Iraq expects to receive the medium-range KM-SAM air defence missile systems it ordered from South Korea by early 2026. At the same time, Baghdad has asserted it won’t allow Israel to use Iraqi airspace to bomb Iran again.
Iraq’s military announced in September that it would introduce the KM-SAM into service early next year. That acquisition will mark a substantial upgrade of Iraq’s existing short and medium-range American-made AN/TWQ-1 Avenger and Russian-made Pantsir-S1 systems.
Shortly after that announcement, Iraqi National Security Advisor Qasim al-Araji declared that Baghdad would ensure Israel doesn’t use Iraqi airspace in another air war against Iran.
Israeli warplanes repeatedly passed through Iraqi airspace during the June 12-day war. On 20 June, Iraq complained to the UN that 50 Israeli jets had violated its airspace earlier that day.
If another Israel-Iran war breaks out after Iraq acquires KM-SAMs, Baghdad would theoretically have a much greater capability against Israeli aircraft operating in Iraqi airspace.
“If Israeli warplanes or drones are by chance in Iraqi airspace, I think that Baghdad would at the very least target such craft to try to create risk and alter their behaviour,” Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, told The New Arab.
“Shooting them down might not be something Iraq is ready for yet, but an overall strategy to signal that Iraq’s airspace is not a free fire zone is certainly in Iraq’s overall interest.”
Ceng Sagnic, chief of analysis at the geopolitical consultancy firm TAM-C Solutions, believes the addition of KM-SAMs could “complicate” any potential future Israeli air campaign against Iran.
“However, it is hard to say whether the limited number in the foreseeable batches of batteries deployed from South Korea can effectively do more than this and prevent future airstrikes against Iran,” Sagnic told TNA.
The eight KM-SAM batteries Iraq eventually expects to deploy will not likely enable Baghdad to block any future Israeli air campaign against Iran that uses Iraqi airspace.
And that’s if Iraq can adequately maintain them.
Turkey acquired advanced S-400 missile systems from Russia in 2019. Under political pressure from America and NATO, Ankara never put them into service. They remain in storage six years later.
Sagnic foresees a similar fate for Iraq’s KM-SAMs, albeit for technical rather than political reasons.
“The acquisition of these systems is likely to remain symbolic, especially because Iraq lacks the technical capabilities to operate advanced military technologies,” he said.
“They are more likely to share the fate of Iraq’s F-16s, which are now mostly inoperable due to a lack of maintenance and skilled personnel.”
Without “sufficiently skilled personnel,” Sagnic doubts the KM-SAMs will ultimately do more than “secure small areas around Baghdad” and prove “ineffective against modern militaries” like Israel’s.
“The Iraqi government is aware of these limitations and is likely to refrain from risking an investment of $2.8 billion,” he said.
Aside from a potential clash between Israel and Iraq over future airspace violations, there is also the militia factor.
In his 26 September address to the UN, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu listed all of Israel’s adversaries that have faced defeat over the past two years. He then briefly mentioned the Iran-backed militias within Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), declaring “they’re still deterred” before warning, “and their leaders, if they attack Israel, will also be gone”.
The PMF responded by declaring that it’s ready for any Israeli attack. “Israel has seen only part of the factions’ capabilities,” declared PMF official Mohammad al-Freiji.
The Iran-backed PMF factions stayed out of the June war. These groups had targeted US troops and Israel with drones and cruise missiles in response to the Israeli war in Gaza. However, they largely ceased attacking after the US responded to the killing of its troops in early 2024 with large-scale airstrikes.
“I tend to think the Israelis will want to ignore them unless there is another major capabilities upgrade for the PMF and they demonstrate a tighter cohesion with Iran’s defence strategy than they did in June,” said RANE’s Bohl.
“While we can’t rule out that Israel would hit Iraqi air defences after the diplomatic snafu in Doha last month, I don’t think Israel would be eager to expand its conflict with Iran and other militants to yet another neutral country.”
Both Bohl and Sagnic see America’s position determining whether Israel strikes Iraq’s KM-SAMs or Iraq uses them against intruding Israeli aircraft.
“I think Iraq would try to intercept missiles or warplanes entering their airspace without authorisation and, given Israel’s disinterest in escalating against Iraq, might get away with doing so under most circumstances,” Bohl said.
Iraq could look away from Israeli activity in light of any full-scale escalation, the analyst said, particularly if it came under American pressure.
“In other words, though this is a step towards some Iraqi airspace sovereignty, Baghdad still has a long way to go before it’s strong enough to actually close its skies to Israeli violations,” Bohl added. “In the future conflicts that might arise, Iraq will posture as a bystander and rely on the US as a guarantor of last resort for security.”
Sagnic highlighted “two types of targets” for Israel in Iraq: those protected and unprotected by the US.
“PMF elements and anything belonging to them are open season for Israel to strike, as long as Iraqi government elements are spared,” he said. “Air defence batteries, however, are likely to be off-limits for Israel without a green light from Washington,” he added.
“Such a green light could only come if these batteries were deployed to hinder a future Israeli-American operation against Iran, which I believe Baghdad will be hesitant to do.”
Sagnic pointed out that Israel’s decision not to strike PMF targets in Iraq has nothing to do with Baghdad’s present or future military capabilities. Their “inaction policy toward Israel”, in marked contrast with other regional Iran-backed groups, has so far spared them from Israeli strikes.
“There is only one risk: if Iran seeks to use these batteries for reverse engineering or to deploy its own personnel to operate them as part of Iran’s air defences in the event of a new round of conflict with Israel,” Sagnic said.
“In that case, the meaning of this acquisition could go well beyond being politically symbolic and could turn into a national security risk for Israel.”
Even if Israel does ultimately target the PMF on Iraqi territory, it might not have an exhaustive target list.
“The set of targets Israel may strike in Iraq - some key Iran-backed militia leaders, plus a missile and munitions storage sites and bases - is much more limited than in Iran,” Alex Almeida, a security analyst at the energy consultancy Horizon Engage, told TNA. “So, the Israelis may be able to handle them with over-the-horizon strikes,” he added.
“That said, it’s quite possible Israel could decide to take out the KM-SAMs or sabotage them with close-in drone hits, if only to keep the air corridor to Iran open,” Almeida added.
“Though it’s doubtful whether Baghdad would risk its new flagship air defence systems by actually engaging Israeli aircraft.”
More broadly, Sagnic sees Iraq’s eastern neighbour as the elephant in the room.
“Iran has spared Iraq from the conflict with Israel, as Iraq’s oil-dependent economy is currently the only sanctions-free source of funds and trade for Tehran,” he said. “The protection of this precious but vulnerable economic infrastructure in Iraq is at the forefront of Iran’s policy to avoid a conflict with Israel.”
With or without Baghdad’s approval, PMF militias could easily be ordered to join the Houthis, Hezbollah, and the IRGC, and the Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani could do virtually nothing to stop it, according to Sagnic.
This policy is “best reflected” in the recent release of Elizabeth Tsurkov, the Israeli hostage held by the Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq.
“In short, the central Iraqi government would undoubtedly want to avoid a conflict with Israel,” he said. “But the decision to do so was made in Tehran, not Baghdad.”
Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist based in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, who writes about Middle East affairs
Follow him on X: @pauliddon