Israel is accelerating its annexation of the occupied West Bank

On 29 May, Israel announced the establishment of 22 new settlements in the occupied West Bank - marking the largest expansion of its kind since the 1993 Oslo Accords.

Several of these settlements already exist as outposts, built without government authorisation, but will now gain retroactive approval and be made legal under Israeli law.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz made no attempt to sugarcoat the announcement’s intent, describing it as a “strategic move that prevents the establishment of a Palestinian state that would endanger Israel”.

The announcement was made as France had been advancing the possibility of recognising a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, based on pre-1967 borders.

For many Palestinians in the West Bank, the move is an entrenchment of the reality they have lived under for decades. In the international community’s eyes, Israel has adopted increasingly extreme rhetoric regarding settlements and the two-state framework

Muhannad Ayyash, a policy analyst at Al-Shabaka and Professor of Sociology at Mount Royal University, told The New Arab that the escalation is a continuation of a decades-long Israeli policy to make a Palestinian state impossible, and ultimately impose Israeli sovereignty from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea.

From creeping to impending annexation

Settlement expansion has long been a key facet of Israel’s occupation of the West Bank after it occupied the territory in 1967. Over 700,000 Jewish settlers currently live in the West Bank, although their presence is unequivocally illegal under international law, particularly per Article 49(6) of the Fourth Geneva Convention.

What’s changed is that Israel is becoming more brazen about its goals. On the one hand, far-right ministers such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir - himself a settler - have become more influential, considered to be driving Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Gaza policy.

While extremism has become policy rather than just rhetoric, Israel has also exhibited a degree of nonchalance about the international community’s reaction to the destruction in Gaza.

Expecting no consequences, Israel has intensified its occupation in the West Bank, with analysts warning of impending annexation.

“De facto annexation of the West Bank is already happening, and this has accelerated under the Trump administration. We’re well past the point of ambiguity,” Salman Shaikh, CEO at The Shaikh Group, said in an interview with The New Arab.

“There was once a notion that settlements were a bargaining chip for future negotiations on Palestinian statehood. That’s no longer the case. Nationalists have formed alliances with settlement leaders with the full-term aim of annexing the West Bank. They’re no longer hiding it; they’re just saying the quiet part out loud,” he added.

This overt shift in Israel’s strategy has unfolded alongside growing international legal scrutiny, not just over Gaza but also the West Bank.

In July 2024, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) concluded, in a case initiated in December 2022, that Israel’s occupation of both the West Bank and Gaza is illegal - a finding later endorsed by a UN General Assembly vote.

Still, this legal pressure hasn’t deterred Israel from entrenching its occupation in the West Bank, which rights groups like Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, B’Tselem, South African activists, and even a former member of Mossad, have labelled a system of apartheid.

“Allowing 22 new settlements to be built, including the retroactive so-called legalisation of some outposts is just one more step that Israel is taking to implement its policy towards the Palestinians everywhere, which is ethnic cleansing, and that policy is declared; it’s not a secret,” Nour Odeh, a Palestinian political analyst, told The New Arab.

“These measures poke even more holes in the occupied West Bank. Israel is telling the world: we are a rogue state, this is what we’re going to do, and we do not fear consequences because, well, none have been exacted.”

For decades, the international community, including Israel’s Western partners, have championed the notion of a two-state solution per the pre-1967 borders. Yet critics have labelled these plans as disingenuous, partly given the lack of efforts to rein in Israeli officials who have encouraged settlement expansion, and officially recognise a Palestinian state.

This impunity has also led to Israeli ministers becoming increasingly brazen about the government’s plans to force Palestinians not only out of Gaza but also the West Bank.

Daniel Levy, former Israeli negotiator and President of the US/Middle East Project (USMEP), told The New Arab that the announcement to expand 22 settlements follows the “open acknowledgement by the Israeli government regarding Gaza and the West Bank that the publicly stated policy is a second Nakba and ethnic cleansing,” evident in the establishment of the Directorate for the Voluntary Emigration of Gaza Residents and its creation in March 2025.

“There is nothing voluntary about moving people when you have made their conditions of life unliveable.”

Israel has upped its military force in the West Bank, employing tactics previously confined to Gaza. Notably, in January 2025, Israeli forces launched a campaign labelled Operation Iron Wall, seizing full military control over refugee camps in Jenin, Nur Shams, and Tulkarem where armed groups have operated.

This brutal campaign - involving airstrikes, attack helicopters, and tanks - marked the most intense military escalation in the West Bank since 1967, displacing more than 40,000 Palestinians.

More broadly in the West Bank, thousands have been killed or injured since October 2023, and over 17,000 detained - with many subjected to home demolitions and forced evictions.

“For those living in the immediate vicinity of the settlers, we can expect increased and more brazen settler violence, including physical attacks on Palestinians, the burning of their olive trees, fields, and taking over their homes. The limitation of movement for Palestinians will become even more restricted than it already is,” Al-Shabaka analyst Ayyash told TNA.

He also warned that Israel will push for the long-term goal of making the lives of Palestinians even harder, until they are forced to leave.

Shifting public opinion

On the surface, Israel’s announcement to expand West Bank settlements is another step in damaging its international image, exacerbated by its expanding occupation of the besieged Gaza Strip.

The latest incident came on 1 June, when Israel blocked foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Jordan, and Egypt from attending a scheduled meeting in Ramallah to meet the Palestinian Authority (PA) to discuss Palestinian statehood.

Saudi Arabia condemned Israel’s move as “extremism and rejection of peace,” showing a growing rift that further buries normalisation talks between Riyadh and Tel Aviv.

It also reflects how Israel, recently, has become somewhat of a political outsider in the Middle East in terms of US policy, with US President Donald Trump visiting Arab Gulf states, striking a deal with the Houthis, lifting sanctions on Syria, and re-engaging in nuclear enrichment talks with Iran - Tel Aviv’s regional nemesis - despite Israel’s protests.

Crucially, pressure is growing in the West, largely driven by shifting public opinion. A YouGov poll published on 3 June showed net favourability toward Israel reaching historic lows - between -44 and -56 - across major European countries, including Germany, the UK, France, Italy, and Spain.

In response, some European governments have further adjusted their tone. The UK condemned the settlement expansion announcement, and along with France and Canada has threatened sanctions.

Israel’s staunch allies like Germany have increased their criticism of Israel’s actions, while Spain, Ireland, and Norway have reduced their trade ties.

Moreover, on 2 June, the Financial Times editorial board called for EU sanctions on Israel, including targeting institutions such as the Bank of Israel, which invests around a quarter of its reserves in Europe.

For now, Western arms continue to flow to Israel, and trade reductions remain minimal. Many observers warn that while criticism may increase, meaningful repercussions for Israel’s actions will remain limited.

“The fact is, European public opinion is exactly where it should be - demanding accountability from Israel. The issue isn't a lack of public pressure; it's that these governments are deeply invested in supporting Israel through arms deals, defence contracts, and in protecting the settler-colonial project that has benefited from decades of exceptionalism,” said Nour Odeh.

Sanctions or continued inaction?

Ultimately, the ongoing discussions among European states over recognising Palestine may irk Israel. But without action, they won’t be enough to change the reality on the ground.

“The degree of extremity of this policy is leading to a mood shift among many of Israel's Western and primarily European allies,” said Daniel Levy.

However, he added that “Israel's leadership is betting on Europe remaining in the comfort zone of rhetoric, not action - unfortunately, that is a reasonable bet, recognition of a Palestinian state is symbolic, not consequential. And sadly, the co-opted Palestinian leadership in Ramallah [the PA] is part of this game of Potemkin pressure.”

The PA, dependent on Western and Israeli funding, has faced waning credibility in the eyes of Palestinians, in part due to its perceived compliance with Israel’s occupation, as its security forces have jointly cracked down on armed Palestinian groups in the occupied West Bank.

“All this really tells us is that public mobilisation must expand and intensify,” said Levy.

Meanwhile, Salman Shaikh also called for holding those responsible for settlement expansion accountable, including members of the Israeli government. He also warned that Western powers ignoring the impending annexation are “criminally negligent,” adding arms embargoes and sanctions must be coupled with recognition of Palestine to uphold international law.

If European states proceed with recognising Palestine at an upcoming UN conference on 17 June, it will increase pressure on Israel.

But without concrete follow-up measures, such recognition risks being symbolic. In the absence of real consequences, Israel is likely to press ahead at full speed with its long-term annexation agenda.

Jonathan Fenton-Harvey is a journalist and researcher who focuses on conflict, geopolitics, and humanitarian issues in the Middle East and North Africa.

Follow him on Twitter: @jfentonharvey