Earlier this month, at a Central Asia summit in Washington, news broke that Kazakhstan, a vast, oil-rich Muslim-majority nation at the heart of Eurasia, would join the Abraham Accords.
For the White House, it was a symbolic yet strategic victory, breathing new life into one of the first Trump administration’s most significant foreign policy legacies.
Originally launched in 2020 to normalise Israel’s ties with Bahrain, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, and, at least partially, Sudan, the Abraham Accords now stretch beyond the Middle East, carrying Washington’s ambitions into Central Asia.
Kazakhstan’s accession not only reflects a calculated move by Astana to diversify its foreign partnerships by securing a stronger relationship with the United States but also a renewed effort by Washington to expand the Abraham Accords deeper into the Islamic world.
US President Donald J. Trump’s declaration of Kazakhstan’s entry into the Abraham Accords followed a trilateral call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. As the White House proudly put it, this development constituted “a visionary step toward regional peace and prosperity”.
From Washington’s perspective, Kazakhstan’s decision to join the Abraham Accords underscores how the initiative has extended beyond the Middle East, while also reinforcing the narrative that Israel’s normalisation efforts continue to advance despite the genocide in Gaza, which has rendered Tel Aviv increasingly isolated on the international stage since October 2023.
A long-standing partnership: Kazakhstan and Israel
Unlike the Arab states that established relations with Israel in 2020, Kazakhstan had already normalised ties with Tel Aviv long before joining the Abraham Accords this month. Astana formalised its relations with Israel in 1992, just a year after gaining independence. Over the past three decades, this bilateral relationship has remained stable and problem-free.
In the realm of trade and economics, relations between Kazakhstan and Israel have primarily centred on the agricultural, medical, and technology sectors.
For Astana, collaboration with Israel represents opportunities for modernisation and innovation. Tel Aviv, for its part, has long appreciated its close partnership with Kazakhstan - former Israeli ambassador Ran Ishay even described the Central Asian republic as a “country without antisemitism”.
Given that Kazakhstan had normalised relations with Israel decades before this month, its entry into the Abraham Accords is a “politically meaningful and strategically useful, but largely symbolic” development that will come with “targeted practical gains in specific areas such as technology, defence, and critical minerals,” explained Aigerim Turgunbaeva, a Bishkek-based journalist and research fellow at the Turan Center, in an interview with The New Arab.
Astana’s official entry into the Abraham Accords “mainly elevates the visibility of bilateral ties, provides a recognised political framework for new commercial and technological partnerships, and reduces perceived risks for US and Israeli investors operating in Kazakhstan,” she noted, while adding that the Central Asian state’s foreign policy will retain its “multi-vector” nature that avoids placing Astana in alignment with any specific geopolitical bloc.
“The move therefore broadens Kazakhstan’s diplomatic toolkit rather than transforming the nature of its ties with Israel,” stated Turgunbaeva.
Rich Outzen, a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, understands Kazakhstan’s decision to join the Abraham Accords as “symbolic in the bilateral sense but more meaningful in the context of regional alignments and the push for a balanced geopolitical stance”.
He emphasised that entry into the Abraham Accords offers Kazakhstan the means to foster stronger ties with the United States and other Western powers while decreasing Astana’s dependence on Moscow and Beijing.
While sensing that Kazakh-Israeli relations will “continue to build on mutual interests,” Outzen told TNA that the “momentum for closer integration of Central Asia with Western economies will definitely see a boost from this move”.
Who in Central Asia might follow Kazakhstan?
Kazakhstan’s engagement with Israel via the Abraham Accords sets a precedent for its neighbours, prompting analysts to consider which other Central Asian states might follow suit.
Uzbekistan appears to be the most likely candidate. Notably, Uzbekistan established official diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv before any of the other Central Asian republics did. At present, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are the only two Central Asian countries that maintain embassies in Israel. Today, Israel’s relationship with Uzbekistan stands apart from those it holds with the other four Central Asian republics.
Israel’s Bukharan Jewish community plays a central role in shaping Israeli-Uzbek relations. Reflecting on this community’s history, Bruce Pannier, a fellow at the Turan Research Centre and board member of the Caspian Policy Centre, noted that the Bukharan Jewish population in what is now Uzbekistan numbered around 40,000 at the time of the Soviet Union’s implosion.
“The community had been in the Bukhara area for thousands of years. Most have left in the time since Uzbekistan became independent, and there are now possibly less than 1,000 still living in the Bukhara area. Most of those who left went to the United States, but several thousand went to Israel with significant help from the Israeli government,” he noted.
“The Bukharan Jews in Israel and those still remaining in Uzbekistan continue to connect the two countries.”
Pannier believes that Kyrgyzstan would likely join after Uzbekistan. “Kyrgyz-Israeli diplomatic relations also date back to early 1992. Kyrgyzstan’s situation vis-à-vis Israel is similar to Kazakhstan’s in that there’s really nothing to lose in joining the Accords,” he told TNA.
However, the veteran Central Asia watcher does not expect either Tajikistan or Turkmenistan to join the Abraham Accords. He notes that one of the agreement’s key objectives is to isolate Iran, making Tajikistan, which is Central Asia’s most Iran-friendly state and home to a Persian-speaking population, reluctant to participate due to the potential strain it could place on its relationship with Tehran.
Although Iranian-Tajik relations have experienced fluctuations since the 1990s, they are currently quite strong, as evidenced by Iran’s establishment of a drone factory in Tajikistan three years ago.
“Tajikistan also established diplomatic relations with Israel in early 1992, but there is not much common ground between the two countries,” Pannier told TNA.
Although Turkmenistan is one of only three Central Asian states to host an Israeli embassy in its capital, Pannier remains confident that Ashgabat will refrain from joining the Abraham Accords, primarily due to its energy interests and geographic considerations.
“Turkmenistan is almost sure not to sign. Turkmenistan is the only Central Asian republic that has a border with Iran. Turkmenistan has also been trying to work out gas swap deals that would allow sales of ‘Turkmen’ gas to Azerbaijan, Iraq, and Turkey via an arrangement that involves shipping Turkmen gas to Iran and having Iran send a like amount of its gas to those three countries,” he said in a TNA interview.
In any event and regardless of the timing or order of other Central Asian states joining the Abraham Accords, if more ex-Soviet republics follow Astana’s lead, there is, as Turgunbaeva suggested, potential for the Abraham Accords to “evolve into a broader platform for economic and technological cooperation, giving them more practical value than originally envisioned”.
This factor helps one understand why Tel Aviv is optimistic about what can come out of Astana’s entry into the Abraham Accords.
“Israel will look on Kazakhstan’s joining the Accords as a gesture of support, but more importantly, as opening the door for other Central Asian countries to join the Accord,” said Pannier.
Implications for Arab states
While the Abraham Accords were initially meant to facilitate normalisation between Arab states and Israel while strengthening efforts to contain the expansion of Iran’s regional influence, Kazakhstan’s entry “signals a geographic and conceptual expansion of the Accords - from a Middle Eastern peace framework to a global platform for normalisation and dialogue among Muslim-majority countries and Israel,” according to Turgunbaeva.
“Bringing Central Asia into the picture gives the initiative new diplomatic reach and legitimacy, demonstrating that normalisation is no longer limited to the Arab world,” she added.
Nonetheless, the extent to which Astana’s decision to formally join the Abraham Accords will directly influence the broader expansion of Arab-Israeli normalisation remains limited.
As Turgunbaeva observes, “while the move reinforces Washington’s narrative of ‘expanding peace,’ it will not, on its own, revive the stalled path toward Saudi–Israeli normalisation or resolve the Palestinian question”.
As Outzen told TNA, the accession of non-Arab states to the Abraham Accords is likely to have far less influence on the Arab-Israeli normalisation process than the future of the Gaza ceasefire and ongoing efforts to promote stability in the war-torn enclave.
Ultimately, Kazakhstan joined the Abraham Accords not in response to the crises gripping the Middle East, but to advance its own strategic interests. It is reasonable to suggest that Astana was driven more by a desire to strengthen ties with the United States than by its bilateral relationship with Israel.
In seeking to reduce its dependence on Moscow and Beijing, Kazakhstan views closer engagement with Washington and other Western capitals as a means to diversify its international partnerships, while also pursuing the geopolitical and economic advantages that deeper ties with the West provide.
“Kazakhstan joining the Abraham Accords speaks to the notion that Israel has become a currency states use to deal with the US, and not just about relations with Israel,” Dr Aziz Alghashian, a Lecturer of International relations with Naif Arab University of Security Sciences, explained to TNA.
“It enables Israel to seem not diplomatically isolated within the Islamic world, which it has never been…However, the value of the Abraham Accords is to provide momentum and political oxygen to a particular form of normalisation that circumnavigated the Palestinian issue,” the Saudi scholar added.
Strategic significance and the future of normalisation
While Kazakhstan’s accession to the Abraham Accords may be largely symbolic, the significance of symbolism in international relations should not be underestimated.
Looking ahead, Kazakhstan’s formal entry into the Abraham Accords marks a notable step in the evolution of both Central Asian diplomacy and the wider framework of Israeli normalisation.
Although Astana’s relations with Israel have long been established and pragmatic - anchored in technology, agriculture, and innovation - Kazakhstan’s decision to join the Abraham Accords signals a broader geopolitical calculus.
For Astana, the move reinforces its “multi-vector” foreign policy by strengthening ties with Washington and other Western capitals, while maintaining its delicate balance between Moscow, Beijing, and regional partners.
For the United States and Israel, Kazakhstan’s inclusion expands the Abraham Accords’ geographic and conceptual reach, transforming them from a Middle Eastern normalisation initiative into a platform with global aspirations.
Although this development will not alter the core dynamics of Arab-Israeli relations or even begin coming close to resolving the Palestinian question, it does enhance the narrative of a widening circle of engagement between Israel and the Islamic world.
Despite the moral costs of making Kazakhstan’s normalised relationship with a rogue, genocidal state increasingly visible, Astana’s entry into the Abraham Accords will likely generate tangible gains for the oil-rich country across multiple sectors - from critical minerals to defence and technology - while possibly inviting Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to follow suit at some point down the line.
Kazakhstan is leveraging the Abraham Accords not only to engage Israel, but to navigate shifting power structures and secure a more diversified, resilient role in an increasingly multipolar world.
Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics
Follow him on X: @GiorgioCafiero