Hamas in Israel's crosshairs: Caught between resistance and political survival

In the crucible of an unrelenting Israeli war, Hamas finds itself navigating one of the most challenging chapters in its history.

As Israel openly seeks to eliminate the movement and reconfigure Gaza's political and security landscape, Hamas is responding with a dual strategy: armed resistance and diplomatic manoeuvring, according to Palestinian political experts.

This balancing act aims to preserve its military capabilities while securing its place in any future Palestinian political arrangement.

Since 7 October 2023, Israel has made clear its intent to dismantle Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior military leaders have declared that their objective extends far beyond a tactical response.

What is unfolding is a systematic effort to erase Hamas's presence and reshape Gaza's governance in Israel's favour.

Hamas, in turn, has recognised that this objective is not merely a retaliation for the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, which resulted in the deaths of 1,200 Israelis and the capture of 250 others, but part of a larger Israeli agenda to sideline it politically and socially.

As Khalil al-Hayya, head of the political bureau of Hamas, has asserted, the resistance remains unbroken, and Israel will fail in erasing Gaza's national identity.

These declarations are more than rhetorical. They serve as strategic messaging aimed at multiple audiences, reaffirming popular support internally while signalling to regional and international players that any resolution must involve Hamas.

Despite facing devastating military pressure, Hamas has continued indirect negotiations under Egyptian, Qatari, and US mediation.

Contrary to Israeli accusations of intransigence, Hamas insists its engagement aims to secure a permanent ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and guarantees for its political and social continuity.

Speaking to The New Arab, Gazan political analyst Reham Odeh said that Hamas sees the truce talks as a means to reshape the political balance, preventing Israel from unilaterally dictating terms.

"The movement knows that negotiations are being used as leverage, but it is also using the evolving battlefield to strengthen its position in any future arrangement," Odeh added.

This approach is evident in Hamas's selective openness to proposals. The movement has shown flexibility regarding a long-term ceasefire and even floated a prisoner exchange.

However, it categorically rejects disarmament or any deal of political capitulation.

"We are not negotiating our surrender. We are open to any proposal that ends the aggression and lifts the siege, but our right to resist is non-negotiable," a senior Hamas official, who preferred to remain anonymous, told TNA.

Proposals involving a technocratic government or a broader role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza's reconstruction have been met with Hamas’s insistence on guarantees, namely, protection for its leadership and the preservation of its military role.

These conditions were rejected not only by Israel but also by the Palestinian Authority, which demands that Hamas disarm as a prerequisite for unity.

Fatah and the PA: Conditional involvement

For its part, the Palestinian Authority views the current moment as an opportunity to reassert its legitimacy in Gaza, if Hamas is excluded militarily.

PA officials have repeatedly emphasised that any post-war governance framework must fall under the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) umbrella, with President Mahmoud Abbas retaining executive authority.

In comments to Al-Arabiya, Hussein al-Sheikh, the vice president of the Palestinian Authority, declared that the PA is prepared to assume administrative responsibilities in Gaza, but only within a unified Palestinian system.

"There can be no return to the status quo ante," he said. "Hamas must not be allowed to maintain a parallel authority or armed wing. A single authority, a single law, and a single gun."

Fatah leaders echo this position. A senior Fatah official, who wished to remain unnamed, told The New Arab that the movement views Hamas's current political manoeuvring as a continuation of its unilateralism.

"Hamas must make a strategic decision: is it part of the national project or an obstacle to it?" he asked. "The PA is not a service provider to cover Hamas's military agenda."

However, the PA's credibility is increasingly under strain, particularly in Gaza. Many Palestinians remain sceptical of Ramallah's ability or willingness to represent the broader Palestinian national interest genuinely.

Critics cite years of authoritarian governance, security coordination with Israel, and the marginalisation of democratic processes as reasons the PA is not universally regarded as a legitimate alternative.

Political analyst Abdel Majid Sweilem suggests that the PA's insistence on preconditions, namely Hamas's disarmament, may be unrealistic.

"You cannot demand surrender from a movement that still holds ground and maintains significant popular support," he told TNA. "If the PA truly wants unity, it must offer a framework for integration, not exclusion."

Sweilem also warns that any arrangement imposed from above, particularly under US or Israeli pressure, risks igniting a new round of internal Palestinian strife.

"People will reject puppet administration in Gaza. They want governance reflecting their resilience, suffering, and voice," he said.

The struggle within

This internal Palestinian division complicates the post-war vision for Gaza. While regional powers like Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia have reportedly discussed the idea of an Arab peacekeeping force or interim administration, there is no consensus on who should lead Gaza after the guns fall silent.

Esmat Mansour argues that Hamas's actions are deliberate, reflecting a long-term vision.

"Israel aims to erode Hamas militarily and politically, but this is risky. Hamas is not just a military faction; it's a deeply entrenched political movement with vast grassroots support, particularly in Gaza," he told TNA.

Mansour emphasises that Hamas is strategically prolonging the war to strengthen its bargaining position.

"Each day without a decisive Israeli victory increases Hamas's leverage. Small tactical wins - ambushes, rocket fire - serve to improve its posture in future negotiations. Hamas understands that shaping the endgame is more important than surviving each round of bombing."

Ahmed Rafiq Awad, a media professor at Al-Quds University, sees Hamas's strategy as a textbook case of long-term crisis management.

"The movement knows that any sustainable truce must go through it. By maintaining its relevance, Hamas is positioning itself as an indispensable actor in any post-war arrangement - whether in Gaza or the broader Palestinian political framework."

Awad believes that Israeli efforts to empower the PA or establish alternative local leadership without engaging Hamas could backfire.

"Excluding Hamas would strip any political solution of legitimacy in Gaza. That's precisely what Hamas underlines through its persistence both on the battlefield and at the negotiation table," he said.

On the ground: Pain, division, and endurance

Meanwhile, the Gaza Strip is enduring its darkest chapter. Nearly 19 months into the war, over 50,000 Palestinians have perished, the entire territory lies in ruins, and humanitarian conditions are catastrophic. Public opinion is deeply divided.

Among the displaced, some view Hamas as a bulwark against occupation. Umm Mohammed Samour, uprooted from Shujaiyya, now lives in a displacement camp in Gaza City.

"Hamas is Gaza's last line of defence," she told TNA. "Despite everything, they've stood firm. If they fall, who will stand for us?"

Others, however, voice frustration. Mahmoud Abu Sharar, a former civil servant in Gaza City, decries what he sees as Hamas's prioritisation of political survival over public welfare.

"Nineteen months of hell, we still see no clear path forward. People are starving, homes are gone, and the leadership seems detached from our reality," he complained to TNA.

Ahmed Abu Akar, a young Palestinian from Khan Younis in the south of Gaza, offers a more nuanced take, saying, "I support resistance, but we need smart resistance. Rockets alone won't solve our problems. We need strategies that preserve lives and futures".

Laila Abu Ermana, a schoolteacher in Khan Yunis, urges Hamas to listen more. "We want peace, not endless conflict. Hamas needs to rethink its path and hear the voices of the people it claims to represent," she told TNA.

These sentiments paint a picture of a society grappling with immense trauma, searching for both justice and stability. While Hamas retains significant support, especially among those who equate resistance with dignity, it also faces criticism for a perceived disconnect from humanitarian needs.

Hamas's refusal to accept an unconditional truce reflects its belief that Israel's true aim is not merely ending the fighting but erasing the movement altogether. Therefore, it insists on a full ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal, and lifting the blockade conditions it sees as essential to preserving its existence and influence.

Despite its resilience, Hamas faces growing international isolation. It is excluded from high-level diplomatic talks, while Western officials who visit the region avoid meeting its representatives. In turn, Israel enjoys open support from major global powers.

This political marginalisation adds another layer to Hamas's dilemma. Besieged militarily and diplomatically, and viewed warily by regional actors, the movement is fighting on multiple fronts. Yet, it persists in carrying out ambushes, launching rockets, and engaging in high-risk negotiations on the Gaza Strip.

The stakes are immense. According to recent reports, Israel now controls over 77% of the Gaza Strip. This territorial reality threatens to upend Hamas’s administrative grip and challenges its ability to operate militarily. However, it also raises a question: can Hamas convert this battlefield adversity into a political opportunity?

Hani al-Masri, a Ramallah-based Palestinian political analyst, believed much depends on what happens next.

"Will the movement succeed in leveraging its resistance credentials to secure a role in a new Palestinian political arrangement? Or will post-war Gaza be shaped without it, under the aegis of regional actors and the PA?" he told TNA.

"As the war grinds on," he says, "Hamas remains the most consequential variable in Gaza's future. Whether seen as a resistance symbol, a political burden, or a necessary actor, the movement's fate is intimately tied to the broader Palestinian question and to the world's willingness to imagine a post-war Gaza that reflects the will of its people".

He stressed that only a genuine Palestinian national reconciliation, bringing together Hamas, Fatah, and all other factions, can rescue the broader Palestinian cause, and the Gaza Strip in particular, from deepening fragmentation and despair.

Such unity, he argued, is the only path towards restoring a semblance of life for a population trapped in an unrelenting war.

Yet, he voiced deep concern that "neither Hamas nor Fatah appear to possess the will or capacity to reconcile even after enduring months of genocidal war".

Sally Ibrahim is a Palestinian reporter with The New Arab based in the Gaza Strip