After the Gaza ceasefire, what's next for Yemen's war?

When world leaders arrived in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt to sign the Gaza peace agreement last week, a sense of optimism prevailed.

The war on Gaza, defined as a genocide by the United Nations, has dominated the Middle East for two years, with Israel’s military operations expanding into the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.

Its impact was also acutely felt in Yemen, whose conflict has been a top regional priority since 2014. Since October 2023, however, diplomatic efforts to end the war have nearly completely lost momentum.

For a nation mired in conflict for 11 years before being drawn into the turmoil of Israel’s multi-front war, the country now nervously waits to see what Gaza's fragile truce could mean.

The Houthi-Israel war is far from over

Abdulsalam Mohammed, the head of the Abaad Studies and Research Center, says a cessation or pause to the Gaza war will not guarantee the end of Israeli military operations in Yemen.

"As the implementation of the Gaza peace agreement is underway, Israel now has time, and it can focus on the Houthis. Israel has not put aside the Houthi threat,” he told The New Arab.

“It seeks to have a presence in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb. So, its battle in Yemen is not over." 

Over the last two years, the Houthi movement, the de facto authority in Sanaa since 2015, has launched hundreds of missile and drone attacks on Israel and Israel-linked ships in the Red Sea.

According to estimates, 130 Houthi missiles and over 150 explosive-laden drones have been fired at Israel, including at Tel Aviv and Ben Gurion Airport, causing deaths, injuries, material damage, and forcing thousands of Israelis into shelters.

The group has claimed that these attacks, which continued right up until the ceasefire came into effect, were an act of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.

Israel has repeatedly bombed Yemen over the past two years, especially Houthi-controlled areas, targeting infrastructure such as ports, power stations, and fuel depots.

In a dramatic escalation in August, Tel Aviv killed Ahmed al-Rahawi, the prime minister of the de facto Houthi regime in Sanaa. His death marked the most senior Ansar Allah figure killed in US-Israeli military operations.

Last week, the Houthis also confirmed that their chief of staff, Major General Mohammed al-Ghamari, had been killed in an Israeli strike several weeks earlier. Israel confirmed that al-Ghamari was killed in the same August attack as the Houthi PM.

“Israel’s determined hand will reach everyone who has tried to harm us and made it their goal to destroy Israel,” a statement from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said at the time.

This rhetoric, together with Israel’s track record, suggests that Tel Aviv’s military campaign is far from over.

The Houthis are prepared for war

Since toppling the UN-recognised government in Sanaa in 2015, the Houthis have waged wars against local rivals and foreign powers, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The fighting paused in April 2022 following a UN-sponsored truce, with their involvement in the Gaza conflict then lasting two years.

So far, they have not shown any sign of capitulation or fatigue. War, political observers say, is a strategy for the movement’s survival and growth.

“The Houthis seem intent on keeping themselves occupied with war,” analyst Abdulsalam Mohammed told TNA.

“Fighting allows them to distract the public from focusing on internal issues such as the economy and the provision of basic services in the territories under their control.”

Last week, Houthi official Hizam Alasad, a member of the Houthi Supreme Political Council in Sanaa, called on Saudi Arabia to "see reason" and stop its role in perpetuating the plight of Yemenis, warning that the resumption of attacks on the Kingdom remains an option.

"If the Saudi [leadership] keeps [politically] manoeuvring, [we] will restore our rights in our approach and then the world will hear the loud wailing of Aramco and Neom," Alasad said.

In 2019, the Houthis launched an attack involving 10 drones that hit refineries in Abqaiq and Khurais in eastern Saudi Arabia, creating huge fires in the oil facilities.

In a previous statement, Houthi-appointed Defence Minister Mohammed al-Atifi warned Saudi Arabia, saying the sky will “rain drones and missiles, and the world’s entire defence systems will not save you”.

Although Houthi involvement in the Gaza war has cost them senior members and military equipment, they have leveraged it domestically and regionally to portray themselves as defenders of Palestine.

"The Houthis have exploited the Gaza war to promote themselves as a key regional power,” Fuad Mussed, a Yemeni political researcher and author, told TNA.

“They have attracted thousands of new fighters, and now they are prepared for a wide ground war.”

Reviving Yemen's peace talks

Once the Gaza peace agreement was signed, diplomatic efforts to revive peace negotiations in Yemen resumed. 

"The Yemeni question was sidelined during the Gaza war. With the tentative calm in the enclave, it will be raised and discussed," said analyst Abdulsalam Mohammed. 

On 15 October, the UN Special Envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, met in Riyadh with the Saudi Ambassador to Yemen, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Ambassador to Yemen, ambassadors of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (P5), and members of the international diplomatic community.

Grundberg indicated that the recently brokered ceasefire in Gaza opens a window of opportunity to boost regional stability, revive momentum toward peace in Yemen, create conditions for a sustained de-escalation, and push forward an inclusive political process.

He emphasised the need to capitalise on this opportunity through a coordinated approach.

The Yemeni government is genuinely ready for peace talks, according Mussed, but he remains sceptical of the Houthis’ intentions.

“The Houthis attend peace talks merely to buy time, not to reach real solutions. The outcomes of previous negotiation rounds over the past years are proof of that,” the political researcher said.

Following the implementation of Phase 1 prisoner releases in Gaza, the Houthis also proposed a prisoner exchange with the Yemeni government.

"We hope the Saudi regime and its mercenaries [in Yemen] stop obstructing and complicating the prisoners' issue in our country,” Abdulqader Almurtadha,  head of the Houthi National Committee for Prisoners’ Affairs, wrote on X.

"We are ready to enter a comprehensive deal to release all prisoners," he emphasised.

But despite these overtures, the conflict in Yemen remains volatile.

“Local rivals appear poised for renewed conflict. Anti-Houthi forces are waiting for the green light from foreign powers - particularly the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates,” said Mohammed.

“Once approval is granted, a full-scale war could erupt.”

Khalil Karim is a freelance journalist from Yemen