Israel's airstrikes on Qatar last week have added to growing tensions with Egypt, with Cairo viewing the targeted assassination of Hamas leaders as a worrying escalation that could potentially put it in Tel Aviv’s line of fire.
Egypt reportedly warned in exchanges with the US that if Israel attacks Hamas leaders on its territory, the "gates of hell" would open. It then decided to reduce security coordination with Tel Aviv.
Even before the Israeli strikes in Doha, tensions were mounting between Cairo and Tel Aviv, raising speculation about the future trajectory of their relations. The two capitals are bound together by a fragile peace deal they signed in 1979, following four wars between them.
Almost 45 years later, the accord lacks both public acceptance and economic integration. Developments in recent months have sparked further debate about the ability of the agreement to hold.
Egypt has recently been escalating its criticism of Israel's war in Gaza, decrying the limits the Israeli army puts on the entry of humanitarian aid into the war-shattered Palestinian territory. It has also repeatedly warned against the consequences of driving Gaza's population southward near the Egyptian border.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who described the Israeli war in Gaza as "systematic genocide", said his country would not become a gateway for the displacement of the territory's population.
Cairo’s anger has clearly made an impact in Tel Aviv, with Israel threatening to freeze a multibillion-dollar gas deal with Egypt. The agreement, thought to be worth $35 billion, would have filled the yawning gap between Egypt’s production and consumption of natural gas.
Earlier this month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had accused Egypt of imprisoning Palestinians in Gaza after Cairo made clear the mass forced displacement was a red line.
"Tensions have been growing between the two sides for some time now, potentially affecting regional security and stability," Egyptian political researcher Mohamed Rabie al-Dehi told The New Arab.
"Israel's ruthless war in Gaza and Netanyahu's remarks about what is known as the Greater Israel vision are all causing anger in Egypt."
Triggers for war
Egypt’s anger is rooted in Israel's plan to displace the people of Gaza, an idea first floated at the beginning of the war by some Israeli politicians, and now state policy backed by the Trump administration.
The Israeli army is now forcing hundreds of thousands of people to leave Gaza City and head south to a humanitarian zone near the Egyptian border, where hundreds of thousands of other Palestinians have already been displaced.
"Egypt's fears about an exodus of the residents of Gaza into Sinai are credible," al-Dehi said. "Such an exodus will put Egypt in a very difficult situation and threaten regional security, in general."
Egyptian forces deployed along the border with Gaza would face a dilemma, observers say. Opening fire on innocent civilians fleeing death, destruction, and hunger would be calamitous, while the permanent displacement of Palestinians in Sinai would create inevitable security and economic problems.
In March this year, Sisi alluded to what he described as an infringement of the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty if Israel were to forcibly displace Palestinians into Sinai. To prevent such a scenario, Egypt is increasing its troop presence in Sinai, but this is adding to tensions with Israel, which views the military deployment as a violation of Camp David.
The limits Israel puts on the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza have also unsettled Cairo, which is under intense pressure at home and abroad.
Egyptian embassies in a number of countries have witnessed a series of protests in recent weeks, with the demonstrators accusing Egyptian authorities of failing to do enough to offer aid to the Palestinians.
The demonstrations have ruffled Egypt's feathers at the highest level, prompting a series of reactions from Cairo, including a television appearance by the Egyptian president, where he accused Israel, which has been occupying the Gaza side of the border with Egypt since May last year, of obstructing aid entry.
The Egyptian government has also been organising visits to the Rafah crossing on the border with Gaza for foreign officials and media to give them a first-hand account of Cairo’s efforts to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza.
Powder kegs
These issues, analysts in Cairo said, are all potential flashpoints where pressure could lead to a rapid escalation.
"Egypt is deeply concerned about what is happening in Gaza, especially Israeli plans to drive the population towards the Egyptian border," retired Egyptian army general, Mohamed al-Ghabari, told TNA. "Israel also uses humanitarian aid to tighten the noose around Gaza City."
Israel has, meanwhile, been warily watching as Egypt increases its troop presence in Sinai, with a growing number of Israeli officials and writers warning against the additional deployments.
There are fears that Israel could start viewing these deployments not as an Egyptian measure against the displacement of Palestinians or the infiltration of militant elements from Gaza into Sinai, but as a form of preparation for an attack.
Any pre-emptive Israeli action against Egyptian troops in Sinai would be catastrophic, as it could precipitate an Egyptian response, possibly setting off a full-fledged war between the two sides.
The latest Israeli airstrikes in Qatar have also raised the possibility of Egypt taking on the entire task of mediating a ceasefire in Gaza, especially if Doha decides to end its mediation role.
Together with the US and Qatar, Egypt has been working since the beginning of the war in Gaza to help the two sides reach a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal. If Egypt assumes full responsibility for this, it will have to receive Hamas’s political leaders in Cairo.
Given Netanyahu's earlier warning that his country would target the Hamas leadership everywhere and anywhere, an attack on Hamas leaders in Cairo could open the door to a wider military confrontation.
Fatigue
Despite all these tensions, Egypt and Israel likely do not want to see their differences evolve into a military confrontation, analysts in Cairo say. If the Egyptian-Israeli peace accords have done anything useful over the past 45 years, it is to have prevented a new war between the two countries.
"The peace treaty suppresses Egypt's reactions in the face of Israel's intransigence in the region," Ahmed Youssef, a professor of political science at Cairo University, told TNA.
"It commits Egypt to the non-use of military options in dealing with Israeli violations in other Arab countries."
He noted, however, that Egypt would be forced to defend itself in case of any Israeli attack, a possibility that could reduce the 1979 peace treaty to ashes.
Escalation, however, would require a deliberate crossing of red lines, with current trends pointing to contained hostility rather than open conflict.
At the same time, sustained US involvement and an end to the war in Gaza could prevent a rupture between Cairo and Tel Aviv in the future, especially if Washington puts real pressure on Israel.
Egypt, meanwhile, is still struggling to fix a faltering economy, a factor seen by most observers as crucial in ruling out military adventures by decision-makers. For its part, Israel, already waging a multi-front war for the past two years, is likely unable to open a new front with a country as militarily powerful as Egypt.
"The war in Gaza and Israel's other wars in the region have totally exhausted the Israeli army," Youssef said. "This means that Israel cannot open any new war fronts, at least for the time being."
Saleh Salem is an Egyptian journalist