How Israel's Beirut strikes underscore its 'new rules of the game' for Lebanon

Beirut, Lebanon - On 28 March, an evacuation warning from the Israeli army sent Beirut’s southern suburbs into panic. Residents rushed to leave the densely populated neighbourhood by car or on foot, jamming the small roads. 

Hours later, two large explosions rang throughout the Lebanese capital, provoking painful memories of Israel’s months-long bombing campaign, when its jets pounded the city.

While Israel has continued to strike south Lebanon, the attack on Beirut was the first since a fragile ceasefire deal took hold on 27 November. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it was a response to the barrage of rockets fired from Lebanon at the Israeli northern border town of Kiryat Shmona earlier that day, the second such incident in less than a week. Hezbollah denied responsibility for the rocket fire, and no other group has claimed responsibility. 

“We will not allow firing on our communities, not even a trickle,” the Israeli premier stated. 

Then, before the sun rose on 1 April, Israel hit southern Beirut again, wiping out two floors of an apartment building without warning and killing four people, including a Hezbollah official and three others. 

“These are the new rules of the game. The Israeli response is no longer limited to south Lebanon,” Randa Slim, a fellow with Johns Hopkins Foreign Policy Institute, told The New Arab. 

“Anytime there is an attack on Israel, they’re going to respond forcefully inside Lebanon, and inside Beirut, by targeting key people in Hezbollah and Hamas,” she said.

“Israel’s message in all of its actions - but especially in Beirut - is that it has decided it wants a new security reality in the north,” Mairav Zonszein, the senior Israel analyst for the International Crisis Group (ICG), told TNA.

“It’s going to use a lot of force to make it clear that it’s not going to tolerate any kind of fire,” she said. “And that’s how it’s holding the ceasefire - as far as it sees it.” 

War 'waged unilaterally' by Israel 

The ceasefire builds on the terms of UN Resolution 1701, mandating UNIFIL and the Lebanese army as the exclusive armed presence south of Lebanon’s Litani River.

Israel said it would “aggressively respond” to a breach of any terms, and since the ceasefire took hold, has been carrying out regular strikes in the south, which have killed over 120 people and injured more than 366.

“I don’t think the war is finished, it's being waged unilaterally by Israel,” Slim said, referencing Israel’s continued occupation of five points in south Lebanon and the liberty with which they have been carrying out attacks.

On Friday, 4 April, an Israeli strike on a residential building in Saida killed a senior Hamas commander, along with his son and daughter. The Israeli army said the commander was responsible for a rocket attack against a military base in Safed city in northern Israel, which killed an Israeli soldier and wounded others on 14 February.

Israel has also launched a series of strikes on the country last week, which on Monday killed three people. Israel’s military said it had “eliminated” a Hezbollah commander for the Taybeh area (southern Lebanon). Two Syrians and another citizen were also killed in a separate strike the same day. 

On Tuesday night, the Israeli army struck what it said was one of Hezbollah’s weapons storage facilities in the eastern Baalbek district. On Wednesday, an Israeli helicopter fired two missiles on homes in the Bint Jbeil district, and on Thursday, an Israeli drone strike targeted an excavator in Aita al-Shaab, both strikes near the southern border.

This week, on Tuesday, an Israeli airstrike targeted a van in the border village of Aitaroun, killing one person and injuring three others. 

“The Israelis are basically pounding whoever they want, whenever they want, on any given day,” Nicholas Blanford, a Beirut-based Hezbollah expert with the Atlantic Council, told TNA. “And there’s nothing Hezbollah can do about it. They’re just absorbing the blows.” 

“Hezbollah has been severely degraded by the war, its deterrence has been shattered, and now the Israelis are in the mood for much larger changes,” Blanford said. 

Hezbollah in 'internal disarray'

Hezbollah has taken a massive hit after its months-long pummelling by Israel and then the fall of its ally, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, in December.

Reuters reported that the group has lost several thousand fighters, and the Israeli military claims to have destroyed 70 to 80% of its arsenal with a range of up to 40 kilometres. Furthermore, Hezbollah’s top leadership - notably its figurehead, Hassan Nasrallah - was wiped out.

Blanford said these setbacks, and Israel’s apparent “upper hand” in the ceasefire, might stir discontent within the group. “It wouldn't surprise me if going down the road, there may be some indications of dissent within the ranks - and maybe it’s already started,” he said.   

“[Hezbollah] right now is in internal disarray,” Slim, the Johns Hopkins fellow, commented.

“The one political leader who could mediate any kind of differences inside the party – who could impose a final decision on everybody and be accepted – was Nasrallah, who is gone,” she said, noting that Hezbollah’s new secretary general, Naim Qassem, “has not been able to fill Nasrallah’s shoes, whatsoever”.  

“So, in any large organisation like Hezbollah, differences of opinion emerge, splits happen, and in the absence of somebody who can mediate those differences of opinion, these splits can take on a military form, a violent form,” Slim added.

'Rogue elements within Hezbollah'

David Wood, the International Crisis Group’s senior Lebanon analyst, suggested the rocket fire towards Israel on 28 March could have been from “rogue elements within Hezbollah”, who “fired these rockets out of frustration”.

“They might see what’s happening in southern Lebanon - where daily airstrikes are being carried out - as not significantly better than a full-scale war,” he continued. “People who are very frustrated, very disgruntled, and very angry, might have decided to take matters into their own hands.” 

Two days after the rocket fire, the Lebanese army arrested several individuals suspected of involvement in the fire. However, the army did not disclose the group’s affiliation.

Wood accused Israel of not giving the Lebanese army enough time to investigate the perpetrators of the attack, before “forcing an airstrike on the capital city of Lebanon”. 

“If Israel wants the ceasefire to work, it should give the Lebanese army the time it needs to conduct investigations and try to make sure the trouble doesn’t start up again in the south, rather than carrying out these punitive attacks in other parts of Lebanon, including the capital, as a way of creating pressure,” he said. 

“The Lebanese army already feels the pressure,” he added.  

Furthermore, Wood said that if Israel continues to carry out strikes on Shia-majority areas in the country, where Hezbollah derives its support base, “it’s going to create even more hardship and dissatisfaction among the party’s supporters, who are struggling to rebuild their houses and communities in the wake of the war”. 

Hezbollah signals readiness to disarm 

The Lebanese army has been charged with overseeing Hezbollah’s disarmament, a politically sensitive task that could trigger backlash if not approached delicately. 

However, Hezbollah has recently signalled its readiness to disarm, conditional on confronting the Israeli aggression and liberating occupied Lebanese territory.

On Thursday, 10 April, MP Hassan Fadlallah of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc Loyalty to the Resistance said: “Our priority now is to confront aggression and liberate our land. We are ready and willing to engage in any dialogue over a national defence strategy - this is not a new position.”

Kassem Kassir, a political analyst close to Hezbollah, told TNA that “the party currently affirm that it stands behind the Lebanese state and army and is giving the opportunity for negotiations and diplomatic solutions”. 

A senior Hezbollah official also told Reuters on Thursday that the group is ready to hold talks with the Lebanese president about its weapons if Israel withdraws from south Lebanon and stops its strikes. 

“It's clearly still difficult for the Lebanese army to enforce full sovereignty over what’s happening in southern Lebanon, also because Israel hasn’t ended its occupation in parts of southern Lebanon,” Wood stated. 

However, ICG’s Israel analyst, Zonszein, suspected that “Israel has every intention of staying [in south Lebanon] for the foreseeable future”, which it could “use as leverage later on” if it entered negotiations. 

Resistance is 'Hezbollah's beating heart'

Blanford, the Hezbollah expert, said Hezbollah might attempt to “leverage political gains” on the terms of disarmament. These could include asking for a greater number of seats in parliament or requesting the army commander be a Shia Muslim - demands Lebanon’s Christian politicians would “baulk at”.

The Lebanese government is based on a delicate sectarian power-sharing system, where the president must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker a Shia Muslim. 

Some have also suggested that Hezbollah fold into the Lebanese army. “[The group] would come under state control, perhaps as something like a ‘Southern Border Protection Force’,” Blanford said, but noted that while it would keep some of Hezbollah’s cadres employed, it would effectively mean the end to the group. 

“If Hezbollah disarms, then frankly it’s no longer Hezbollah,” Blanford said, “At the end of the day, Hezbollah is a jihadist organisation and the resistance is its beating heart, its raison d’être.” 

Without its arms, Blanford said Hezbollah would be left as “a hollowed-out Islamist political party, which may no longer have funding from Iran, and would struggle to maintain their massive social welfare apparatus, which could then have an impact on their domestic popularity within the Shia community.”  

More realistically, Blanford said Hezbollah may retain its light weaponry, under the control of the Lebanese army and state. 

“This might be something the Israelis can live with,” he continued. “When you get away from the rhetoric, the main issue for the Israelis is Hezbollah’s long-range weaponry and its precision-guided missiles - the stuff that can do real damage to targets deep inside Israel and poses a direct threat to border communities.”

As for the Israeli attacks on Lebanon, Blanford said they would likely continue. “Nobody’s stopping [the Israelis], not the international community, not the ceasefire monitoring group, and not Hezbollah,” he stated. 

Hanna Davis is a freelance journalist reporting on politics, foreign policy, and humanitarian affairs.

Follow her on Twitter: @hannadavis341