How Israel is reshaping its eastern front along Jordan with security barrier and settlements

Israel is pressing ahead with plans to establish about 40 new illegal settlement outposts along its eastern frontier with Jordan, in addition to a planned 500km (310-mile) barrier and an expanding military and civilian presence in the occupied Jordan Valley.

The developments have prompted warnings from Jordanian analysts that Israel's settlement expansion could create a new security reality along the kingdom's western frontier and put further pressure on Palestinian land and resources.

Jordanian military analyst Jalal al-Abbadi told The New Arab that Israel was continuing its settlement expansion across different border areas, including Lebanon, the occupied West Bank and Gaza.

He said the recent increase in illegal settlement outposts, particularly in central and northern areas, involved armed extremists who effectively reinforce Israeli forces and serve as a first line of defence.

Al-Abbadi said the geographical distribution of the outposts could eventually create a security belt, although "even now it cannot be described as a security belt or a complete buffer zone".

He warned that the outposts could attract extremists and people from abroad and contribute to the displacement of local residents living nearby.

Jordanian expert on Israeli affairs Ayman al-Haniti said Israel's mine clearance operations and construction of the barrier indicated an effort to establish a "human barrier" along the frontier.

He said this could consist of settlements, training camps and military bases.

The border between Jordan and Israel extends for more than 300km, he said, warning that the establishment of farms and more than 40 settlements could put pressure on groundwater and other resources.

"Jordan will be deprived of the resources located along the border strip," he remarked.

A 500km barrier

The settlement expansion is being pursued alongside construction of a security barrier planned to eventually stretch around 500km, from the occupied Syrian Golan Heights to the area north of Eilat.

Initial sections of the project began construction in 2025, with the first phase covering around 80km. The wider project includes physical barriers, surveillance equipment, radars, cameras, communications systems and roads, while mine clearance has taken place along parts of the planned route.

But the project is not simply being built along Israel's internationally recognised border with Jordan.

Parts of the barrier run several kilometres inside the occupied West Bank, cutting across the northern Jordan Valley and separating Palestinian communities from farmland.

The "Crimson Thread" section, in particular, has involved the excavation of Palestinian land and destruction of agricultural infrastructure.

The project has damaged irrigation pipes, farmland and greenhouses and separated farmers from land on the other side of the barrier. Its route was established through nine Israeli land-seizure orders, while Palestinian residents have faced increasing restrictions on their movement as construction advances.

A wider settlement project

The barrier forms part of a broader expansion of Israel's illegal settlement project in the occupied West Bank.

Around 40 new Nahal settlement groups are planned along the eastern border, while agricultural farms are also being established in the area.

The settlement plans come as Israeli settlers expand outposts, farms, roads and fencing elsewhere across the occupied West Bank, further increasing Israeli civilian presence on Palestinian land.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich recently announced the demolition of 35 Palestinian buildings along access routes to new settlements in the northern West Bank, linking the move to strengthening and protecting Israeli settlements.

Although the demolitions are not directly connected to the Jordanian border, they form part of the wider expansion of Israel's settlement presence across the occupied territory.

What does it mean for Jordan?

Jordanian political analyst Amer al-Sabaileh said Israeli activity along the eastern border had intensified after Israel raised concerns about weapons and people being smuggled across the frontier and infiltration.

Israel has conducted military exercises around the border and introduced additional barriers and security measures since 7 October 2023, he said.

"Israel is applying the same security logic it had used in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria to Jordan, seeking to prevent potential attacks and infiltration," he said.

"Israel was working, according to its security doctrine, to redraw the geography of the area in line with its security requirements," he added.

Al-Abbadi said a military confrontation between Jordan and Israel was currently unlikely, with no indications that either side was seeking direct conflict.

"There is no room today to open more conflicts," he said, adding that Jordan remained committed to the two-state solution.

He said Jordan was maintaining its borders and relying on diplomatic efforts to prevent further Israeli settlement expansion, particularly in border areas.

The Jordan Valley's importance as a food-producing area also meant the Israeli moves had economic as well as security implications for Jordan, he added.

The developments along the border would require a degree of coordination, al-Sabaileh said, while Jordan did not want any breach of its territory or smuggling and infiltration across the frontier.