Could Syria's stalled SDF-Damascus deal trigger a new conflict?

Damascus, Syria - An attack that left three US nationals dead in the desert on 13 December has raised questions not only about possible extremism in the ranks of government forces, but also about attempts to sabotage an accord some have long considered stillborn.

As its 31 December deadline draws ever closer, the 10 March agreement between the central government in Syria and the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), in control of the oil-rich northeastern region, appears at risk.

The recent attack, which killed two US National Guard members and a civilian translator, occurred in the eastern part of the vast and mostly desert province of Homs during a visit to the city of Palmyra.

Accusations and recriminations abounded online. Some claimed that the attack showed that the only reliable US partner on the ground in Syria is the Kurdish-led forces under the AANES, known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Others asserted that the SDF make use of extremists in a similarly mendacious and manipulative manner as the former Assad regime did, and therefore cannot be trusted.

Many residents of the eastern Deir az-Zour and Raqqa provinces say they will be unable to return home until the SDF relinquishes control over their lands.

Some of these individuals told The New Arab that they expect the attack will be used as an “excuse to continue occupying” parts of Arab-majority areas of northeastern Syria by the US-backed, Kurdish-led SDF. A few were adamant that the SDF “must have facilitated” the attack, but none were able to provide any evidence.

Both Raqqa and Deir az-Zour are Arab majority, while the SDF leadership is Kurdish. Most of SDF’s top leaders spent decades in the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) before the formation of the SDF, while most of the rank and file are local Arabs in need of a salary. The PKK has long been a designated terrorist organisation by the US, the EU, and Turkey.

Local Arabs who The New Arab spoke to in recent months, who are still in the SDF or who had been in it before last December, claim that the SDF leadership remains highly ideological and subservient to PKK leader Abdallah Ocalan.

This, they say, will continue to pose an obstacle to the plan to try to reintegrate any part of the country under their control.

In March, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi was flown to Damascus to sign the agreement by the US, which has, over the past year, developed steadily warming relations with the government in Damascus.

The main points of the agreement include integration of AANES civil and military institutions into the Syrian state, the right of return and protection for Syrians displaced during the years of war, and support for the Syrian state against all security and territorial threats, including “remnants” from the Assad regime, many of whom reportedly fled to AANES-held territory following Assad’s ouster.

The US sees SDF-Damascus integration as essential to “the counter-ISIS mission, longstanding stability in Syria, and regional security,” Caroline Rose, director of Military and National Security Priorities at the US-based New Lines Institute, told The New Arab.

The US has warned the SDF/YPG to distance itself from the PKK, given tensions with NATO ally Turkey.

“The SDF-Damascus agreement has made very little progress since its signing on 10 March, with parties stalling, attempting to delay and buy time, and failing to reach consensus on political, security, and economic integration,” Rose said.

“This has raised fears for 2026 as the deadline approaches, particularly of military escalation,” she stressed, pointing to an incident in October when the Syrian army accused the SDF of killing two of its soldiers near the contested Tishreen Dam.

“The stalling has been in the face of great US pressure on both sides to accede to the deal, in favour of full integration, as well as Turkish demands such as that SDF members integrate into the new armed force individually rather than as a conglomerate.”

From an economic standpoint, observers note that the central government needs the resource-rich northeastern part of the country, while the AANES needs access to international financial and other markets.

“The northeast and the government in Damascus continue to focus on the most contentious topics and continue to ignore the operational aspects,” Syrian political economist and analyst Karam Shaar told The New Arab.

“For example, if you look at the economy, I would say that there are some areas where it is very clear that it is in the interests of both parties to integrate,” he added.

This includes the monetary and electricity sectors. “These should be apolitical, because the northeast knows that they have no chance whatsoever to access international markets unless they plug in through Damascus, that is, for finances and the banking sector and international investment and so on,” Shaar said.

"And the government in Damascus would very much love to be able to access its branches of the central bank and state banks and to reassert its monetary control over the northeast.”

The analyst stressed that focusing on the biggest issues first is not constructive, while operational aspects and confidence-building measures could lead to progress in the agreement.

“The economic benefits of reintegration are difficult to count, [but] they are huge,” Shaar said.

“For example, when it comes to oil, in the northeast there is excess capacity for production, and in government-held areas there is excess capacity for refinement,” he added. “So there are some clear win-wins for both parties. It’s unfortunate that they are still struggling to narrow their differences down.”

Syria’s northern neighbour is also watching the situation closely. Turkey’s former intelligence chief and now foreign minister, Hakan Fidan - whose father is Kurdish and from the southeastern part of the country - reportedly warned earlier this month that “there is a relationship, a proportion, between Israel’s movement in Syria and the SDF’s unwillingness” to abide by the terms of the 10 March agreement.

“This is not a decision the YPG took on its own,” he stressed, referring to the Kurdish PKK-linked faction forming the core of the SDF leadership, adding, “I hope there will not be another war.”

Progress on the agreement within the next few weeks may be crucial to ensuring that another major outbreak of violence does not occur.

Multiple Arab Sheikhs from SDF-held areas but currently in Damascus have meanwhile vowed they will not wait much longer before trying to take their lands east of the Euphrates River back, while the SDF are reportedly preparing for potential warfare through digging tunnels and stepping up recruitment.

Shelly Kittleson is a journalist specialising in the Middle East and Afghanistan. Her work has been published in several international, US, and Italian media outlets.

Follow her on X: @shellykittleson

Edited by Charlie Hoyle