approach to Gaza would be less punitive. But the opposition, which has derived its identity from opposing Netanyahu and his most extreme war policies, hasn't put forward a substantially different approach to relations with Palestine or the region as a whole,” Feffer told TNA.

“Netanyahu, however much he might be hated by a large number of Israelis, has succeeded in dragging Israeli politics in the direction of the far right,” he emphasised.

Israeli public opinion remains difficult to gauge.

“It blames Netanyahu for the hostages, but it widely agrees on the carnage he carried out in Gaza in the last two years, [and] not to mention…a large part of the opposition has also agreed with the Netanyahu Government's indiscriminate killing in Gaza,” Carnelos explained to TNA.

“It is very difficult to have reliable predictions in this highly unusual situation,” he concluded.

Whether Netanyahu clings to power or is eventually cast aside, the deeper legacy he leaves behind may be harder to dislodge. Over the past two years, he has not only led Israel as it has waged a barbaric genocide in Gaza but also reshaped the country’s political centre of gravity.

Even his fiercest rivals often echo his security-first rhetoric and have largely endorsed the brutal campaign in Gaza.

Netanyahu’s legacy may ultimately be defined less by whether he survives the next election than by the ideological terrain he leaves in his wake. A post-Bibi Israel may not look all that different.

Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics

Follow him on X: @GiorgioCafiero