Israel’s military strike on Doha on Tuesday marked a defining moment - not just for Qatar, but for the entire security architecture of the Gulf.
In a move that stunned observers across the region, Israel targeted Hamas leaders in the Qatari capital, shattering longstanding assumptions that members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) were off-limits for direct Israeli military aggression.
Such an attack on a residential neighbourhood in Qatar, which is a prosperous, stable country known for mediating conflicts across the region and beyond, is unprecedented. The explosions that shook Doha were extremely traumatic for Qatari nationals and expatriates in the city.
As a country with many close friends in the Middle East and across the world, the solidarity from a long list of governments came as no surprise. The strongest shows of support came from Qatar’s Gulf Arab allies.
Their swift condemnations of this strike highlighted a GCC-wide perception that Israel’s hostility toward Qatar was an attack on all six members of the sub-regional institution.
Now the Gulf will seek to respond in a manner that strengthens GCC unity and sets a strong precedent for what happens if any foreign power wages such an act of aggression against any Gulf Arab state.
It is easy to understand why countries across the Middle East rushed to show solidarity with Qatar after the strike. Even in capitals closely aligned with the West - from Amman and Cairo to Riyadh - there must be a growing sense of unease.
If Israel can bomb Doha, the capital of a US major non-NATO ally in the Gulf, and face no immediate consequences, who’s safe? Qatar isn’t just any GCC member - it hosted Trump just four months ago and made countless headlines for gifting him a jumbo jet.
The message this sends across the region is chilling: if this can happen to Doha, it can happen anywhere.
“Partners and allies around the Middle East will be watching the Israeli strike on Qatar and wondering if they might be next, not only in Turkey but also in Oman which has hosted Houthi delegates and been as involved as Qatar in regional diplomacy and mediation efforts,” noted Dr Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a fellow for the Middle East at the Baker Institute, in an interview with The New Arab.
A shattered security guarantee: US-GCC ties under pressure
For the Gulf Arab monarchies, what makes this strike particularly disturbing is the assumed role of the United States. Whether through active cooperation or a quiet green light, Washington’s involvement has deeply unsettled its traditional Gulf partners. The consequences for US relations with Qatar and other GCC states are likely to be profound.
Doubts about America’s reliability as a defence partner have long simmered in the Gulf. During Barack Obama’s presidency, Gulf Arab officials grew increasingly uneasy with Washington’s regional posture.
The US response to the 2010–11 Arab Spring uprisings, its hesitation to enforce the so-called “red line” in Syria in August 2013, and the decision to negotiate and ultimately sign the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran in June 2015 all contributed to a deepening sense in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and other Gulf Arab capitals that the Obama administration was failing to understand the security threats they faced.
During Trump’s first term, his initial support for the blockade on Qatar in June 2017 - and the administration’s response to the September 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco - sparked great concern about Washington’s willingness to defend the sovereignty and security of all GCC members.
These anxieties only deepened under President Joe Biden. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, Washington’s perceived inaction following the Houthi strikes on the UAE in January 2022, and the controversial US/UK-led bombing campaign in Yemen that began in January 2024 have all compounded a growing sense of strategic uncertainty in Gulf capitals.
Yet none of those episodes compares to the Israeli strike on Doha. This time, the issue is not merely about the US failing to protect its Gulf partners from external threats. It is about Washington appearing to enable a hostile military power to strike a GCC member’s capital.
This perceived complicity marks a far more serious breach. No matter what reassurances come from Washington, rebuilding trust will be difficult, if not impossible.
While the Israeli and American leadership claim that the US had nothing to do with this attack, that is difficult for many in the region to believe. But, even if that were the case, then the message would be that Washington failed to stop the strike, which would also downgrade regional confidence in the United States’ ability to protect GCC states from such attacks.
In a TNA interview, Dr Courtney Freer, a fellow at Emory University, warned that this strike on Doha “could be a potentially major setback for US relations with the Gulf”. She said that the unprecedented Israeli attack raises fundamental questions about how much the GCC states can trust Washington, asking, “what is the utility of the US security umbrella when things like this happen?”
Given that the recent Israeli strike failed to eliminate all its intended Hamas targets, the possibility of renewed Israeli attacks on Doha cannot be ruled out.
Whether the Trump administration grants Tel Aviv a free hand or chooses to restrain further action will significantly impact the future of US-GCC relations.
“The decision Washington makes at this juncture will define its path and the future of its relationships in the region. We have now reached a turning point for Washington,” Dr Steven Wright, an associate professor of International Relations at Hamad Bin Khalifa University, told TNA.
Trump spoke to Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani shortly after the Israeli strike, thanking them for their country’s friendship with the United States.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt explained in a briefing that the president’s view is that the attack was “unfortunate”, albeit while calling the goal of eliminating Hamas “worthy”.
The Trump administration also vowed to the leadership in Doha that the US would not allow Tel Aviv to wage follow-up strikes. But the truth is Qatar, and the rest of the Arab world, have little reason to view these assurances as credible. Only the actions taken by the White House - not Trump’s rhetoric - will matter.
“The United States must not only unequivocally condemn Israel’s actions as a shocking, reckless, and flagrant violation of international law. It also needs to recognise this as a watershed moment for its own future relations with Israel and the Arab world,” Dr Wright told TNA.
“The broader question is again; how does the US-Qatari relationship survive this? What will Trump say about this? Is there anything that Trump could say that would erase the memory of this day from the minds of any Qataris? I don’t know what this is or whether that’s possible,” concluded Dr Freer.
The Gulf at a crossroads
The Israeli strike on Doha has brought US-Gulf relations to a critical crossroads. For decades, Washington positioned itself as the ultimate security guarantor in the Gulf, a stabilising force capable of deterring external threats and preserving the sovereignty of its Gulf Arab allies and partners.
That image now lies in tatters. Whatever role the US played in the Israeli attack, the perception among many in the region is the same: Washington cannot be trusted to guarantee the security of GCC states - even from America’s closest ally in the Middle East.
In this context, the implications go far beyond Qatar. The entire framework of US-GCC security cooperation is now under strain. Gulf Arab leaders - some more than others already hedging their bets through deeper ties with China, Russia, and Turkey - may further accelerate their diversification away from an increasingly unreliable United States.
Moreover, the erosion of Washington’s credibility will likely empower regional actors - state and non-state alike - who see the Gulf’s vulnerability as an opportunity to reshape the balance of power.
The Trump administration must now decide whether to confront this rupture with seriousness or complacency. Words of regret or half-hearted reassurances will not suffice.
What GCC members are demanding now is proof - through real policy shifts - that their security concerns are understood, respected, and prioritised.
Failing that, the US risks watching a vital region slip further from its orbit, with consequences that could reshape the geopolitics of the Middle East for years, if not decades, to come.
Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics
Follow him on X: @GiorgioCafiero