Could US retaliate against UK over Israeli settlement sanctions?

The UK's landmark decision to sanction Israeli settlers marks a significant shift in Middle East foreign policy, but could the move expose London to retaliation from the United States over its support for ally Israel?

The possibility emerged after US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee warned of "significant" repercussions if Britain imposed a "boycott and sanctions" on Israeli targets.

Israel has already responded furiously to the measures, including with plans to close the British consulate in East Jerusalem.

Israel also announced that Britain would no longer be permitted to train Palestinian security forces in the West Bank, while 12 British lawmakers and other nationals, including former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, would be barred from entering the country.

But analysts who spoke to The New Arab said the prospect of Washington following Israel with punitive action against Britain is more complicated, particularly given conflicting signals from the Trump administration amid escalating Israeli settler violence in the West Bank.

What has Washington actually said?

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that Washington would not follow the UK in imposing new measures related to Israeli settlements in the West Bank, but stopped short of directly criticising London's decision.

Rubio's comments contrasted with those of US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, who told the BBC that if Britain imposed a "boycott and sanctions" on Israeli targets, "the repercussions are going to be significant".

Michael Hanna, US programme director at the International Crisis Group, told The New Arab that Rubio's comments carry greater official weight given his position as Secretary of State.

He said the remarks suggested that no major shift in US policy was imminent, indicating that the Trump administration may tolerate the UK's actions for now.

This comes as Axios reported, citing a White House official, that Huckabee's comments were not coordinated with either the White House or State Department and did not reflect the administration's policy.

The report also said US President Donald Trump did not push back against British plans to sanction Israeli settlements when he was briefed on the proposal by British Prime Minister Andy Burnham during private conversations ahead of Tuesday's announcement.

"If we don't see further action and Rubio's stated policy is in fact what prevails, I think it tells us that even this administration, which has been so acquiescent to Israel and Israeli maximalism, that even they have some friction over this issue," Hanna told The New Arab.

"It's reached such a point that even the Trump administration is not willing to stick its neck out to defend Israel on this one set of issues."

Could the US punish Britain?

Daniel Levy, president of the US/Middle East Project (USMEP), told The New Arab that punitive action against the UK was unlikely to be led by the current US administration, despite measures already introduced against entities sanctioning Israel.

"I expect there at most to be warnings rather than actual measures on that front," Levy said. "The fact that the UK showed leadership and brought other countries along and did not do this alone, I think further complicates the picture for the US."

The international nature of the move could therefore make retaliation against Britain more difficult, particularly as Washington is already grappling with several international crises.

"As unpredictable as Trump is, let's acknowledge the context – the US is putting out fires on multiple fronts, and while you can never rule out it starting another fire in its relations and going into another trade and economic sanctions battle, it wouldn't exactly be helpful to an American economy that is not going well, and that is really costing the Republican Party in the lead-up to the midterms," Levy said.

Levy also cited reports detailing US frustrations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over his handling of the Gaza war, Israel's offensive in Lebanon and hostilities with Iran.

However, he stressed that this did not necessarily translate into direct US pressure on the Israeli government.

"It may mean that the US is rather okay with others taking measures right now," Levy added.

Why could these sanctions matter?

The nature of the British measures could also prove important in determining Washington's response.

"Importantly, the UK measures announced were not just a ban on trade and goods, but also moved into the financial services sector, which is far more consequential," Levy told The New Arab.

"In that respect, there could be a knock-on effect with Europe and others in beginning to move the dial on more serious consequences."

He continued: "The measures announced were serious, but perhaps any US response will be reconsidered when it comes to the details of the sanctions regime being implemented, which, as the Foreign Secretary Miliband noted, will take a little time."

The Times of Israel, citing a White House official, reported that Washington could take further action in the coming days, although any response may be less severe than the measures threatened by Huckabee.

That leaves open the possibility of some form of US response even if Washington stops short of the kind of economic retaliation initially raised by the ambassador.

How has Israel responded?

Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Saar called Britain's latest action "morally distorted" and accused the UK of "blatant interference in the affairs of a sovereign state and its electoral process" ahead of next month's Israeli election.

During Tuesday's announcement, UK Foreign Secretary Miliband told lawmakers that, alongside banning imports of goods from Israeli settlements in the West Bank, Britain would also introduce measures against companies and individuals providing services to settlements, including "construction, infrastructure, financing, or real estate".

France and Canada also said they would ban imports of products from Israeli settlements, while nine other countries, including Denmark and Portugal, endorsed the British action.

Rights groups and politicians have widely described the sanctions as an important, albeit symbolic, step, particularly in relation to goods.

However, critics in the UK have called for more robust action against Israel's settlement project.

Britain, France and Canada were also among the countries that formally recognised the State of Palestine in 2025, as well as having previously imposed sanctions targeting settlements and Israeli ministers over accusations of inciting violence against Palestinians.