Gaza's roadmap to nowhere: Why Israel won't give up control

Israel was caught by surprise when Hamas agreed at the end of July to decommission its weapons in Gaza in lockstep with the Israeli army’s withdrawal from the enclave.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has even referred to the acceptance of the Board of Peace’s roadmap by Palestinian factions as a “diplomatic 7 October”.

For months, Israel has made disarmament in Gaza its sole pretext for its continued genocide in the enclave and systematic violations of the October 2025 ceasefire.

“If only Hamas were to lay down its arms, all of this would be over” has been Israel’s standard talking point to justify killing over 1,200 Palestinians in the past 320 days of supposed calm, as well as restricting aid and movement, banning reconstruction, and advancing the “Yellow line” of ethnically cleansed areas.

Yet, as soon as Hamas and seven other Palestinian factions agreed to Tel Aviv’s demand, the Israeli government went into panic mode. Netanyahu rushed to formally reject the roadmap while his ministers called it “dangerous for Israel” and vowed to continue daily killings and ethnic cleansing.

The Israeli army, meanwhile, has escalated its bombing campaign in Gaza.

Even after the Board of Peace tried to provide ample assurances to Israel that it could continue to bomb Gaza, occupy 70% of Gaza’s territory, and only withdraw after Hamas’s total disarmament, Netanyahu has continued to reject the deal.

“Hamas accepted [the roadmap] to call Netanyahu’s bluff,” a senior Arab mediator told The New Arab. “They knew he would not comply.”

Israel's grip on Gaza

Despite the Board of Peace rewriting the terms of the roadmap to Israel’s satisfaction, Netanyahu’s reluctance to accept it stems from the fact that any progress in Gaza would threaten the far-right coalition that keeps him in power.

The Israeli Prime Minister promised his base ethnic cleansing in the Palestinian territory. Half of his coalition ministers and Knesset members recently marched for rebuilding Jewish-only settlements in Gaza, while Israel’s Defence Minister is campaigning on how he wiped out entire Palestinian cities.

Even if Hamas disarms without any Israeli withdrawal or suspension of airstrikes, the roadmap remains a nonstarter for Israel because it would constrain its ability to control Gaza.

For instance, under the roadmap, Israel would have to allow the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) to enter the enclave along with an International Stabilisation Force (ISF) to collect weapons.

The Israeli government views this as a nightmare scenario, because the presence of international forces on the ground would make it difficult for Israel to retain military operational freedom in Gaza.

That is why Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich warned that a multinational force in Gaza would be “dangerous for Israel” because it “will monitor us, separate us from Hamas and restrict [Israeli military] activity in the Strip”.

Likewise, the roadmap would oblige Israel to fulfil its obligations under Phase One of the Trump 20-point ceasefire plan before or alongside Hamas’s disarmament.

Those obligations include allowing a minimum of 600 trucks of humanitarian aid to cross into Gaza daily as well as 60,000 temporary housing units and 200,000 tents, while allowing the repair of basic infrastructure such as electricity, water, sewage, roads, hospitals, and bakeries.

But this would negate Israel’s policy to keep Gaza "destroyed for generations to come," as put by former Israeli General Giora Eiland.

Even minimal humanitarian measures that would make Gaza less uninhabitable are viewed by Israel as an existential threat. Its war, which has cost more than $140 billion, was explicitly aimed at transforming the enclave into an apocalyptic wasteland, leaving Palestinians with no option but to leave.

The status quo suits Israel

A former senior Israeli official, who had until 2024 worked closely with Netanyahu, told The New Arab that the Israeli premier prefers the current stalemate over making any “big changes.”

“We have all the leverage, we have the upper hand, what’s the incentive for us to engage?” he said.

The former official explained that Israel is comfortable with the current status quo in Gaza because it allows it to retain control of a depopulated 70% of the enclave, while avoiding the cost of feeding and sheltering its displaced population.

Similarly, the façade of the ceasefire means Hamas cannot attack Israeli troops behind the ‘Yellow Line’, so Israel doesn’t need to station a significant number of troops to defend the area.

Two senior officials from mediating Arab countries told The New Arab that the current status quo is ideal for Israel, with no changes in Gaza expected at least until after the October elections.

One official said that their expectation for the Trump plan has from the start been to “reduce the killing, get more food in, and prevent ethnic cleansing”.

The other official told The New Arab that the only way to move forward with the roadmap is to “drag Israel kicking and screaming”, but Trump’s Board of Peace has so far exerted no meaningful pressure on Netanyahu.

Israel's opposition isn't any better

The former Israeli official cautioned against any optimism over the likelihood of Israeli opposition parties winning in the upcoming elections.

“The opposition is attacking Netanyahu from the right, not the left. They are saying he’s about to squander the achievements in Gaza and bow down to Trump,” he told The New Arab. “They are promising to be tougher.”

The veteran Israeli politician Haim Ramon even warned that “people who choose [Naftali] Bennett are actually choosing another Netanyahu - only more extreme”.

He added that Israeli opposition leaders such as Bennett or Avigdor Lieberman “may be trying to present themselves as centre or ‘moderate’ right-wing, but in reality, they are political hawks, advocates of the complete Land of Israel, whose extremist views are identical to those of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich”.

Bennett, for reference, once infamously bragged: “I already killed lots of Arabs in my life, and there is absolutely no problem with that.”

A senior Arab official from a mediating country told The New Arab that if the opposition wins, it could complicate the situation in Gaza even further.

“If [Gadi] Eisenkot becomes prime minister, the international pressure on Israel would disappear, and we’d get told we need to give him time and space to consolidate his regime to prevent Netanyahu from returning to power.”

Muhammad Shehada is a Palestinian writer and analyst from Gaza and the EU Affairs Manager at Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor

Follow him on Twitter: @muhammadshehad2

Edited by Charlie Hoyle