In April, US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs as part of his broader push to overhaul a global trading system he claims treats the United States unfairly and address America’s trade deficit.
Since then, many countries have been rushing to negotiate trade deals with Washington to reduce the latest tariff adjustments.
As Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs took effect against dozens of nations on 7 August, trading partners in the Middle East and North Africa have also been hit by the extensive duties.
Tariff shockwaves in the Middle East
Syria was slapped with one of the heaviest tariff rates, 41 percent, the same rate declared in April. At the end of June, Trump formally ordered the lifting of all sanctions on the war-torn country. Syria maintains minimal trade with the US due to its longstanding sanctions, though limited commerce between the two still exists.
Iraq followed with a 35 percent rate adjusted down from 39 percent in the April announcement. US-Iraq trade remains substantial, totalling $9.1 billion in 2024, including $7.4 billion in US imports.
Libya was given a 30 percent tariff, just below the 31 percent rate initially stated, with $1.5 billion of its $2 billion US trade being oil exports, while Algeria’s 30 percent tariff, unchanged from the initial April rate, was formalised. The customs duty targets a trade partnership worth $3.5 billion, made up entirely of Algerian exports to the US.
Tunisia secured a more favourable rate, with its levy lowered to 25 percent from the 28 percent announced in April, and Jordan was levied a 15 percent fee, reduced from 20 percent in April. Its significant trade relationship with the US amounted to $5.4 billion last year, of which $3.4 billion were US imports from Jordan.
Neil Quilliam, a foreign affairs specialist focusing on MENA, told The New Arab that even regional countries with relatively small trade volumes affected by US tariffs will feel “pushed” to seek alternative export markets, potentially turning to Europe or Asia.
Israel was also included, with its rate dropped slightly to 15 percent from the 17 percent announced earlier this year.
Egypt, with a baseline 10 percent tariff, ranks among the countries with the lowest tariffs in the list unveiled by Trump. Its exports to the US remain unaffected by the new measures, with the low rate seen in Egypt as a strong incentive to boost trade.
US-Egypt trade totalled $8.6 billion in 2024, with Egyptian exports worth $2.5 billion and US exports to Egypt reaching $6.1 billion, leaving the balance heavily in Washington’s favour.
Economists say Egypt’s low tariffs offer a rare chance to attract investment from countries facing steep US duties, particularly Asian states like China, hit with 30% levies.
China is one of Egypt’s top trade and investment partners, with bilateral trade hovering around $14 billion annually and Chinese business ventures on the rise, especially in the Suez Canal Economic Zone.
Talking to The New Arab, David Butter, an analyst of politics, economics and business in the MENA region, observed an uptick of Chinese ventures in Egypt’s textile and clothing sector in recent months.
He said that the Arab country is also becoming a magnet for investment from states hit hardest by Trump’s tariffs, which are now looking for new bases to reach the US market. “There is interest from countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh that have long served as platforms for Chinese exports to the US,” the economic analyst noted.
He added that Morocco, a major exporter of phosphate fertilisers to the United States, may be affected by the tariffs as tight supplies of the crop nutrients are driving prices higher globally.
Talking to TNA, Gregory Brew, an analyst with Eurasia Group focusing on the geopolitics of energy, specified that while the newly revealed levies are a little more disruptive for economically fragile Arab nations, other bilateral issues matter more to states like Egypt and Jordan, namely “aid” and “security cooperation”.
However, tariffs could pose a bigger challenge to Israel, which relies more heavily on trade with the US, with Trump aiming to close its trade deficit with its longstanding ally.
Oil, aid, and an eastward turn
The remaining MENA countries, notably the Gulf states, which enjoy trade surpluses with the United States, are subject to the baseline 10 percent. The minimum levy was imposed on them in April, marking the lowest tier of customs duties set by the US president.
Much of Gulf exports to the US, especially energy products like crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), are exempt from Trump’s tariffs. Other sectors such as electronics, machinery, pharmaceuticals, metals, and chemicals, also have partial or full exemptions, limiting the direct impact.
With the US accounting for only 3.7% of GCC exports in 2024, it remains a minor market for the region. Yet, duties on steel and aluminium, key exports for the UAE and Bahrain, could strain their industrial sectors.
“I don’t see the tariffs as a threat to commercial ties between GCC leaders and the Trump administration or the US overall,” Brew affirmed.
The geopolitical expert remarked that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar remain committed to strengthening economic ties with the US, with plans to boost bilateral investments in sectors like chip manufacturing and AI and deepening their cooperation in defence and security.
Although Gulf economies may benefit from protected exports and trade surpluses, they still face risks from global demand shifts and energy market volatility, potentially leading to lower oil prices and falling profits.
At the same time, already vulnerable Middle Eastern and North African states may be further burdened by economic pressure from higher import costs, inflation, and sluggish growth prospects.
The Eurasia Group’s analyst Gregory Brew acknowledged that the macro effects of US tariffs could hinder global economic growth and drive down oil demand and prices, thus hurting Arab countries reliant on oil exports. “Tariffs on MENA states pose no prohibitive risk to ongoing US trade. They may slow it, but not shut it down entirely,” he said.
A key question is how US secondary tariffs will affect trade after Trump threatened 100 percent levies on countries buying Russian goods to pressure its trade partners into reducing Moscow’s export revenues, namely from energy. Russia is, to date, the world's third biggest oil producer, behind just Saudi Arabia and the United States.
China, the largest consumer of Moscow’s exports, would be hit hardest by such tariffs, but ongoing trade talks with Washington have paused the tariff war between the two.
India, a big buyer of Russian crude since 2022, has become the first country to be punished by the US over its oil purchases from Moscow, with an extra 25 percent tariff raising its total import duties to 50 percent from 27 August.
If effective, the levies could curb Russia’s oil and gas exports, resulting in a squeezed supply on the global market and prices going up, much like after the 2022 Russia invasion of Ukraine, which sparked worldwide inflation.
Quilliam, who’s also an associate fellow at London-based think tank Chatham House, believes Trump's move offers India a chance to reconsider its strategic ties away from Russia and pivot toward the Gulf. "If the US tariffs on India take effect, Saudi Arabia and the UAE could be key beneficiaries,” the MENA specialist anticipated.
In his view, Trump’s unpredictability and high, fluctuating tariffs make it essential for regional countries to diversify markets and decrease reliance on US trade.
“We’re witnessing a long-term reengineering of the global economy that will reshape how decision-makers and businesses in the region perceive the US market,” he said.
The foreign policy fellow maintained that Trump’s policies could accelerate MENA countries’ building of trade corridors with other potential partners to include China, India, Gulf countries, and even the EU.
Quilliam stressed that this reflects a whole shift in the perception of the United States across the Arab world. “As the US pivots away and loses its position as a unipolar power, regional leaders are losing confidence in the role it can play in the region,” he said.
Brews thinks Trump’s economic policies will hamper America’s trade relations around the world, but doubts they will sever its commercial ties entirely in the short term. “Trade with the US will remain durable since these tariffs don’t meet the threshold needed to completely disrupt it,” he said.
Tariffs are likely to put indirect pressure on MENA countries, worsening economic insecurity for the most vulnerable by reducing export competitiveness, raising consumer prices, and worsening unemployment in affected industries.
Butter said that there are many unknowns in how these tariff policies will play out regionally or even globally, but that in autocratic contexts, indirect effects such as energy price volatility, trade diversion from tariffed markets, and inflationary pressures could trigger social and political upheaval.
“Present socio-economic woes would be exacerbated, straining living standards, and increasing the vulnerability of these regimes to instability.”
Alessandra Bajec is a freelance journalist currently based in Tunis
Follow her on Twitter: @AlessandraBajec