At the 2025 Manama Dialogue, Oman’s Foreign Minister, Sayyid Badr bin Hamad bin Hamood Albusaidi, offered a strikingly candid assessment of Middle Eastern security.
In his address, Muscat’s top diplomat cautioned against the perils of isolating Iran and described Israel as the “primary source of insecurity in the region through its aggressive actions and escalatory policies”.
His remarks directly challenged the long-standing US and Israeli narrative that casts Iran as the chief architect of regional instability.
While senior officials from other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have been more restrained in expressing this view, it is a sentiment that has quietly gained traction across the Gulf since 7 October 2023.
In the wake of Israel’s missile strike on Doha nearly two months ago, more Gulf Arab diplomats may soon feel compelled to speak openly about their growing perception of Israel as a destabilising force in the Middle East.
Israel's escalation risks
Over the first ten months of US President Donald J. Trump’s second term, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has engaged in regional conduct that increasingly threatens to undermine some of the White House’s own objectives, even as Washington continues to provide Tel Aviv with seemingly unconditional support.
Despite a string of military gains against actors in the Iran-led ‘Axis of Resistance’, Israel’s escalating actions, most notably its attack on Qatar, have alienated both the Trump administration and Gulf Arab monarchies.
Alarmed by Israel’s repeated breaches of regional redlines, GCC members are now intent on persuading Washington that Tel Aviv must be restrained - whether by pressuring it to uphold fragile cease-fires with Hamas and Iran or halting aggression against Lebanon, Qatar, Syria, and Yemen.
Amid shifting dynamics in the Middle East, where GCC members like Saudi Arabia are increasingly seeing Israel not as a partner against Iran but as a growing threat to the Gulf, tensions are rising in Washington between the Gulf lobbies and the long-established pro-Israel lobby.
“The Gulf lobbies have found fertile ground in the Trump administration to plant their seeds of influence, and they are now beginning to reap what they have sown,” Dr Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, told The New Arab.
“They are able to give Trump just what he wants - a highly personalised and yet transactional approach to regional issues; the promise of trade and investment; opportunities to advance his own personal wealth and even the prospect of a Nobel prize,” he added.
“Israel, on the other hand, under Netanyahu, may have served the administration's goal of downsizing Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas, but it now poses more problems for Trump than offers solutions. It is a real turnaround of fortunes and Gulf states are now able to yield far more influence than ever before, though Trump is quick to give with one hand, and then take with the other,” the Chatham House fellow said.
“In other words, the advantage that the Gulf states now have is personal and not institutional, and that means it could also be temporary, rather than a more permanent fixture of DC politics.”
Israel’s attack on Qatar has negatively impacted relations between Washington and Tel Aviv, even if it has not resulted in the White House using the United States’ massive amount of leverage over Israel to pressure Netanyahu’s government into making any fundamental changes in its regional behaviour.
As Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, commented, the strike on Doha has created “an element of lingering distrust” of Israel on the Trump administration’s part.
“Certainly, I think Israel's brazen airstrike on a Major non-NATO Ally won't happen again because of this now existent gap of trust. But I also don’t think that the White House's personal outrage is enough to necessarily dissuade future Israeli covert action against Hamas within Qatar or another major Western ally,” he told TNA.
In Dr Quilliam’s opinion, the Israeli attack on Doha will come to be understood as nothing short of a “pivotal moment” in the American-Israeli relationship.
“The fact that Trump used the moment to force through a ceasefire in Gaza and, like a school principal, he compelled Netanyahu to apologise to Qatari Emir Tamim from the White House in public, shows that the US President's respect for Netanyahu has dropped [precipitously],” he explained.
“There is little doubt that Washington used the occasion to pressure Israel into agreeing to the ceasefire. Moreover, it galvanised Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE to work more closely together in presenting their day after plan to Trump and countering Netanyahu's influence over the White House,” added Dr Quilliam.
Israel's far-right extremism meets Gulf realpolitik
On 23 October, Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich sparked controversy with disparaging remarks about Saudi Arabia, rejecting any normalisation of ties contingent on a Palestinian state. Speaking at a conference, he said, “If Saudi Arabia tells us ‘normalisation in exchange for a Palestinian state,’ friends - no thank you.”
He added provocatively, “Keep riding camels in the desert in Saudi Arabia, and we will continue to develop with the economy, society and state and the great things that we know how to do.”
Smotrich later sought to walk back his statements, posting on X that he regretted the “offence” caused. Yet he maintained his stance on Israel’s broader regional demands, asserting, “I expect the Saudis not to harm us and not to deny the heritage, tradition, and rights of the Jewish people to the historical regions of their homeland in Judea and Samaria [West Bank] and to establish true peace with us.”
These remarks about Saudi Arabia were not only offensive but also deeply revealing of the extremist minister’s ignorance and lack of understanding of regional politics.
Such words reflected a dismissive, condescending attitude toward a key Arab state. Nonetheless, as much as these remarks might offend many in Saudi Arabia, such statements from a high-ranking Israeli official will not determine Riyadh’s approach to the question of Israeli normalisation.
Rather, a complex interplay of strategic, economic, and domestic considerations, including security concerns, public sentiment, and broader geopolitical calculations, will inform Saudi Arabia’s decisions on this front.
Smotrich’s inflammatory words may create friction, but they are unlikely to fundamentally alter Saudi Arabia’s stance against normalisation with Tel Aviv without a Palestinian state being established - or at least Israel’s government taking serious steps to begin the process of such a state coming into existence.
Ultimately, the Saudi leadership is focused on promoting long-term stability in the Middle East, and the formation of a Palestinian state remains central to this agenda.
“The Saudi leadership needs regional stability, so that it can advance towards the goals of Vision 2030 and transform its economy, but now Israel has become a major source of instability in the Middle East, and that factor alone will prevent Riyadh from normalising with Tel Aviv,” Dr Quilliam told TNA.
“I think Smotrich's comments essentially reinforce the status quo that existed under the Netanyahu government. That is, there will be no Saudi-Israeli normalisation in part because of far-right opposition and in part because the far right simply won't countenance the concessions necessary for Palestinian statehood in order to earn diplomatic recognition from Saudi Arabia,” said Bohl in a TNA interview.
Gulf states assert agency amid Israel's destabilisation
The past year has reshaped Middle Eastern dynamics. Gulf states no longer see Israel as a potentially reliable partner. Israeli actions have increasingly clashed with Gulf priorities and sensitivities, forcing GCC members to assert their influence and demand restraint.
At the same time, Washington finds itself navigating an increasingly transactional relationship with Gulf capitals, balancing personal influence and political leverage against the long-standing, institutionalised pro-Israel lobby.
The result is a delicate dance in which GCC states are asserting their agency, leveraging moments of Israeli overreach to press for restraint, all while maintaining their strategic focus on long-term regional stability and security.
Across the Arab world, Israel’s provocations are widely seen as a liability. For Gulf capitals and their allies, long-term stability and regional security outweigh any fleeting gestures or transactional promises from Tel Aviv.
Israel’s path to greater legitimacy in the Gulf is not through borderless aggression in the Arab world. It is through accountability and a genuine commitment to peace.
Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics
Follow him on X: @GiorgioCafiero